THE VIRUS VOTERS — Joe Biden always said he’d “follow the science” on Covid, and with few exceptions — such as the White House’s premature declaration of victory over the pandemic — he’s spent the past year doing just that, largely with the support of Democrats in Congress and in the states. But from the beginning, politicians have weighed the politics of the pandemic along with the science. And in a Monmouth University poll last week, 7 in 10 Americans — including 47 percent of Democrats — agreed with the idea that “it’s time we accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives.” The poll was in line with other surveys suggesting people are tired of their restriction-altered realities. Almost on cue, Democratic-led states throughout the country started paring back mandates. Biden was elected president in part — perhaps largely — because he promised to defeat the virus, to take more aggressive measures instead of punting the problem to the nation’s governors, as President Donald Trump had done. But since he took office, the pandemic has been a persistent drag on Biden’s presidency. Public approval of his handling of the virus has fallen underwater. Republican strategists have described the pandemic to Nightly as a godsend, with its effects on both inflation and education, two of voters’ top concerns, as well as on Biden’s dismal public approval ratings. GOP strategists are vowing to run on unpopular Covid restrictions even if they’ve been taken away. They gleefully predict that Biden’s party will pay a price in the midterm elections for, in their view, waiting too long. “They are waving the white freaking flag, after they’ve completely lost the war and have nothing else to do besides retreat,” said Jeff Roe, the Republican strategist who managed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign in 2016 and helped elect Glenn Youngkin governor of Virginia last year. “The female suburban independent, college educated voter? Good luck. Add people who are married with kids, and put them in the Republican camp. [Democrats] did more damage to that coalition in the last 14 months than any Republican has done in the last 14 years.” Fred Davis, a Republican ad maker, said that in the November elections, “People will remember that the supply chain was broken down, that kids didn’t go to school … that the world closed up.” The prospect that people will remember school shutdowns and mask mandates — and punish Democrats for them — is one possible outcome of pandemic politics, assuming the lull continues. But let’s stipulate that, in November, children aren’t wearing masks in schools, that families have spent the summer posing for pictures at Disney World and hugging Mickey Mouse. In that Clorox-free scenario, it’s not clear that Republicans are the party that will gain an advantage. Take Covid away, and it’s not unreasonable to think the mood of the electorate may improve, and that Biden’s approval ratings might tick up — and perhaps help to limit Democrats’ losses in the House. “If Covid is in the rearview mirror and there’s a return to, quote, normal, whatever normal is, the occupant of the White House will benefit,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. The other possibility — the more likely one, judging by recent history — is that if the pandemic really does subside, it may quickly fade from our politics altogether. In the run-up to last year’s gubernatorial race in Virginia, politicians and strategists of both parties were bracing for the pandemic to feature heavily. But several weeks before the election, as Covid conditions improved, polling showed Covid receding as a priority for voters. Campaign advertising related to the pandemic nearly vanished. And by the time Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, exit polls showed Covid lagging behind education and the economy and jobs as a top issue of concern. The pandemic still mattered to the extent that it infected those facets of life. But as a stand-alone issue, it was not all that salient. This year, a pandemic-stayed November may look a lot like that — with Republicans likely to win back the House, but not because of Covid. Republicans probably don’t need it. They will have Biden’s legislative difficulties to talk about — and gas prices and crime and critical race theory. And then there’s whatever else happens — or whatever else the right can dream up — in the nine months before the election. By November, voters may have other things to worry about. “I think what will be top on their minds is what they’re seeing — inflation, gas prices,” said Bob Heckman, a Republican consultant who has worked on nine presidential campaigns. “I don’t even think they’ll be thinking about Covid, to be honest.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com, or on Twitter at @davidsiders.
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