POLITICO NIGHTLY: What’s full in Florida — besides hospitals

BY MARC CAPUTO Presented by THE COAST ISN’T CLEAR — Welcome to Florida, a state so open for business these days that our hotels are almost as full as our hospitals. The juxtaposition of our tourism and Covid numbers — both as high as ever — illuminate the strange moment the Sunshine State finds itself in right now: a vacation hotspot as well as a coronavirus hot zone. Despite all the understandably gloomy and alarming headlines and cable-news punditry on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s laissez faire approach to coronavirus, there’s been a surprising lack of discussion about a basic tenet of epidemiology: More people often means more infections. If you live in Florida or vacation here, it’s hard to ignore just how packed the state has been this summer, one of about five interlocking factors that have established Florida as the nation’s most notorious Covid hotspot. As vaccinations climbed and coronavirus cases fell earlier this year, Florida’s tourism industry was primed for a comeback — and therefore an influx of people. The state was understandably seen as lax on Covid precautions, so the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike were ready to hit the 663 miles of beach in the state. Airlines responded to the demand by adding more leisure flights to Florida, with one executive telling Bloomberg in February that “everything we do stems from demand.” Fireworks are seen during Rolling Loud at Hard Rock Stadium on July 23 in Miami Gardens, Fla. | Rich Fury/Getty Images Florida also spent an additional $25 million from the federal government to lure people to the state. According to Jason Salemi, a University of South Florida epidemiologist who runs the premier website for Covid data in Florida: “A lot of people had pandemic fatigue. They wanted to go somewhere for the summer before school starts. And a lot of people decided to come to Florida.” Florida International University epidemiologist Aileen Marty worries about who’s coming: “It’s important to remember that if you give a message to people that we don’t care about the virus here, you’ll attract more people who have that mindset.” By Memorial Day, the cumulative number of hotel rooms sold in Florida began exceeding the total number at the same time in 2019 — before the pandemic — according to an analysis from Visit Florida, the state tourism agency. By the week of July 25, the most recent for which data are available, the state notched the “10th consecutive week that rooms sold topped the number sold during the comparable week in 2019.” Along with the surge in visitors came an alarming increase in coronavirus cases, which began exponentially skyrocketing around Independence Day. The state has started to shatter hospitalization records as well. As of July 25, according to Salemi’s data, almost 7,400 Florida hospital patients were being treated for Covid. Today, it’s almost 25,000, about 25 percent of all hospitalizations in the state. About 83 percent of hospital beds statewide are occupied, and some systems are starting to cancel elective surgeries. Florida hotels, meanwhile, have been 75 percent full or more. To be clear, it’s foolhardy and false to peg Florida’s explosion in Covid cases solely on tourists. While all the visitors coming to the state certainly played a role, epidemiologists and experts say there are at least four other interlocking factors that contributed to Florida’s current predicament: 1) the highly transmittable Delta variant; 2) DeSantis’s management of the pandemic; 3) the sheer number of the unvaccinated (about 8 million vaccine-eligible people plus 2.8 million more children who aren’t eligible); 4) the hot weather that’s leading more people indoors in poorly ventilated rooms where the virus spreads. Unless DeSantis has a marked change in philosophy, don’t expect state policy to change. DeSantis has reiterated his opposition to mask mandates, even for schools, though the Delta variant is leading to more cases among kids and school is about to start as cases are higher than ever. He’s still an opponent of vaccine passports. He has shown no willingness to try to incentivize more vaccinations, which he began paying less interest to after having a more hands-on approach with seniors earlier in the year. He has long been a proponent of herd immunity, which the state is de facto experimenting with, and has solicited the input of vaccine skeptics and mask opponents. DeSantis said Friday that “these waves ebb and flow” but “it’s not something that government can control.” Today, his office threatened to withhold the salaries of superintendents and school board members who impose mask mandates. DeSantis is also disinclined to listen to critics, many of whom predicted disproportionately terrible outcomes for Florida after two other waves rolled through the state, which then emerged in the middle of the pack for Covid death rate and unemployment. In the short term, all of the infections, hospitalizations, deaths and wall-to-wall media coverage of Covid will have an effect on the tourism industry at least. In an email accompanying its otherwise rosy analysis, Visit Florida noted that “there are some significant headwinds that could start to have an impact over the next few weeks and into the fall months. A Destination Analysts survey from the week of July 26 suggests that a quarter of Americans have postponed a trip due specifically to the Delta variant, and nearly a fifth have cancelled a trip.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. It’s not just Florida: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has asked the state’s hospitals to postpone elective medical procedures and announced that the state is looking for out-of-state medical workers to help with the influx of Covid patients. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mcaputo@politico.com and on Twitter at @MarcACaputo.   A message from AT&T: Accessible, affordable broadband helps communities reach their American Dream. That’s why AT&T is making a $2 billion, 3-year commitment toward helping close the digital divide, so more low-income families have the ability to succeed. Find out how.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Pentagon will seek to mandate Covid vaccine for 1.4 million troops: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will seek to make the Covid-19 vaccine mandatory for all of its 1.4 million service members by mid-September , a date that could be accelerated if needed, according to a new memo from the Pentagon chief released today. — Khanna won’t challenge Padilla for Senate, ends intraparty threat from left: Rep. Ro Khanna announced his endorsement of Sen. Alex Padilla today , ending speculation that the progressive Silicon Valley Democrat would mount an intraparty challenge to Padilla next year. Padilla (D-Calif.) this year became the first Latino to serve as a senator from California when he was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to fill the seat vacated by Kamala Harris when she became vice president. Padilla is a heavy favorite to win in 2022, but Khanna had yet to endorse him until today. He was the last of California’s 42 House Democrats to do so. — Judge mulls blocking Biden’s new eviction ban: A federal judge suggested today that the Biden administration was engaging in legal “gamesmanship” in order to resurrect a pandemic-related eviction ban despite an indication from the Supreme Court that the measure was unlawful. U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich made the pointed remark at a hearing on a request by real estate brokers and landlords to block the new policy the CDC rolled out last week. Biden let a previous eviction moratorium expire at the end of July but revived the restrictions Tuesday after he came under intense pressure from liberal lawmakers and activists. — Assembly to proceed with Cuomo impeachment ‘with all due haste’: New York lawmakers will take the next few weeks to review the evidence and hear from experts as the state Assembly prepares to impeach Gov. Andrew Cuomo , leaders announced this afternoon. “Our goal is now to bring this matter to a conclusion with all due haste,” Speaker Carl Heastie said. — Space Force wary of taking over UFO mission: The Pentagon is considering giving the Space Force a greater role in a stepped-up effort to track and investigate reports of UFOs. But the newest military branch isn’t over the moon about the idea . Space Force leaders are still struggling to rebrand an organization that has been lampooned since before its birth. Now, they are conflicted about becoming the military’s go-to on what the Pentagon now calls “unmanned aerial phenomena,” according to five current and former officials taking part in the discussions.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     AROUND THE NATION THE TEX DEM DILEMMA — Democratic state representatives in Texas united to grind the state legislature to a halt last month. But they’re having trouble rallying around what to do next, Marissa Martinez writes. The Democrats fled the state in mid-July to deny Republicans a quorum in the state House through the end of a special legislative session, waiting out legislation that would add new restrictions on voting after the 2020 election. As promised, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott called a new legislative session as soon as the previous one expired. Though the group is still united around opposing the GOP’s elections bills, the Democrats appear uncertain who exactly is going to remain off the House floor and who has signed onto a speculative lawsuit trying to preserve the quorum break. Of the more than 50 Democratic lawmakers who originally fled, at least 26 have said they plan to remain in the nation’s capital to continue advocating for voting rights with congressional leaders — though Congress’ summer recess is about to begin.   A message from AT&T:     AROUND THE WORLD TEHRAN’S AWKWARD STOCKHOLM JOURNEY — Iraj Mesdaghi, a former political prisoner in one of Iran’s most notorious jails, thinks he has found one of his captors. On Tuesday, that alleged jailer will appear in a Stockholm courtroom. Hamid Noury is accused of playing a key role in the execution of scores of dissidents — as well as the torture of Mesdaghi and many others — at the Gohardasht prison, outside Iran’s capital Tehran, in a 1988 purge. “Noury had an active role in that massacre,” Mesdaghi said. “I saw him, I know him well.” Noury denies the charges. The trial has been headline news in Sweden because of the seriousness of the charges that Noury faces — “gross crimes against international law and murder” — and its scale: The police case documents name 38 plaintiffs and the main hearing is expected to continue until April 2022 with three sessions a week. The case also promises to offer a rare insight into atrocities allegedly committed by the Iranian state during one the darkest periods in its modern history — summer 1988 — when reports by human rights organizations say thousands of members of political opposition groups were executed on the orders of supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini. The case is particularly sensitive for Iran now because its new president, Ebrahim Raisi, has long stood accused of being a central figure in the massacre, as a member of a committee that ruled who should be killed and who should be spared during the purge. A line of vehicles wait to enter Canada at the Peace Arch border crossing on Aug. 9 in Blaine, Wash. | Elaine Thompson/AP Photo WOE CANADA — Canada opened to fully vaccinated Americans today, increasing pressure on the Biden administration to respond in kind to its northern neighbor, Sue Allan writes. “The Biden administration should reciprocate this policy decision — given the high rate of vaccination across Canada — without further delay,” U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow said in a statement from Washington. “Every month that travel remains stagnant, the U.S. loses $1.5 billion in potential travel exports and leaves countless American businesses vulnerable.” Even as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared plans to welcome fully vaxxed Americans, the Biden administration rolled over U.S. restrictions on nonessential travel until at least Aug. 21. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), co-chair of the Northern Border Caucus, used an essay in Barron’s to advocate for clarity and an update to U.S. travel policies. “This is not a partisan issue or one exclusive to states positioned along the border,” he wrote.   SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.     NIGHTLY NUMBER 1.1 degrees Celsius The current amount of global warming from the pre-industrial era. The planet’s top scientists said in a monumental report released today they have definitively linked greenhouse gas emissions, for the first time, to the type of disasters driven by a warmer climate that have touched every corner of the globe this year. PARTING WORDS NEWSOM TO DEMS: VOTE NOTHING ON QUESTION 2 — Newsom said today that Democrats should not vote for any of the 46 candidates vying to replace him in the upcoming recall election. Recall ballots contain two parts: an up-or-down vote on whether to retain Newsom and an open-ended question of who should replace him. Newsom said he was focused on prevailing on the first part and discouraged his base from taking sides on the second. “We’re just focusing on ‘no’ on the recall, leaving the rest blank,” Newsom said. Newsom’s admonition highlights the strategic gamble his campaign took in dissuading other prominent Democrats from running. Some Democratic officials and campaign operatives believed it was in Newsom’s interest to have a fallback Democrat on the ballot in case Newsom is ousted. But Newsom’s team emphasized party unity and warned that another Democratic candidate could help the recall succeed by fracturing the liberal electorate. As a result, recall ballots will list several prominent Republican candidates but no Democrats with political experience. If Democratic voters leave that second question blank, they could be ceding the question of Newsom’s successor to Republican voters and other recall supporters.   A message from AT&T: Susana Chávez became valedictorian of International High School at Langley Park while juggling numerous jobs throughout school. But what kept her powering through it all was her American Dream. 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