POLITICO NIGHTLY: The unvaxxed aren’t as partisan as you think

 

BY JOANNE KENEN Presented by With help from Ximena Bustillo Anti-vaccine protesters stage a protest outside of the San Diego Unified School District office to protest a forced vaccination mandate for students. | Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images THE TWO-FRONT VAX WAR — The highly politicized national dialogue over the unvaccinated goes like this: The unvaccinated are Trump loyalists , disproportionately rural, less educated and white. Their recalcitrance and denial has fueled the deadly Delta surge, threatening us all and obstructing our path toward “something-like-normal” life. It’s true. But it’s not the whole story. These partisan anti-vaxxers represent about 12 percent of the American adult population . That hasn’t dropped much since last winter, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Vaccine Monitor, which tracks immunization trends. But there’s another large and important group of unvaccinated — the still-hesitant, or what Kaiser dubs “the wait and see.” This is now 7 percent of the adult population — a drop from the 17 percent back in March, but still millions of people. The racial and ethnic gaps in this group have shrunk, according to data from KFF, Pew and the CDC. The new vaccine mandates, fear of the Delta variant and months of outreach, including among minorities, have helped boost immunization rates. By focusing our national dialogue on the hardcore ideological vax-refusers, we are doing a disservice to ourselves and to the vaccine hesitant, who remain vulnerable to the virus. In addition to getting hold-out adults protected, we need to get them to feel comfortable getting their children vaccinated, when those shots are authorized later this fall. As we celebrate signs that Delta may — may — be abating, we still need to get more shots in arms. And unlike the partisan Never Vaxers, some of the wait-and-see crowd is persuadable. On average, the members of the wait-and-see group are younger, lower-income and more urban than the people in the “definitely not” group. Both groups lean Republican, but the resistant group is more hard-core GOP. The hesitant group is more worried about a family member getting sick, and less likely to believe the news media has exaggerated the pandemic, explained Liz Hamel, Kaiser’s vice president and director of public opinion and survey research. This group’s vaccine skepticism is less intractable — but still a challenge to overcome, said Lisa Cooper, a Johns Hopkins physician/health equity researcher who was recently appointed to Biden’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology. The apprehension among the vax curious has many causes, ranging from fear of needles to religious beliefs to misplaced fears that the vaccines were dangerously “rushed” to market. Among people living in poverty and minorities, as Cooper points out, there are still large pools of distrust of the health care system. And some low income people are dealing with so many day to day crises and challenges — threats of eviction, joblessness, a family member with illness or addiction, to name just a few — that getting vaccinated just isn’t a priority. Getting them protected will require “time, work and patience,” Cooper said. It also requires remembering that not everyone who is unvaccinated is seeing the coronavirus through a politicized lens. Joanne Kenen, a former POLITICO health care editor and a contributing POLITICO writer, is the Commonwealth Fund Journalist in Residence at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author on Twitter at @joannekenen. Programming note: Nightly will not publish on Monday, Oct. 11. But don’t worry, we’ll be back and better than ever Tuesday, Oct. 12. A message from UnitedHealth Group: Research shows that social barriers – including access to stable housing and nutritious food – can impact up to 80% of health outcomes. UnitedHealth Group is committed to addressing social determinants of health and has helped create 12,000 homes since 2011 and distribute more than 100 million meals since the pandemic began. See how we’re helping to advance health equity.   ON THE HILL FOURTH DOWN, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY’RE GONNA PUNT — Democrats are planning to accept an offer from Mitch McConnell to let them raise the debt ceiling into December without a GOP filibuster, multiple senators said after a closed-door caucus meeting today. The move effectively kicks the can two months on the fight over the debt, Caitlin Emma, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine write. But even as Democrats accepted part of the Senate minority leader’s entreaties, they said they will not bend on rejecting his demands that they use the laborious process of budget reconciliation to pass a longer debt ceiling increase. Democrats accepted the deal because “Mitch McConnell finally saw the light” on offering a solution that could pass quickly, said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “We’re going to raise the debt ceiling and we’re going to go on and pass infrastructure,” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.). “We’re never going to do it through reconciliation.” Democrats’ decision tees up a vote as soon as tonight on the short-term debt patch. It also sets the stage for a year-end convergence of Congress’ major fiscal agenda items, with government funding currently set to expire on Dec. 3. After weeks of partisan jostling over GOP resistance to a stand-alone debt hike that Democrats warned put the nation at risk of default, the impasse appears to have ended in a pause rather than a resolution — as both sides claimed victory.   HAPPENING THURSDAY – POLITICO’S FIRST EVER DEFENSE FORUM : President Joe Biden is making critical shifts in the Pentagon’s priorities, including fully withdrawing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, scaling back U.S. military presence across the Middle East and rethinking the positioning of military forces around the world to focus more on China. Join POLITICO on Oct. 7 for our inaugural defense forum to talk to the decision makers in the White House, Congress, military, and defense industry who are reshaping American power abroad and redefining military readiness for the future of warfare. REGISTER HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? — White House says Covid-19 home-testing market to quadruple by year’s end: The White House announced today that the nation’s supply of at-home Covid-19 tests is on track to triple by early November , driven by recent government investments and the FDA’s emergency authorization of a test from ACON Laboratories. The Biden administration projects that even more tests should be available by the end of the year. — Former Trump DOJ No. 2 sits for interview with Jan. 6 committee: Richard Donoghue — formerly the Justice Department’s second-in-command — appeared for a closed-door interview on Friday with the select panel investigating Jan. 6, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The interview, one of the panel’s first, comes as its investigators accelerate their probe of the events leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Donoghue’s tenure at the Justice Department in the final days of the Trump administration has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers as they explore the former president’s attempts to pressure the department to interfere in the 2020 election.       — Supreme Court wrestles with eroding secrecy around U.S. torture tactics: The Supreme Court wrestled today with the role of U.S. courts in protecting the last remnants of secrecy around the increasingly well-known fact that the CIA tortured terrorism suspects almost two decades ago in the early years of the war on terror. The case before the justices, involving the alleged torture of al Qaeda operative and Guantanamo prisoner Abu Zubaydah while he was held in Poland in 2002 and 2003, presents fundamental questions about whether and when judges can override executive branch decisions on matters related to national security and so-called state secrets. — Biden nears pick to lead Food and Drug Administration: The Biden administration is closing in on a nominee to lead the Food and Drug Administration, four people familiar with the process told POLITICO. The White House was approaching a final pick anyway, but National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins’ Tuesday announcement that he would step down accelerated the timeline, according to one person with knowledge of the matter. — DOJ inspector general investigating Trump-era car emissions case: The Justice Department’s inspector general is investigating the Trump administration’s decision to open an antitrust probe of four automakers that had sided with California in a feud over the state’s strict vehicle emissions standards, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said today. “I believe the inspector general is investigating this matter,” Whitehouse said at a hearing on the nomination of Jonathan Kanter, Biden’s pick to helm the DOJ’s antitrust division. The IG’s office has not announced that it was looking into the Trump-era probe, which Whitehouse and Gov. Gavin Newsom lambasted at the time as politically motivated. AROUND THE NATION Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin speaks during a mask burning event at the statehouse in Boise in March. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images NO SMALL POTATOES — Morning Agriculture author and Idaho native Ximena Bustillo emails Nightly: While Gov. Brad Little left the state on a trip to visit the Southern border, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin used her temporary powers as interim governor to issue executive orders banning K-12 schools and public universities from requiring Covid-19 vaccinations or requiring mandatory testing. She also inquired about activating the Idaho National Guard and sending them to the U.S.-Mexico border. McGeachin’s quick use of power is not new. Earlier this summer she made headlines for using those same privileges to ban mask mandates while Little was out of state at a conference. Prior to that, in 2019, she issued an oath to a group of “Real Idaho 3 Percenters” usually given to the state’s National Guard. The election that matters: The continued use of temporary gubernatorial powers comes ahead of a Republican primary showdown between Little, who is rounding out his first term as governor, and his lieutenant. In conservative Idaho, the winner of the primary will be a heavy favorite in the general. Fight for the right: This leaves candidates with one choice: Prove that they are the most conservative fit for the job. And McGeachin’s strategy sets her up as a Twitter-active candidate who speaks to Fox News against critical race theory and sets up a task force to combat it in Idaho schools, opposes government and agency intervention in the Covid response and meets with Donald Trump himself. The pandemic, and temporary stay-at-home orders and regulations imposed by local government, have also left some Idaho Republicans wishing for someone more like Florida’s Ron DeSantis. Keep in mind: McGeachin’s recent Covid order is not all that different from one issued by Little , which banned state agencies from requiring or issuing proof of Covid-19 vaccinations. And Little has never issued mask mandates. He, instead, planned to sue the Biden administration over vaccine requirements. T-minus 13 months till the election: Little has already said he will rescind any actions McGeachin takes during this trip, and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) has called McGeachin’s move a “distraction.” Little has not announced a reelection bid but he is fundraising and is expected to announce. NIGHTLY NUMBER 38 percent Biden’s job approval rating in the latest Quinnipiac poll, his lowest in the survey since taking office. Three weeks ago, Biden was polling at 42 percent.   BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.     PARTING WORDS Gov. Gavin Newsom walks with Wade Crowfoot, California's natural resources secretary, along Bolsa Chica State Beach, the site of the recent offshore oil spill, on Tuesday. | Mark Rightmire/The Orange County Register via AP AFTER THE SPILL — California Democrats are seizing on a massive oil spill that has sullied popular beaches in Orange County and killed sea life to pursue long-sought bans on offshore drilling, Debra Kahn and Colby Bermel write. They’re seeking action in both Washington and Sacramento, where lawmakers are pushing to unilaterally prohibit drilling-related activities in waters off the California coast. The 144,000-gallon slick has newly galvanized California lawmakers and environmental groups, who have struggled to convince leaders even in this blue state to restrict oil production in recent years. Newsom on Tuesday excoriated fossil fuels’ contribution to climate change and got in a dig at Trump before throwing his support behind a congressional effort to ban new offshore drilling on the West Coast. “Those damn platforms, fossil fuels. It’s not very complicated. We need to grow up, grow out of this dependency and this mindset, this mindset that we can’t do more and do better,” he said at a press conference in Huntington Beach. “I want the Trump administration folks, all those folks out there, all those Republicans out there who still think the answer to the problem is more offshore drilling to just know: Not in our backyard. It won’t happen.” A message from UnitedHealth Group: UnitedHealth Group is committed to advancing health equity by addressing social barriers among the uninsured in underserved communities. Using predictive analytics, we are expanding access to care by helping to proactively identify people most likely to need support and connect them to local community resources. Since 2018, our community partnerships have helped more than 6 million people access care, nutritious food and stable, affordable housing. See how we’re fulfilling our mission to help people live healthier lives and help make the health system work better for everyone.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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