Solving a mystery: How researchers found missing North Atlantic right whales

Doug Fraser Cape Cod Times 

Published Dec 27, 2021 

Until recently, researchers tracking the well-being of the world's most endangered great whale could count on North Atlantic right whales showing up in several key areas at certain times of the year seeking food, love, or a safe place to give birth.

In winter and early spring, a large portion of right whales could be found in Cape Cod Bay feeding on copepods, their favorite food. They then moved to the Bay of Fundy for summer feeding, where New England Aquarium researchers had been studying them since the 1980s.

But in 2010, and in the years to follow, they went missing. Although they still showed up in Cape Cod Bay, for the past decade the Bay of Fundy has been largely a right whale ghost town. The same was true for the Great South Channel east of Cape Cod and the northern edge of Georges Bank.

It took a combination of detective work and luck to eventually find them — and where they ended up dramatically altered the landscape for whale survival and fisheries management.

'It's urgent':Research shows right whales may not survive ocean warming and human impact

"Where did they go when they left New England waters in winter?" said Tim Cole, a fisheries biologist at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Northeast Fisheries Science Center, echoing a question asked by researchers all over New England in the years following 2010. 

It should be relatively easy to find a 55-foot-long, 70 ton black-and-white whale, particularly when there are only more than 300 of them. But when they can swim virtually anywhere in the approximately 20 million square miles of the North Atlantic, the task of locating the North Atlantic right whale is incredibly difficult. 

"It's a big ocean and they are very mobile. It's a real trick to track the population," said Cole said. 

Warming water displaces a key food source

As to why they left their former summer stomping grounds, it may have a lot to do with climate change.

Andrew Pershing, the former chief scientist at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, along with other scientists, believe that in 2010 the Gulf of Maine, which stretches from Georges Bank to the Canadian border, underwent what is known as a regime shift — a sudden change in environmental conditions that isn't easily reversed.

Encouraging sign:First right whale calf of the season spotted off South Carolina

The reason why the Gulf of Maine has been warming faster than nearly every other ocean water body on earth may be due to a weakened global current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Also known as the Great Ocean Conveyor, the AMOC is a collection of currents, including the Gulf Stream, that moves north along the surface, propelled by water heated by the equatorial sun. As it cools in northern latitudes, this water gets denser and sinks, returning south to the equator as a cold water collection of currents crawling slowly along the bottom.

Normally a cold current from Labrador and Newfoundland chills the Gulf of Maine. It creates a subarctic ecosystem that supports cold-water species like cod, haddock, northern shrimp and lobster. And, most importantly for the right whale, that subarctic environment is home to its favorite food, the lipid-rich copepod Calanus finmarchicus

But melting Greenland glaciers created a layer of fresh water on the ocean surface that is inhibiting the descent of saltwater, and scientists believe that has slowed the conveyor.

Pershing and other researchers believe the weakened cold-water currents moving north to south allowed warm water from the south to enter the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel. They believe temperatures got too warm for Calanus finmarchicus and right whales left to find copepod blooms in some unfamiliar places.

"In 2012, 2013, everyone was asking, 'Where are the right whales going?'" said Peter Corkeron, a senior scientist and chairman of the Kraus Marine Mammal Conservation Program at the New England Aquarium's Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life. 

They had two rather obvious but important clues to consider in their search for the highly social, highly mobile animals.

"They want to be around females," said Cole. "It's all about food and sex."

American researchers, consulting with Canadian scientists, believed some may have relocated to cooler Canadian waters when finmarchicus blooms did occur. In 2015, Yvan Simard, a krill specialist for the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans, working on the ecology of this whale's forage species, started picking up a lot of right whale sounds at underwater listening posts he had set up to monitor shipping lanes in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. 

Cole, who works with other scientists conducting aerial surveys to find and document right whales, was able to negotiate with the Canadian government to bring the NOAA plane up to the Gulf of St. Lawrence to search for them in 2015. But 2017 was the first year they had the funding and time to do a comprehensive search — and they located a lot of right whales, Cole said. 

Danger in Gulf of St. Lawrence shipping lanes

A paper published this fall in the online journal Endangered Species Research on the aerial surveys of Canada, by lead author Leah Crowe of Integrated Statistics in Woods Hole —along with Cole, Corkeron and other NOAA, Anderson Cabot, and Canadian researchers — found that 40% of the right whale population was in the Gulf of St. Lawrence from May to December and that most of them — 140 — returned year after year.

Unfortunately, the Canadians did not have whale protections similar to those in the U.S., like weak links on lobster and crab pot buoy lines that would release under pressure, or shipping lanes that were relocated to route heavy ship traffic past feeding grounds or migration routes. 

The result was a record year of human-caused mortalities, with 17 confirmed dead right whales (12 in Canada and five in the United States). Since 2017, there have been 34 confirmed dead whales (21 in Canada and 13 in the United States), and 16 more with injuries from ship strikes or entanglement that are deemed likely to be fatal. Scientists have estimated that for right whales to rebuild and avoid extinction, less than one animal per year can perish from human causes.

In 2017, the aerial survey was repeatedly interrupted as they spotted dead, injured or entangled right whales and had to pause in their efforts to help rescue or necropsy teams find the animals. 

"We arrived and the first thing we were asked by the DFO was could we go out and locate a carcass, and it went on and on. It was horrible," Cole said.

The Canadians were able to act quickly and decisively on the information provided to them by Cole's team and by their own survey work. In fact, Corkeron, who once worked for NOAA on whale research, said they did a better job.

When safety measures take too long to implement

"NOAA is nowhere near keeping up with what the Canadians are doing," he said. The Canadian DFO has more power to act quickly, closing areas quickly to fishing and transport once a single right whale is seen. 

"It's labor intensive and it takes a lot of field work but that seems to be working to keep fisheries running and not kill a lot of whales," Corkeron said. By comparison, he cited NOAA's cumbersome process in which emergency fishery closures can take weeks or nearly a month to enact — and may be too late. Speed limits on shipping in areas where right whales have been seen are voluntary and routinely violated. 

"They (Canadians) have far more stringent measures and they can be implemented quickly," said Corkeron. Massachusetts lobstermen might argue otherwise, as almost all state waters remain closed to gear using buoy lines during the winter and early spring when right whales are here.

Still, it's taken years amid the constant threat of litigation for NOAA to develop a plan to reduce the number of buoy lines in New England, make the gear more whale-safe, and mark it so that researchers can tell where whales are getting entangled. 

Freeing right whales:Ropeless gear petition aims to protect marine life

Corkeron called Cole an unsung hero for his dogged work to find the whales in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. He said the study that resulted in their paper showed that one plane could find whales. 

But many questions remain unanswered. Are right whales getting what they need to survive in the Gulf of St. Lawrence? While Calanus finmarchicus copepods do bloom there, so do two other copepod species that may be less nutritious.

"We're not sure if the resource in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is really good and drew the whales there, or if it is just better than other places," Cole said. 

But while they know where 40% of right whales are come summer, where are the other 60% and are they going to areas where they may encounter buoy lines and ships?

"More than half are not there for 12 months, and there's this 40% somewhere else for seven months of the year," Corkeron said.

"The rest are dispersed over a pretty broad area," said Cole — hard to find, hard to protect.

Still, Cole takes comfort in the fact that, with less than 100 breeding age females remaining, roughly half the successful, breeding moms use the Gulf and seem to be getting the nourishment they need to produce calves. 

"It makes this a pretty important place," Cole said.

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: The next city budget

 

BY LISA KASHINSKY Presented by the Massachusetts Coalition for Independent Work CHECK AND BALANCE — Bostonians won’t just choose their next mayor next month, they’ll also decide how much power she’ll have over the city’s behemoth of a budget. Ballot Question 1 proposes a charter change that would overhaul the budget process. Currently, the mayor presents a multi-billion-dollar budget and councilors can only vote to accept or reject it. The ballot initiative , spearheaded by City Councilor Lydia Edwards and supported by mayoral rivals City Councilors Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George, would let councilors draw up their own budget in response to the mayor's — so long as it doesn’t exceed the dollar amount the mayor put forward — and override a mayoral veto. It would also establish an Office of Participatory Budgeting to give residents a greater say in the process. Supporters say participatory budgeting would empower councilors to better fight for their constituents’ needs. Yes on 1 advocate Andres Del Castillo of Right to the City Boston said it would lead to “more transparency and accountability” in the city’s budgeting and “allow residents across the city to engage in that debate.” Edwards told Boston.com’s Nik DeCosta-Klipa she hopes it’ll lead to a more constructive back-and-forth between the mayor and councilors. Opponents say participatory budgeting would put too many cooks in the kitchen and flood the budget process with special interests. “We would have essentially 13 city councilors, all with their own agendas, all competing with each other,” said Pam Kocher, president of the Boston Municipal Research Bureau, a watchdog group advocating for the city to keep a “strong-mayor" government. Boston already has a $1 million youth participatory budgeting process. Several major cities use forms of participatory budgeting, including Cambridge and New York City. Brad Lander, the Democratic nominee for NYC comptroller who ushered participatory budgeting onto the city council there a decade ago, said to look at how much money mayors are willing to pony up for participatory budgeting (most of a city’s budget goes to perennial costs like salaries). Acting Mayor Kim Janey committed $1 million to set up the participatory budgeting office. Wu said she’ll “see that investment through” and glean best practices from other cities. Essaibi George pledged $1 million. GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. The race is (still) on in the special election to finish out former state Rep. Brad Hill’s term, even though his 4th Essex District won’t exist come next fall. With less than two weeks until the primary, Republicans Lisa-Marie Cashman and Robert Snow, and Democrats Jamie Belsito and Darcyll Dale, say they’re staying in the race — despite a redistricting map that would divvy up the district and place them in either state Rep. Lenny Mirra (R-Georgetown) or state Rep. Christina Minicucci’s (D-North Andover) districts in 2022. Why run for a seat for only a year? Cashman said the district’s been without representation for two months while lawmakers are deciding how to dish out roughly $4.8 billion in federal aid. Belsito said she’s fighting to make sure current constituents still “have a voice” over the next year. Tweaks to the House map approved yesterday also put Simon Cataldo’s Concord precinct back in the 14th Middlesex district he’s running to represent after state Rep. Tami Gouveia decided to run for lieutenant governor. Vivian Birchall, another Democrat, is also running. TODAY — Gov. Charlie Baker joins Everett Mayor Carlo DeMaria, Somerville Mayor Joe Curtatone and other officials for a Mystic River Pedestrian Bridge announcement at Encore Boston Harbor at 3 p.m. Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito visits Cape Ann Museum at 9 a.m. and Belmont Street Community School in Worcester at 1:30 p.m. Wu and Suffolk DA Rachael Rollins appear on the Boston Globe’s “Black News Hour” at 8 a.m. on Boston Praise Radio. Janey visits Epiphany School’s Early Learning Center at 11:30 a.m. State Sen. Eric Lesser hosts a lunchtime livestream on East-West Rail ridership estimates at noon. THIS WEEKEND — Wu and Sen. Elizabeth Warren kick off the first day of early voting at 10:15 a.m. Saturday outside BPL in Copley; Wu and Essaibi George participate in forums with state Rep. Russell Holmes at Morning Star Baptist Church. The Dorchester Reporter’s Bill Forry and Gintautas Dumcius talk the mayor's race on WBZ’s “Keller at Large” at 8:30 a.m. Sunday. Wu is this week’s guest on WCVB’s “On the Record” at 11 a.m. Wu and Rep. Ayanna Pressley lead "Souls to the Polls" at 2:30 p.m. Sunday starting at the Charles Street AME Church. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: lkashinsky@politico.com. Go Sox!   A message from the Massachusetts Coalition for Independent Work: It's clear: Massachusetts app-based drivers want to maintain their flexibility while gaining access to new benefits and protections. 83% support legislation like H.1234 that would do just that — offering them flexibility, independence, protections against discrimination, a portable benefits fund and more. Learn more.     STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down and who really has the president's ear in West Wing Playbook, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     THE LATEST NUMBERS – “Massachusetts reports 1,267 new coronavirus cases, nearly 300,000 booster doses,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald. – “There were 1,804 Massachusetts students, 350 school staffers with COVID in past week, pooled testing positivity rate below 1%,” by Benjamin Kail, MassLive. – "Town-by-town COVID-19 data in Massachusetts," by Ryan Huddle and Peter Bailey-Wells, Boston Globe. DATELINE BEACON HILL – “Massachusetts lawmakers push for genocide education in middle and high schools,” by Alison Kuznitz, MassLive: “The state Senate on Thursday passed a bill that requires all middle schools and high schools in Massachusetts to incorporate curriculum on the history of genocide, as lawmakers feared students increasingly lacked Holocaust education amid a rise in anti-Semitism.” – “Increasingly popular e-bikes are everywhere — and live in a legal gray zone in Massachusetts,” by Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe: “In Massachusetts, e-bikes are categorized as mopeds and prohibited on bike paths, though bike advocates say the law is largely unenforced. Now, some lawmakers are pushing a bill that would bring the state in line with 46 others and Washington, D.C., in regulating the very expensive but increasingly popular e-bikes as bikes.” VAX-ACHUSETTS – “Correction officers union appeals judge’s denial in vaccine mandate fight,” by Erin Tiernan, Boston Herald: “The union representing correctional officers has vowed to ‘go down swinging’ in its attempts to block Gov. Charlie Baker’s vaccine mandate and has appealed a federal judge’s ‘disappointing’ denial of an injunction. The organization said it’s preparing yet another lawsuit to fight the order.” – “Mass. Preparing To Start Elementary School Vaccines Next Month,” by Mike Deehan, GBH News: “Secretary of Health and Human Services Marylou Sudders told a legislative oversight panel Thursday the Baker administration expects approval of the vaccine for younger children sometime in the first week of November and will deliver the shots to pediatricians, school-based clinics, local boards of health and other providers. ” – “State: School testing delays are being resolved,” by Shira Schoenberg, CommonWealth Magazine: “Massachusetts health and education officials acknowledged on Thursday that ‘logistical challenges’ led to a delayed rollout of the state’s COVID-19 testing program in schools, but they said the problems, which were primarily attributable to low staffing, are being addressed.” – “New study reveals why Provincetown did not become a COVID superspreader,” by Kay Lazar, Boston Globe: “The team of researchers, led by scientists at the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, concluded that Cape Cod’s high vaccination rate and quick public health measures in Massachusetts likely prevented the outbreak from erupting into many more infections.” FROM THE HUB – “Boston Methadone Mile latest: Questions arise over new encampments, Tompkins prepares mobile courtroom,” by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: “Mass and Cass plans continue to move forward, with Acting Mayor Kim Janey’s recent moves being generally well-received — albeit with some questions over whether the homeless will just move onto other neighborhoods — and preparations continuing at the Suffolk County jail for a mobile courtroom and treatment space.” – “Doctors and researchers are concerned about the city’s efforts to remove tents at Mass. and Cass. Here’s why,” by Dialynn Dwyer, Boston.com: “Dr. Mark Eisenberg, a primary care physician at MGH-Charlestown Health Care Center with specialties in infectious diseases and addiction medicine, told Boston.com that while he applauds the move to declare the situation at Mass. and Cass a public health emergency, he doesn’t support the executive order. Doing a ‘sweep’ of the encampments will just criminalize and displace the people living there, he said.” – “Council backs law to give Boston surveillance tech oversight, limit info sharing between BPS and BPD,” by Christopher Gavin, Boston.com: “The law, years in the making, requires that any surveillance technology sought by Boston police be approved by the council beforehand. Authorities must also get the council’s sign-off to use any technology they already own for a new purpose.” THE RACE FOR CITY HALL – “Third poll shows Wu with dominating lead, but a majority of voters support Essaibi George on policing,” by Milton J. Valencia, Boston Globe: “The poll, by the progressive think tank Data for Progress, showed Wu with 57 percent support among likely Boston voters, compared to 32 percent for Essaibi George — a lead of 25 percentage points for Wu, which is slightly less than the lead other recent polls have given her, but still comparable. ... Essaibi George has proposed spending more on policing, and respondents shared similar views: 64 percent said that local government should be spending more 'creating a fair and effective public safety system.'” – “Like Other Arab Americans In Politics, Boston's Essaibi George Faces Questions About Her Identity,” by Saraya Wintersmith, GBH News: “Boston mayoral candidate Annissa Essaibi George, who counts herself as a person of color, has faced questions about her identity since she jumped into the historic field — then filled with candidates who were visibly not white. The Arab-Polish Boston native said she has identified as a person of color for the six years she has held public office, but she acknowledged she has not always. With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 2 election, how Essaibi George identifies remains a quietly persistent issue on the campaign trail. Wu supporters interviewed by GBH News tended to be more skeptical than Essaibi George voters in accounting for the depth of her cultural and ethnic identification.” – “Essaibi George continues outreach to communities of color,” by Stephanie Ebbert, Emma Platoff and Milton J. Valencia, Boston Globe: “For weeks, City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George has been intently focusing her mayoral campaign on communities of color, meeting with Haitian seniors and Black hospitality workers, walking through Uphams Corner with Cape Verdean leaders, and campaigning with Roxbury mothers, even as polls show her badly trailing her rival and fellow city councilor, Michelle Wu. … On Thursday, Essaibi George was at Franklin Field public housing in Dorchester, promoting the diversity agenda she unveiled late last month and promising to devote $100 million in federal relief funds to the Black community.” – FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Boston City Council at-large candidate Carla Monteiro has been endorsed by Boston state Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz, who’s running for governor. – FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: David Halbert has been endorsed by Boston state Rep. Jon Santiago and Acton state Rep. Tami Gouveia. – WATCH: WBUR’s town halls with Wu and Essaibi George .   A message from the Massachusetts Coalition for Independent Work:     PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES – “T delays Green Line extension a second time,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: “The MBTA is once again delaying the initial opening of the Green Line extension into Somerville, this time because cramped quarters in a newly built facility for delivering electricity to the subway line is making it difficult to get enough workers inside to finish the job on time.” – More from Mohl: “New T board likely to move at slower pace,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine. DAY IN COURT – “Feds say Boston Grand Prix CFO spent COVID-19 funds on diamond ring, Match.com membership,” by WCVB: “John F. Casey, 57, formerly of Ipswich, pleaded guilty to 23 counts of wire fraud, three counts of aggravated identity theft, four counts of money laundering and three counts of filing false tax returns, federal prosecutors said.” FROM THE DELEGATION – Rep. Jake Auchincloss is joining Rep. Bill Keating in blasting Sen. Ted Cruz’s “Stop the SURGE Act” that calls to send immigrants from the Texas border to Cambridge, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. “What you intend as a threat, we in Massachusetts consider a promise — the promise of more immigration, which makes the Commonwealth richer both economically and culturally,” Auchincloss wrote in the letter, which a TikTok (his first) shows him signing and delivering to Cruz’s office. – Yet another advocacy coalition is targeting Rep. Richard Neal. This time it's a $100,000 ad buy telling the House Ways and Means chair and his colleagues to "make polluters pay" in the reconciliation bill. The billboard, radio and social ads start today and will run in 12 states, including Massachusetts. Reps. Jim McGovern and Ayanna Pressley support the "Make Polluters Pay" legislation. IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN – “Competition fierce for offshore wind's a 'once in a generation opportunity',” by Doug Fraser, Cape Cod Times: “But, even with the nation’s first wind farm, Vineyard Wind 1, now in its construction phase, Massachusetts risks losing that advantage as Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and other states invest in the infrastructure to encourage the manufacturing and supply chain industries that will provide the bulk of the jobs and billions in investments.” THE LOCAL ELECTIONS ROUNDUP – “She made history as the first Black woman mayor popularly elected in Mass. Now, she’s the underdog in her reelection bid,” by Stephanie Ebbert, Boston Globe: “Yvonne Spicer originated the role of mayor here nearly four years ago, when voters chose the STEM educator and Museum of Science executive to lead the freshly minted city government they had just voted to create. … Now, the incumbent finds herself an underdog in her reelection bid against a challenger who could hardly be viewed as the next face of change. Charlie Sisitsky, a 76-year-old former city councilor who ran the Department of Public Works in neighboring Natick for two decades, is the consensus candidate of voters who have soured on Spicer’s leadership.” – GBH’s Adam Reilly has more on Spicer’s uncertain future as Framingham’s mayor. THE LOCAL ANGLE – Say it ain’t snow: “Here’s how snowy this winter will be, according to NOAA,” by Julia Taliesin, Boston.com: “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter weather predictions on Thursday morning, and it actually looks like it will be a mild winter.” – “Serial child rapist Wayne Chapman dead: ‘Hopefully there’s more justice on the other side’,” by Joe Dwinell, Boston Herald: “Wayne Chapman is dead, ending a nightmare sex offender story. He goes to his grave having admitted to molesting up to 100 boys across multiple states. He was also the lone person of interest in the disappearance of 10-year-old Andy Puglisi of Lawrence in 1976.” – “Massachusetts town Select Board asks FBI to investigate its own police department for payroll discrepancies,” by Will Katcher, MassLive: “The Boxborough Select Board is seeking the help of the FBI’s Public Corruption Unit in investigating payment discrepancies within the town’s police department.” – “Faculty members at Middlesex School sign letter to trustees, slamming decision to disinvite Nikole Hannah-Jones from speaking on campus,” by Travis Andersen, Boston Globe: “Nearly 100 faculty members and staffers at Middlesex School have signed an open letter to the trustees blasting the Concord boarding school’s decision to disinvite Nikole Hannah-Jones, the Pulitzer-Prize winning New York Times journalist who conceived The 1619 Project, from speaking on campus.” – “New Bedford PD unveils new policy for labeling gang members,” by Anastasia Lennon, New Bedford Light: “Some six months after a Boston-based youth advocacy group released a critical report alleging the city’s police department over-polices Black people and youth in the city, the department announced a new policy for policing gangs and identifying members or affiliates. … The policy brings some significant changes, including a requirement to notify people if they are labeled as gang members.” – “Mass. jobless claims continue to decline,” by Christian M. Wade, CNHI/Eagle-Tribune: “There were 4,553 new applications for state benefits filed for the week ending Oct. 16 — a decline of 344 claims from the previous week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor’s weekly report.” – “Attleboro mayor meets Patriot linebacker 'by accident',” by George W. Rhodes, Sun Chronicle: “Rookie linebacker Ronnie Perkins of the New England Patriots had some business at the Registry of Motor Vehicles on Monday, but he also found himself visiting with the mayor.” – “MIT’s endowment rose by 49% to $27.4 billion in 2021, strongest annual financial performance in over 20 years,” by Cassie McGrath, MassLive. TRANSITIONS – David Winslow, a former Massachusetts judge and chief legal counsel to former Gov. Mitt Romney, is the next president of the New England Legal Foundation. Ron Bell is now senior strategist of field operations for David Halbert’s Boston City Council at-large campaign. HAPPY BIRTHDAY – to state Rep. John Rogers, Jonathan Carvalho, Jenna Lamond, Atlantic Council’s Trey Herr, Lindsay Kalter and Connor Meoli. HAPPY BIRTHWEEKEND – to Saturday birthday-ers Molly Drennan, Annika Lichtenbaum and Arielle Tait; and to Sunday birthday-ers Rep. Seth Moulton, Ernie Corrigan of Corrigan Communications, Leigh Appleby and Michael Antonellis. THIS WEEK ON THE HORSE RACE — Hosts Steve Koczela, Jennifer Smith and Lisa Kashinsky get you up to speed on the latest happenings in the Boston mayor’s race and what a new poll means for Gov. Charlie Baker. Deanna Moran, director of environmental planning at the Conservation Law Foundation, joins to talk about climate resiliency in Boston and beyond. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and Sound Cloud. Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? 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'It's urgent': Research shows right whales may not survive ocean warming and human impact

Doug Fraser Cape Cod Times 

Published Sep 13, 2021 

A trio of recently published research papers paint a grim picture for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale.

Caught between climate change impacts that have warmed the Gulf of Maine faster than just about any other marine ecosystem on Earth, and fatal interactions with ships and fishing gear, the right whale — the most endangered great whale in the world with less than 360 individuals remaining — may be headed for extinction. 

One research paper showed that a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was largely responsible for the increased warming in Gulf of Maine waters.

AMOC is a massive, planetary-scale system of currents that help equalize global temperatures by moving warm water from the tropics north on surface currents like the Gulf Stream. The water cools, condenses and drops to the ocean depths around Greenland, Iceland and the North Sea, returning south as a cold-water-bottom current.

But some researchers have found that a large mass of freshwater from melting glaciers and ice sheets may be interfering with the cold saltwater's descent to the bottom — in theory slowing what is sometimes known as The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt.  

Andrew Pershing, director of climate science at Climate Central, explained that the slowdown of the AMOC allowed the warm surface currents to expand their footprint in the northwest Atlantic. Pershing said he believes that warm water enters the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel that runs by the easternmost tip of Georges Bank and is the main entry point for Atlantic water into the gulf.

Study from June:Endangered right whales are shorter than they used to be.

Until recently, Pershing was the chief scientist at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute and was a co-author of one of the papers published in the online journal Elementa that reviewed observed and expected changes to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem out to 2050.

Co-authors included researchers from the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Colby College and the University of Maine all located in Maine; the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada; the Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries, and Oceans in Nova Scotia; Rutgers University in New Jersey; the Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium; and Owen Nichols from the Center for Coastal Studies in Provincetown.

North Atlantic right whales on the move

Normally, a cold current from Labrador and Newfoundland chills the Gulf of Maine, creating what is considered a subarctic ecosystem. Researchers found that the last five years were the warmest on record in the Gulf of Maine. For cold-water species like cod, haddock, northern shrimp and lobster that thrive in the subarctic ecosystems, the warming waters have been troublesome.

Scientists noticed species are on the move, generally north to find cooler water, or west into the deep basins in the Gulf of Maine.

Those loving a more temperate ecosystem are moving in, like black sea bass, longfin squid, green crabs and tunicates that carpet the ocean bottom. Scientists are concerned about new shellfish pathogens and toxic blooms of new algae species that like warmer water.

Conservation groups:NOAA didn't go far enough in protecting right whales in latest plan

For the right whale, the big impact has been the negative affect on the population of their preferred prey, the lipid-rich zooplankton (Calanus finnmarchicus) that prefer a subarctic ecosystem and feed on cold-water phytoplankton blooms. 

While right whales can go in search of the copepods blooming in cooler waters, lower calving rates and thin whales demonstrate that it has not been a successful hunt. Up until 2010, the right whale population had been slowly rebuilding amid what was a Calanus population bloom.

But Pershing and others believe that what is known as a regime shift — an abrupt persistent change to an ecosystem — occurred in 2010 that resulted in warmer temperatures in the Gulf of Maine. From that point on, the Calanus finnmarchicus zooplankton populations dropped and right whales were on the move.

Dropping numbers

Right whales largely disappeared from the Bay of Fundy, where they were known to summer, and were found in unexpected areas, like the Gulf of St. Lawrence in Canada and south of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

In Cape Cod Bay, record numbers started showing up earlier than usual. They may have been loading up on other species of copepods that weren't as rich in the oils that the right whales crave, but at least were food. Pershing thinks they also may be eating a different species up in Canada, and to the south of the Cape. 

This caused problems for those trying to protect right whales, as Canadian fishermen and their shipping industry didn't have the regulations and closed areas used to safeguard whales along the U.S. coastline. Significant mortality resulted as right whales showed up in unfamiliar areas and were hit and entangled in large numbers. 

North Atlantic right whale numbers have been dropping since 2010 and are now estimated to be around 357 individuals — down from 488 in 2011 — with fewer than 100 breeding females.

Scientists estimate that less than one right whale per year can die from human causes if the species is to avoid extinction.

But NOAA data showed that over the past four years, 50 have been confirmed dead or injured seriously enough by entanglements in fishing gear or collisions with ships that they are likely to die.

Daniel Pendleton, a research scientist specializing in spatial distribution and population ecology at the Anderson Cabot Center, was co-author of a research paper, also published in Elementa. That research looked out to 2050 and found a decline in habitat suitability in historical foraging areas like the Bay of Fundy and Cape Cod Bay.

Surveyed by Center for Coastal Studies:Flight crew observes 89 North Atlantic right whales near Sandy Neck

Pendleton worked with researchers from Maine's Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences; the Bedford Institute; and Charles "Stormy" Mayo of the Center for Coastal Studies.

Right whale habitat decline in the Gulf of Maine was true under most climate change emissions scenarios, researchers found, and that large areas of the Gulf of Maine would no longer be foraging areas in July and none by August. 

The right whale message

While areas to the north, like the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, might see notable Calanus blooms in some months, there were unknowns. Right whales, for instance, rely on currents and bottom contours to condense the blooms and make feeding suitably efficient.  

"The right whale message is that overall, the right whale habitat in the Gulf of Maine seems to be declining, but at the same time we're seeing whales appear in unexpected places," said Pendleton.

The problem, Pendleton and other researchers concluded, was that management to protect right whales is reactive, effecting change only after deaths have occurred.

Computer models that look at habitat change, he said, can help tell researchers and managers where to put their efforts in surveys and in proactive measures to prevent harm.  

Pershing said the models used in the research showed that trend potentially lasting for decades or longer, with consequences beyond 2050 growing exponentially depending on how much mankind can limit emissions now. 

Video:Watch as two North Atlantic right whales do a 'hug' in Cape Cod Bay

Pershing and Pendleton co-authored an essay published in the journal Oceanography that expressed the concern that even if the right whale did learn how to find the food they need, the pace of climate change would likely mean they would relatively quickly be put in the position of having to adapt again. 

Whales would need to be healthy to make it through tough times as they looked for new foraging grounds. But their health was continually being compromised by ship collisions and entanglements.

Stopping human impacts

"Under these conditions, the right whale population can only grow if there are no deaths from ship strikes or from entanglements in fishing ropes," they wrote in the essay. But the reality is that federal regulators have not reduced the deaths of right whales from ships and fishing gear to levels where the species has a chance to recover.

"Climate change is one of two things affecting right whales," Pendleton said. "We can stop the human impacts — that is within our field of control on the timescales that matter right now."

"Just as it is super-urgent to figure out how to get our economy off fossil fuels, it's urgent to find out how to live in an ocean with right whales. It's very disconcerting that we haven't figured that out yet," Pershing said.

On Friday, the Conservation Law Foundation, Center for Biological Diversity and Defenders of Wildlife announced they had filed updated litigation against NOAA for failing to protect right whales from entanglements in the vertical lines used primarily to mark lobster pots, but also crab and other fishing gear.

In their updated lawsuit in U.S. District Court, the District of Columbia, the plaintiffs, contended that NOAA's new right whale protection rule unveiled at the end of last month would still result in around 32 right whales a year becoming entangled in fishing gear.

They contend that NOAA's new rule was in violation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act and that the federal agency's assessment of how the lobster fishery impacted right whales didn't comply with the Endangered Species Act.

No next steps on the lawsuit have yet been scheduled in court, according to a foundation spokesperson.