POLITICO NIGHTLY: 2021’s hot holiday gift: Flight delays

 

BY ORIANA PAWLYK Presented by Charter Communications A Southwest Airlines jet moves on the runway as a person eats at a terminal restaurant at LaGuardia Airport in New York. | AP Photo/Julio Cortez A NATION ON STANDBY — If you’re reading this while sitting on the floor near the closest electrical outlet as you monitor the latest in a string of flight delays and cancelations, know that you are very much not alone. Southwest Airlines tallied more than 2,000 flights canceled Friday through Monday afternoon, citing bad weather and air traffic controller problems. The FAA acknowledged that the weather and an ATC staffing shortage in Jacksonville, Fla., as well as military training in the area, were factors, but shot back that the problems were limited in scope. And it’s worth noting that there weren’t mass delays at multiple airlines. Just Southwest. But even if you’ve never queued at DCA with a B29 on your boarding pass while praying to get the last aisle seat, get ready for more of this. Domestic airlines, eager to rebound and regain profits lost during Covid shutdowns, are not equipped to handle even a basic blip in service. Butterfly-effect cascades like the one in Jacksonville this weekend are increasingly likely to shut down air travel, especially as holiday travel ramps up. Or put it this way: A chance of flurries quickly snowballs into a broader fiasco, said Scott Hamilton, an aviation industry analyst for consulting firm Leeham Company LLC. “I think there’s just this drive to try to return to profitability as soon as possible and do that by putting flights back into schedule,” Hamilton said. Southwest may be dealing with other issues behind the scenes, Hamilton said, such as inadequate staffing. But it’s not the only airline that’s likely to be trying to get a lot of passengers onto planes a little faster than its workforce — not just pilots and flight attendants, but also mechanics and agents and call-center workers who handle reservations — allows for. American Airlines and Spirit, among others, have seen travel meltdowns this year. Over the course of the pandemic, consumers have filed more than 100,000 airline complaints to the Department of Transportation, with 87 percent of those complaints pertaining to refund mishandlings after a canceled flight, according to DOT. A number of conservatives blamed the “Biden vaccine mandate” for Southwest’s unpleasant holiday. Southwest said today it would comply with the administration’s vaccine decree even after Texas Gov Greg Abbott issued an edict Monday that would ban vax mandates for private business in his state. On social media, rumors swirled of mass walkouts from Southwest pilots and air traffic controllers. But the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, its pilot union, said nothing of the sort was true. The delays were not attributed to mass sickouts “either related to the recent mandatory vaccine mandate or otherwise,” the association said. Ben Wakana of the White House Covid-19 Response Team backed up that claim, as did the FAA in a rare statement on Twitter. Southwest’s CEO said today on CNBC that while the company has “some very strong views on that topic,” referring to the mandate, it was not the issue causing cancellations over the weekend. But crew availability is still a substantial factor likely contributing to Southwest’s latest setback — whether that’s tied to vaccine mandates or not, said Robert Mann, an airline industry analyst. “I think what you see is a reduction in what I would term volunteerism,” Mann said. Southwest has one of the lowest percentages of reserve pilots — those who work in an on-call, often standby status — compared to the rest of the industry, he said. Vaccine mandates might fit into the story in a smaller way, Mann said. It’s possible that pilots who object to the contractual vaccine mandates are “not volunteering at the same rate as they historically would have, and that creates a problem because you can’t staff the operation if you don't have the level of volunteers.” So keep your tray tables in the locked and upright position. Americans are planning for a pre-pandemic holiday travel season. But we’re in the middle of a post-pandemic crisis for the travel system that’s still unfolding. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at opawlyk@politico.com or on Twitter at @Oriana0214. A message from Charter Communications: We’re proud to announce that Spectrum Internet ranks No. 1 in the U.S. News & World Report 2021-22 “Best Rural Internet Service Providers” rankings. This recognition underscores our ongoing commitment to connecting more communities from coast to coast, including rural areas. And we’re just getting started.   WHAT'D I MISS? — House Budget Chair announces retirement: House Budget Chair John Yarmuth announced today he will not seek reelection after 15 years in Congress , opening a key seat in the Democratic stronghold of Louisville. Yarmuth, the sole Democrat in Kentucky’s delegation, said he will step aside to spend more time with family. He would be 75 years old when his term ends in January 2023. He’s the fifth House Democrat to announce his retirement as the party faces an uphill battle to keep its majority in the 2022 election. — Biden to tap veteran diplomat as new point person for Afghan relocation efforts: Elizabeth Jones is set to be tapped as the coordinator for Afghan relocation efforts, according to a U.S. official and two congressional sources familiar with the move. The State Department plans to announce as soon as this week that Jones, a veteran diplomat who served as the ambassador to Kazakhstan and as deputy special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, will replace John Bass, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, the people said. — Powell demotes top bank regulator as Fed leadership shakeup looms: The Federal Reserve announced today that Randal Quarles will no longer be in charge of regulating the country's financial system after his vice chairmanship expires Wednesday, a move that could mark the beginning of major leadership changes at the Fed. The announcement comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is awaiting word on whether he will be renominated by President Joe Biden to a second term. Some progressive groups have criticized Powell and Quarles — both appointed by President Donald Trump — for rolling back some of the rules imposed on banks in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.   THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider” newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don’t miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today.     — Birx aids Covid investigation: Deborah Birx, the former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, took questions from the congressional select committee investigating the pandemic this morning , according to two sources familiar with the interview. The session is part of the probe into how the Trump administration handled the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic. Birx has detailed firsthand knowledge of how Trump and his aides responded to a crisis that has now killed more than 715,000 Americans. — Climate summit chief sets up fight over Paris Agreement’s goal: Returning to the place where the Paris Agreement was born, the U.K. minister who currently has custody over the climate accord set up a battle over its core aim that will play out during next month’s COP26 climate talks . In his last major speech ahead of the Glasgow meeting, Alok Sharma made it clear today he’ll be pushing hard for all countries in Scotland to cut their emissions during this decade by enough to give the world a chance to stop warming at 1.5 degrees. However, some big emitters, and even the French politician who helped negotiate the 2015 Paris climate deal, say the original deal primarily aims for a 2-degree target. — Divided Supreme Court considers who can defend abortion restrictions: A divided Supreme Court today weighed which state officials can defend abortion bans in court — a procedural question with implications that extend beyond reproductive health in states where the governor and attorney general hail from opposing parties. The arguments marked the first abortion case to be argued in full before the court’s 6-3 conservative majority and centered on whether Republican Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron could defend his state’s ban on some forms of abortion after two courts found it unconstitutional and Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear refused to defend it further.       AROUND THE WORLD A man passes by a poster of the annual World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington. | Alex Wong/Getty Images CLOUDS CLEARING OVER FINANCE FETE — Kristalina Georgieva will remain International Monetary Fund boss after its board decided against giving her the axe, Bjarke Smith-Meyer writes. Speculation over the Bulgarian’s future has been rife for weeks following a probe last month into allegations she tampered with data during her time as chief executive of the World Bank to improve China’s global standing in the business and investment world. The scandal had threatened to overshadow celebrations at this week’s IMF-World Bank biannual pow-wow in Washington, where top finance ministers and central bankers will rubber-stamp a global tax accord that 136 nations struck last week. Georgieva’s potential embarrassment has been spared after the IMF executive board’s announcement that it had “full confidence” in her “leadership and ability to continue to effectively carry out her duties.” At the heart of the board’s deliberations was an inquiry, published last month, that accused Georgieva of pressuring World Bank staffers to boost China’s ranking in the annual Doing Business report for 2018.   “A FOREIGN POLICY BUILT FOR WOMEN” – JOIN US THURSDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION: Building a foreign policy agenda with women at the center has shown that it can advance broader social, economic and political goals. It also requires having women in influential decision-making positions. Join POLITICO Magazine senior editor Usha Sahay for a joint conversation with Ambassador Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, the State Department’s chief diversity and inclusion officer, and Ambassador Bonnie Denise Jenkins, undersecretary for arms control and international security, focused on the roadblocks preventing more women from rising through the ranks of diplomacy and why closing the foreign policy gender gap matters. REGISTER HERE.     NIGHTLY NUMBER 18 percent The increase in federal tax revenues in the fiscal year that just ended, analysts say — the biggest one-year increase since 1977. That translates into $627 billion more than in 2020, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which estimates that total government revenues topped $4 trillion for the first time. PARTING WORDS WHITE HOUSE MOVES — Jessica Hertz, the staff secretary in the White House, is leaving her position, according to two people familiar with the matter. Hertz, a former lawyer in Facebook’s Washington office, occupied one of the most powerful perches in the White House, controlling the flow of paper and documents that reached Biden’s desk, Daniel Lippman writes. She is one of the first senior White House staffers to leave the administration, which hasn’t hit its 10-month mark yet. It’s unclear who will replace her and lead the eight-person staff secretary’s office. Hertz, who also served as a deputy assistant to the president and will leave in the coming days, had no comment. A White House spokesperson declined to comment. Before joining the Biden transition team as general counsel in June 2020, Hertz was a director and associate general counsel for regulatory affairs at Facebook, where she spent more than two years. Hertz also worked as principal deputy counsel for Biden when he was vice president, before doing a stint at the law firm Jenner & Block. She started her career in politics in the Obama administration, as counselor to Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs administrator Cass Sunstein, before joining the Justice Department. A message from Charter Communications: Access for all means opportunity for everyone. That’s why we’re investing billions to extend our network to reach those who need it most. Over the next several years, Charter will build more than 100,000 miles of new U.S. broadband infrastructure that will deliver reliable, high-speed internet access to even more communities from coast to coast. That’s an extension long enough to circle the equator four times. This $5 billion initiative will connect an FCC-estimated one million currently unserved, mostly rural families and small businesses to reliable internet service with speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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