THE LAST-MILE PROBLEM IN AFGHANISTAN — Today was the first time the Pentagon put a number on the progress of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, after President Joe Biden’s May announcement of the decision to pull the troops. The U.S. military has officially completed 90 percent of its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. Central Command said today. The White House said the final drawdown will be completed by the end of August. The political ramifications of the end of America’s first post-9/11 war are hard to predict. The Taliban is taking hold again in Afghanistan, bolstered by the U.S. military’s exit. And Russian President Vladimir Putin could interfere with the Biden administration’s post-withdrawal agenda, Defense reporter Lara Seligman reported today. Nightly chatted with Lara over Slack about what today’s progress report means, and what to watch for in the coming weeks as the Biden administration completes the withdrawal. You had an interesting tweet, pointing out that the 90 percent figure raises the question about why the last 10 percent is going to take until the end of August. Why the long timeline? A few reasons: 1) They don’t want to announce that the withdrawal has already effectively been completed for fear that the Taliban will use that news as an excuse to launch an even stronger offensive. 2) They want to keep some contractors around as long as possible to help out the Afghans, for instance those currently helping with maintenance for the Afghan air force. Experts fear the security forces may collapse without the support of these contractors. 3) It also gives the administration more time to finalize plans to relocate thousands of Afghans who helped the U.S. military as interpreters, etc., and are awaiting their special immigrant visas. These Afghans are in danger of being killed by the Taliban after the U.S. officially leaves. 4) Keeping the commander around and at least the illusion of a U.S. military presence is, if nothing else, a morale boost for the Afghan security forces. 5) It also gives them more time to hammer out the details of how to provide security at Kabul international airport, which is now the main gateway for diplomats and humanitarian aid workers into Afghanistan. The Biden administration is trying to work out a deal with the Turks right now to keep up to 1,000 troops there to provide security. What do we know about what’s happening on the ground with the Taliban, as U.S. forces continue to leave the region? How are the Afghan security forces holding up? Not well. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which tracks the conflict closely, in the last six days alone the Taliban has taken control of 10 percent of the country, most of it in critical northern areas. That means that overall the Taliban now controls 188 of the country’s 407 districts and contests another 135. We are seeing the Afghan security forces surrender many of their bases without a fight. What are experts saying the scenarios are for how this will play out over the course of the summer, once the U.S. completes its withdrawal? I saw one of your sources warned Afghanistan is “at risk of complete collapse.” Yes, some intelligence reports indicate that the government in Kabul could fall to the Taliban in as little as six months to two years after the U.S. withdraws. One of my sources says Kabul is secure as long as the morale of the Afghan National Security Forces holds — but if that breaks the country could fall quickly. And the reports about the Afghans surrendering without a fight, and others that some soldiers have fled to Tajikistan, are not encouraging. As you’ve reported, the U.S. is still trying to keep an eye on Afghanistan — potentially from a Central Asian country. Why is Russia an obstacle to this? In a nutshell, Russia has significant economic and military influence in all the neighboring countries the U.S. is looking at to potentially host U.S. troops — namely the “stan” countries like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Twenty years ago, these countries were concerned about the terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan and were happy to help out — the U.S. used to have bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. But now the threat has diminished, and the relationship between Washington and Moscow is at an all-time low. Moscow will not look kindly on U.S. boots on the ground in the Central Asian states, which it considers its own area of operations. And these countries basically require at least tacit approval from Russia because they are heavily dependent on Moscow for economic support and military aid. So if Putin refuses to give this approval, what’s left for the Biden admin to do to help ensure Kabul doesn’t fall? The military insists we can still maintain overwatch in Afghanistan to keep the Taliban in check and hunt down any terrorist cells that crop up from far-away bases in the Middle East and ships in the Persian Gulf. But experts say this plan is not realistic — it’s a nine-hour flight from Qatar to Afghanistan, and not at all clear that this is feasible for the unmanned aircraft the Pentagon plans to rely on for surveillance. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. The White House has alerted tonight that first lady Jill Biden will be attending the Scripps National Spelling Bee on Thursday in Orlando. Unsure if her native Philly spelling of water (w-o-o-d-e-r) would pass muster with judges. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at mward@politico.com, or on Twitter at @MyahWard.
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