POLITICO NIGHTLY: Warning signs mount on Russia-Ukraine

 

BY RENUKA RAYASAM AND TYLER WEYANT With help from Myah Ward National security adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during the daily White House press briefing. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images ‘THREAT IS IMMEDIATE’ — That was national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s assessment of the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The appearance by Sullivan at today’s White House briefing, along with a flurry of evacuation moves and continued intelligence reports on Russian troops, painted a gloomy picture for the days ahead. Here’s is the latest from POLITICO reporters around the world: — Americans, Britons urged to leave: Sullivan urged Americans still in Ukraine to depart the country within the next 24 to 48 hours, saying President Joe Biden would not send troops into harm’s way to evacuate U.S. citizens who could have left the Eastern European country when they had the chance. In a statement late today, the U.K. urged British nationals to “leave now via commercial means while they remain available.” — More troops headed to Poland: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team to Poland, a senior DoD official told POLITICO. The contingent will add to forces ordered to deploy there last week and will bring the total number of U.S. troops sent to Poland and Germany to 5,000. — Invasion could come before Olympics end: Three official sources in Washington and Europe told Nahal Toosi and Paul McLeary that intelligence shared with them by the United States pinpointed Feb. 16 as a possible start date for the invasion. Publicly, however, aides to Biden would not confirm a specific date other than to say that — counter to much public speculation and some previous assessments from Washington — an invasion could begin before the Feb. 20 end of the Beijing Winter Olympics. — Biden and Putin plan to talk Saturday: Biden and the Russian leader will hold a call on Saturday morning, a senior administration official told POLITICO. Russia proposed a Monday call, the official said, but the U.S. counterproposed Saturday, and Moscow accepted. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at rrayasam@politico.com and tweyant@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam and @tweyant .   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     AROUND THE NATION THE LULL THE LULL MIGHT END — Renu emails Nightly: When the pandemic first settled into our daily life — when we started to realize that two weeks to flatten the curve was woefully inadequate — many predicted that so much forced home life would also spark a divorce surge. Nearly two years later, it’s clear that marriages didn’t buckle under the virus. But now, on the cusp of our second pandemic Valentine’s Day, with mask and other mandates lifting, there’s a sense among divorce lawyers that some long-delayed splits are on the way. The Covid lull may end the divorce lull.  “Some speculate there may be, quote unquote, pent up demand,” said Cary Mogerman, a St. Louis-based attorney who is the president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “I will say this: Last month, I’ve seen a lot of new traffic and it’s different than last year at this time.” The divorce rate has been on the decline for decades , and so far, the pandemic hasn’t disrupted that long-term trend, said Wendy Manning, founder of the Center for Family and Demographic Research at Bowling Green State University. Manning and her team looked at administrative data in 35 states and found that the number of divorces continued going down in 2020. In some states, divorce declined more than it had in previous years. The pandemic absolutely increased relationship conflict , Manning said. Couples continued to fight over many of the same issues, child care, money, housework, rather than social distancing or masking. But couples are generally less likely to get divorced during times of economic uncertainty, Mogerman said. In the aftermath of the 2008 recession, he said that his phone didn’t ring for six months. So the reason that divorces didn’t spike before — the economy and life uncertainty — may also be the reason that they could start to take off this year. Divorce is expensive, moving out can be tricky and court proceedings were delayed by the pandemic. Even so, Manning isn’t ready to predict a 2022 divorce surge. She believes there are also pandemic-related reasons why fewer couples are splitting up — it’s been harder to have an affair and some families benefited from extra bonding time at home. Marriage rates, as well as divorce rates, are on the decline. Those who are getting married tend to be more educated and wealthier, giving them a better chance of weathering the pandemic with minimal economic disruption. “There is a lot of media right now about how marriage is the pathway to success in life,” Manning said. But as much as Democrats and Republicans want to support stable families and marriage, there isn’t a readymade policy that can just promote marriage and prevent potential divorce surge, she said. “You can’t just slap marriage on people,” she said. Still, romantics have at least one reason to take heart this year. Nearly 2.5 million weddings are expected to take place in 2022, according to the Wedding Report, an industry trade group. That’s the most weddings since 1984, which is also around the time that divorce rates started dropping.   DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? — FDA delays meeting on kid vaccines as Pfizer promises more data: The Food and Drug Administration is delaying its planned Tuesday meeting of outside advisers to consider recommending Covid-19 vaccines for children under 5 years old after new data from Pfizer and BioNTech convinced regulators to wait for more information about the effectiveness of a third dose. Peter Marks, director of the agency’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, declined to explain what new information prompted the decision. — Trucker convoy forces Canada’s largest province into state of emergency: Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency today in a province struggling to break up trucker protests besieging Ottawa and jamming an economically crucial bridge to the United States. The leader of Canada’s most-populous province said his Cabinet will enact orders making it illegal to block and impede the movement of goods, people and services along critical infrastructure. The punishments include fines as high as C$100,000 and up to a year in prison. Hundreds of truck drivers and their supporters gather to block the streets of downtown Ottawa, Ontario. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images — American truckers distance from Canada protests: The vehicle blockades that have snarled North American supply chains, paralyzed Canada’s capital and inspired threats of a copycat convoy to Washington, D.C., may have started with truck drivers irate about mask and vaccine mandates. But the grievances of the protests’ biggest champions bear little similarity to the demands that U.S. truck drivers’ union reps and trade groups typically bring to Washington. — Dem duo’s warning of CIA ‘warrantless backdoor searches’ revives domestic spying debate: A newly declassified letter from two Democratic senators warning that the CIA has been conducting “warrantless backdoor searches” of Americans’ data is roiling Washington’s long-running debate over balancing national security with civil liberties. In an April letter declassified on Thursday, Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico allege that the CIA “has secretly conducted its own bulk program … outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection.” — Sarah Palin’s lawyers: New York Times libeled her amidst pattern of sliming conservatives: Sarah Palin’s lawyers offered jurors a simple explanation for why The New York Times used a 2017 editorial to link Palin to a deadly shooting in Arizona six years earlier: a long-standing political vendetta against conservatives . On several occasions during his summation of the evidence in a Manhattan courtroom, Turkel argued that the Times’ decision to reference Palin’s political action committee in the editorial spurred by a shooting at a GOP congressional baseball practice in Virginia was part of a pattern at the newspaper of slurring Republicans. NIGHTLY NUMBER 8 The number of accounts a POLITICO analysis found associated with deceased politicians that still have money in the bank , some with hundreds of thousands of dollars, or debts that, according to Federal Election Commission records, remain unpaid. These zombie PACs and campaign committees have been paying for such things as communications consulting, campaign contributions, car rentals, or fees for former associates.  PUNCHLINES COLD SOUP TURNS HOT TOPIC — Political cartoonists and satirists had a field day with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s gestapo-gazpacho mixup, and Matt Wuerker and Brooke Minters found the best bits on the incident for the latest Weekend Wrap. PARTING WORDS A view of SoFi Stadium as workers prepare for Super Bowl LVI in Inglewood, Calif. | Ronald Martinez/Getty Images BIG GAME, BIGGER SPORT — Before you get your snacks and drinks ready for the Super Bowl, read Derek Robertson ’s essay, coming Sunday in POLITICO Magazine, on the NFL’s unlikely journey to becoming America’s most resilient institution. Here’s an excerpt: A recent Los Angeles Times/SurveyMonkey poll found that one-third of its respondents declared themselves less of a football fan than they were five years ago, and that those in that cohort were far more likely to express discomfort with the league’s recent gestures toward solidarity with the movement for racial justice. Keep in mind, however, that people say plenty of surprising things to pollsters, and then consider the disconnect between said responses and the league’s reality: NFL ratings are the highest they’ve been since 2015, and football is consistently and overwhelmingly the most-watched thing on television. Franchise values continue to climb to dizzying heights. Even in-person attendance is slightly up from before the pandemic. Disgruntled fans can claim all they want that they’ve kicked the habit over some cultural grievance, but all evidence indicates they’re still crawling back each autumn and winter Sunday. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO NIGHTLY: Why the partisan Putin split persists

 

BY ELANA SCHOR Presented by AT&T With help from Renuka Rayasam A view of the U.S. Capitol at sunset. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images FROM RUSSIA WITH BITTERNESS— When geopolitical tensions flare, they sometimes spark unexpected moments of bipartisanship on the Hill. Lawmakers often, though not always, align broadly behind presidential displays of overseas power. That doesn’t look like it’s going to happen with U.S.-Russia policy this week, even after President Vladimir Putin’s government spent weeks moving troops near its border with Ukraine. The first reason is painfully simple: Five years of partisan scuffling over Russian interference in the 2016 election, to the benefit of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, has hurt lawmakers’ ability to forge credible cooperation on U.S.-Russia policy . After Democrats blasted Trump for his moments of apparent coziness with Putin, they’re now facing an attempted role-reversal moment with a GOP that wants to get as tough as possible, pressing for strong Russia sanctions to take effect immediately. In a way, that’s just Washington: The party out of power always looks to turn the tables, rhetorically, on the one with control. But in this case, Dems are also trying not to lose the political upper hand on Russia after their rhetoric during the Trump years. About that dynamic: Senators may be able to agree on a package of strong Russia sanctions, but they’re currently mired in debate over whether to hinge that financial punishment on a Russian invasion of Ukraine (as Dems would prefer) or pursue it immediately (as the GOP wants to do). “Even if Congress can cobble together and pass a bipartisan sanctions deal, don’t expect Republicans to get behind Biden’s Russia strategy,” POLITICO’s Hill foreign policy specialist, Andrew Desiderio, told Nightly. “Democrats spent enormous political capital bludgeoning Donald Trump for his deferential posture toward Putin, and Republicans are turning the tables on Biden,” Andrew added. “Look no further than the near- party-line split over Sen. Ted Cruz’s Nord Stream 2 sanctions bill, and what Republicans see as Biden’s fatal error in refusing to immediately impose sanctions as a deterrent to an invasion.” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) put it this way to Andrew today: “President Biden has really subscribed to a doctrine of appeasement. And that doesn’t deter an autocrat or a dictator like Putin.” The second reason we shouldn’t expect Russian aggression toward Ukraine to prompt much cross-aisle unity is the political hangover from the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal that Biden presided over in August. Just as they did after the fall of Kabul, Republicans are readying a message that tries to turn a foreign crisis into a political weak spot for a president who staked his campaign in part on his ability to rebuild America’s reputation abroad. “When Americans were rushing to evacuate the American embassy in Afghanistan, Biden was on vacation,” the Republican National Committee tweeted amid reports of evacuations of U.S. embassy employees’ family members in Ukraine. “This weekend, he’s on vacation again.” And the third reason Biden shouldn’t expect politics to end at the water’s edge with the GOP on his approach to Moscow is simply that the current situation in Ukraine doesn’t resemble the last two major occasions when presidents won support — albeit measured and short-lived support — for targeted actions overseas. When then-Presidents Trump and Obama pursued airstrikes in Syria, those were limited operations with a professed goal of punishing a regime that built a chemical weapons program and eventually used it against its citizens. Biden’s administration is facing a problem with a complex array of possible solutions. The sheer scope of his options, militarily and diplomatically, doesn’t lend itself easily to rifle-shot statements of congressional support for specific aspects of his Russia policy. Biden has made clear he won’t directly bring troops into Ukraine. Rather, his goal is to support and protect neighboring NATO powers. And just as top Democrats followed Trump’s Syria strikes with clear insistence on a comprehensive plan to follow through, so will Republicans seek a longer-term strategy from Biden — even as they look for potential failings in anything they hear from him. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at eschor@politico.com, on Twitter at @eschor.   A message from AT&T: Accessible, affordable broadband helps communities reach their American Dream. That’s why we’re making a $2 billion, 3-year commitment toward helping close the digital divide, so more low-income families have the ability to succeed. Learn more.   ON THE ECONOMY Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images THE MARKET BETS ON REOPENING — The stock market ended the day up for the first time in a week. But the longer-term trend has been sharply negative for the stay-at-home stocks that thrived in 2020 — including Zoom, Netflix, Peloton and DocuSign. These quarantine favorites have all seen their share prices decline drastically in recent months. Investors seem to have soured on the companies that were once the darlings of the pandemic market. It’s a selloff within the broader selloff that has pushed markets into the sharpest drops in nearly a year. Stock market indices entered correction territory — a 10 percent drop from the highs they reached earlier in the year — today before recovering. Nightly’s Renuka Rayasam chatted with wealth manager Barry Ritholtz, who also writes a Bloomberg column, hosts its “Masters in Business” podcast and was one of the earliest finance bloggers, about whether the market is over the pandemic. This conversation has been edited. I keep hearing that the market trajectory is going to follow the pandemic trajectory. Is that still the case? That is backward. The market is telling you where we’re going to go. The market collapsed when we were pretty early in the pandemic process. Long before there was any confirmation vaccines would be widely available, the market began to recover. We passed the CARES Act, which was a $2 trillion dollar bill. The market said, “Oh this is going to go a long way to getting us towards a healthy recovery.” It’s very much a forward indicator and more often than not, it’s right. What does the collapse of the stay-at-home stocks tell us about how the market is thinking about the pandemic? This is the market’s way of telling us that we are much closer to the end of the pandemic, and a return to a more normal lifestyle, than we are to the beginning of it. These corrections started quite a while ago. Normally we’re about a 61 percent service, 39 percent goods economy. During the lockdown we probably moved closer to 45 percent/ 55 percent. Peloton or Netflix are both perfect examples of that. The market is seemingly telling you that the low-hanging fruit with both of these stocks have been picked off. Anybody who wanted a Peloton ordered it. With Netflix, there is now a whole lot more competition. Is the market anticipating a return to 2019, to a pre-pandemic “normal”? As things normalize and we’re no longer stuck at home, we’ll go back to that sort of 60/40 services to goods ratio. But I don’t think it’s going to quite go back to exactly how it was. We’re going to be in a new post-pandemic era, post-normal economy. I think that there is enough pandemic fatigue that people are now increasingly willing to go about their lives and assume a little more risk in being out in the world. That bodes better for movie theaters and weaker for Netflix. It bodes better for gyms and weaker for Pelotons.   JOIN NEXT FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Capitol Police examines backgrounds, social media feeds of some who meet with lawmakers: After the Jan. 6 insurrection, the Capitol Police’s intelligence unit quietly started scrutinizing the backgrounds of people who meet with lawmakers, according to three people familiar with the matter. POLITICO also viewed written communications describing the new approach, part of a host of changes that the department implemented after the Capitol attack. Several Capitol Police intelligence analysts have already raised concerns about the practice to the department’s inspector general, according to one of the people who spoke for this story. — Supreme Court will take up Harvard, UNC affirmative action challenge:The Supreme Court agreed to hear two cases that could have broad ramifications for how colleges and universities consider race in their admissions process. In the lawsuit Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, SFFA asked the high court to overturn its ruling in a landmark affirmative action case — Grutter v. Bollinger — that has shaped college admissions policies for nearly two decades. SFFA, which represents about 20,000 students, alleges the Ivy League school intentionally discriminates against Asian American students in admissions. — California lawmaker proposes Covid vaccine mandate for all schoolchildren: A California state senator is proposing to require that all schoolchildren receive a Covid-19 vaccine starting in 2023, a law that would be the nation’s strictest student mandate if approved. As detailed by state Sen. Richard Pan (D-Sacramento), the bill would not be contingent on a vaccine receiving full approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, nor would it allow for personal or religious exemptions. That would go beyond a previous order that Gov. Gavin Newsom issued in October. — Palin’s positive Covid test postpones libel case against New York Times: The start of Sarah Palin’s libel suit against the New York Times was postponed today after the former Alaska governor tested positive for Covid-19. Judge Jed Rakoff pushed back jury selection until at least Feb. 3, though he warned the delay could extend further. At the outset of the day’s hearing the judge said he was informed over the weekend that Palin, who the judge noted is unvaccinated, tested positive via two rapid, at-home tests. In December, Palin said at a conservative event that she would get vaccinated “over my dead body,” and previously tested positive for Covid-19 in March 2021.   A message from AT&T:     AROUND THE WORLD EU DIPLOMATS STAYING PUT IN KYIV — The EU does not plan to withdraw the families of diplomats from Ukraine , the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said today. Speaking in Brussels ahead of talks with European foreign affairs ministers and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Borrell told reporters that America’s top diplomat will “explain us the reasons” for Washington’s decision to pull out families of U.S. personnel from Ukraine, Lili Bayer and Louis Westendarp write. Washington has authorized the departure of some government employees and ordered the exit of all family members of government employees at its Kyiv embassy. The U.K. followed Washington’s lead today, saying it was withdrawing some “embassy staff and dependents” in response to the “growing threat from Russia.” Borrell, however, said that for now the EU is not following suit. “We are not going to do the same thing, because we don’t know any specific reasons,” Borrell said, adding that “negotiations are going on.”   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     NIGHTLY NUMBER About 8,500 The number of U.S. military personnel Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has placed on heightened alert to potentially deploy to Eastern Europe, the Pentagon announced today. The move comes as NATO weighs a possible activation of its response force to beat back a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the West fears is imminent. PARTING WORDS DEFENSIVE SHIFT — The nation’s top financial regulators will soon embark on a controversial, first-of-its-kind mission: forcing banks and other industry players to prepare for potential threats to the U.S. financial system from climate change, Victoria Guida writes. But they’re facing a maze of obstacles, including blowback from Republicans, before they’ve taken their first steps. All the leading agencies will be headed by progressive regulators who will seek to push the administration’s agenda forward even as Biden has failed to get broader climate-related legislation through Congress. Among other moves, regulators are likely to press banks to prepare for the fallout from a warming planet by stepping up scrutiny of fossil fuel financing. They will make the lenders undergo regular tests to measure how their investments could be threatened by flooding, wildfires and other growing risks. And they could rewrite the rules against the discriminatory practice known as redlining to push lenders to put money into disadvantaged communities most vulnerable to climate change. That will set up a clash with Republican lawmakers, who argue that the banks are capable of assessing their own risks and that the regulators are far overstepping their bounds. And banks themselves are nervously eyeing how aggressively the Democrat-controlled agencies will lean into measures that discourage investment in oil and gas.   A message from AT&T: Brooke Dryden’s daughter was diagnosed with learning disabilities at an early age. She requires an individualized education plan and weekly therapy with speech specialists. However, rural Colorado does not have the kind of specialists she needs. With the help of accessible and affordable broadband, Brooke is able to ensure that she receives regular virtual therapy and never falls behind. Brooke’s dream is to see her daughter not just survive but thrive in the world. That’s why AT&T is dedicated to helping close the digital divide with a $2 billion, 3-year commitment, so more low-income families like Brooke's can achieve their American Dream. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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