| | |  | BY LISA KASHINSKY | MAYORAL MATH — Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George like to say the only polls that matter are the ones that close at 8 p.m. tonight. But they’re not the only numbers that define Boston’s historic mayor’s race. Let’s do some calculus: 412 — The number of days Wu’s been running for mayor. 278 — The number of days Essaibi George has been running for mayor. 90 — The rough number of forums Wu estimates she’s taken part in over the course of the campaign. 30 — The average number of percentage points Wu leads Essaibi George by in the four public polls of the general election. 135,000 — The turnout figure both Secretary of State Bill Galvin and Democratic consultant Wilnelia Rivera predict for Boston today. That’s lower than the 142,000 ballots cast in 2013, when voters sent Marty Walsh to the mayor’s office. “I hope I’m wrong,” Galvin said . “For whatever reason, I guess no one’s terribly frightened by the prospect of either of the finalists becoming mayor, or terribly excited.” $4.1 million — The combined amount of money Wu and Essaibi George raised from January through the end of October, per the most recent state campaign finance tallies (the candidates' full October reports will post later this week). Wu hauled in more than $2.2 million, while Essaibi George raked in $1.9 million. $3.5 million — The combined amount of money Wu and Essaibi George spent from January through October. Wu shelled out nearly $2 million, while Essaibi George spent $1.5 million. $3.4 million — The amount of money independent expenditure PACs spent in the mayor’s race. Outside groups doled out nearly $1.8 million in support of Essaibi George and nearly $1.3 million in support of Wu. They also spent $342,500 against Wu. $1.7 million — The amount of money the candidates and PACs spent on television and digital ads in the general election, per AdImpact, an ad tracking service. (Candidates and PACs spent a combined $6.7 million on ads from January through October). Countless — The number of times Wu thinks her two youngsters have crashed her Zooms. Not as many as you think — The number of times Essaibi George utters her campaign catchphrase "the teachah, the mothah, the mayah" (she says people say it to her more than she says it to them). GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Happy Election Day! Here are a couple other races I'm watching today. FRAMINGHAM MAYOR — Yvonne Spicer smashed a glass ceiling when she became the first popularly elected Black female mayor in Massachusetts (and the first mayor of Framingham). Now her job is on the line. Former city councilor Charlie Sisitsky more than doubled Spicer’s vote total in the September preliminary election, so she’s got a lot of ground to make up to win a second term. Here are your mayor’s race guides. 4TH ESSEX DISTRICT PRIMARIES — Voters will also cast ballots today in the race to replace former state Rep. Brad Hill in the 4th Essex District (which won’t exist in its current form under the redistricting map sitting on Gov. Charlie Baker’s desk). Republicans Lisa-Marie Cashman and Robert “Bob” Snow, and Democrats Jamie Belsito and Darcyll Dale are competing to make it through to the Nov. 30 special election. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Want live analysis of the Boston mayor’s race and other key elections around the country? My POLITICO colleagues and I have you covered starting at 7 p.m. Join our live chat here. TODAY — Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito attend a 5:30 p.m. fundraiser at Dillon's in Boston. Polito joins state and local officials for a MassWorks grant announcement in Watertown at 10:30 a.m. Doors open at 7 p.m. for Essaibi George’s election night party at the Copley Fairmont Plaza. Wu’s election night party kicks off after 8 p.m. at the Cyclorama on Tremont Street. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: lkashinsky@politico.com. | |
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| – OUT WITH THE OLD: Meet the Legislature’s new proposed congressional map. It’s not too different from the current congressional map. Among the notable changes, Fall River would no longer be split between two congressional districts. Advocates wanted Fall River made whole. But they’re already criticizing the Legislature for not putting Fall River and New Bedford in the same district, per WPRI's Ted Nesi. The proposed map puts all of Fall River in Rep. Jake Auchincloss’s 4th District, which he cheered , while New Bedford would stay in Rep. Bill Keating’s 9th District. Keating jeered the plan, saying there’s “no convincing reason” to divide the South Coast’s “Gateway City anchors.” Speaking of Auchincloss , the newest member of the delegation lost some towns he won in last year’s hotly contested Democratic primary. But he also shed part of Wellesley and Hopkinton, two communities carried by Jesse Mermell, who’s mulling a potential rematch. Rep. Lori Trahan’s 3rd District excised Andover, home to Dan Koh, who narrowly lost the 2018 Democratic primary to Trahan and nearly challenged her again last year. He’s now Labor Secretary Marty Walsh’s chief of staff. – More from the Boston Globe’s Matt Stout: “Senator William N. Brownsberger, a Belmont Democrat and the Senate chairman of the Legislature’s redistricting committee, said lawmakers got ‘clear feedback to unify’ Fall River into one district. But legislative leaders indicated they also had to juggle other demands beyond calls to ensure it and New Bedford shared representation. … In the hours after the map’s release, the decision became a flashpoint about the proposal, which largely nipped and tucked the edges of many districts and increased the share of people of color in the Seventh District, the state’s only majority-minority district, currently represented by Ayanna Pressley of Boston.” – “Population shift leads to district changes for US Reps. Richard Neal, James McGovern,” by Jim Kinney, Springfield Republican: “Massachusetts’ 1st Congressional District, represented by U.S. Rep. Richard E. Neal, D-Springfield, will likely shrink at its northern tip, jettisoning a dozen towns in Franklin and Hampshire counties where unsuccessful challenger Alex Morse did well in 2020.” | | THE RACE FOR CITY HALL |
| – CLOSING ARGUMENTS: “‘We’re down to the wire here’: Michelle Wu, Annissa Essaibi George make final pitch in Boston mayoral race,” by Danny McDonald and Emma Platoff, Boston Globe: “More than a year of campaigning came to an energetic close Monday as mayoral candidates Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George talked, dined, glad-handed, and door-knocked their way through the city’s many neighborhoods. … ‘I’ve got about a day left in my voice, so it’s just the perfect timing,’ [Essaibi George] told reporters on the sunny sidewalk.” – The Boston Herald’s Sean Philip Cotter has more: “‘My message has always been that what I bring to the table — my experience as a city councilor, as a former classroom teacher, as a small business owner — is my commitment to this city,' [Essaibi George said]. … ‘There was a stark choice in this election, and we are standing on the brink of history where Boston has a chance to choose between nibbling around the edges of the status quo or taking the big bold actions that we have needed for a long time,’ Wu said.” – Not everyone is sold. State Rep. Russell Holmes — who organized a forum for Wu and Essaibi George to address issues facing Boston’s Black and brown residents and who's been active in GOTV efforts those communities — didn’t endorse. The Mattapan Democrat told me that’s in part because neither candidate got specific enough on how they’d diversify the city’s police, fire and EMS departments, or how they’d boost the percentage of minority businesses getting city contracts, among other issues. Holmes isn't the only Boston pol who said they struggled for specifics from the candidates on policing and more in the race’s waning days. – “On Eve of Boston Mayoral Election, Negative Ads Make Waves,” by Alison King, NBC10 Boston: “The race has taken a turn for the negative in recent days with the release of an attack ad aimed at Wu from a PAC supporting Essaibi George claiming Wu got a sweetheart deal on her Roslindale home — an assertion that has been proven inaccurate. Asked about the ad, Essaibi George said, ‘I have denounced the PACs. I've asked the PACs months ago to step out of this race’ … Asked if she feels Essaibi George has done enough to reject negative ads, [Wu] replied, ‘No.'" – POLL POSITION: Essaibi George is undeterred by public polls that’ve shown her down by anywhere from 25 to 32 points. "We have sent more than 100,000 text messages, we have knocked almost 150,000 doors and we have made half a million phone calls” over the weekend, she told supporters at her final rally last night in Hyde Park. “The Secretary of State has predicted a low number. That is unacceptable. We have identified more votes than what he predicts will show up. You know what that means? We are going to blow this election out of the water.” – THE VOTER GUIDES: “We spoke to Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George at length. Here are their thoughts on the key issues in Boston’s mayoral race,” by Nik DeCosta Klipa, Boston.com. – “We asked Boston’s city council candidates about the city’s most pressing issues. Here are their answers,” by Mia McCarthy and Mihiro Shimano, Boston.com. – “Here’s your guide to Election Day in Boston,” by Amanda Kaufman, Boston Globe. – “Seven Political Subplots To Watch In Boston — On Election Day And Beyond,” by Adam Reilly, GBH News. | | THE LOCAL ELECTIONS ROUNDUP |
| – “Super PAC backed by Baker spends $258,936,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: “A super PAC for which Gov. Charlie Baker raises money made its third series of investments on behalf of a total of 19 municipal candidates over the weekend, bringing its total expenditures over the last 10 days to $258,936.” – “Lowell election preview: what’s at stake in today’s election,” by Alana Melanson, Lowell Sun: “The first full, general election run of Lowell’s new voting system, which will greatly change how the City Council and School Committee are composed, starts today.” | | FEELING '22 |
| – “Messaging, Commitment Questions Factoring Into Baker’s Choice,” by Katie Lannan, State House News Service (paywall): “Still not ready to announce his 2022 plans, Gov. Charlie Baker on Monday outlined ‘three big questions’ on his mind as he mulls whether to seek a third term. ‘The first one is do you believe you have something productive and helpful to say,’ Baker said. ‘Do you have the desire and the commitment to serve the people of the constituency that you represent? And do you believe that this is something you want to spend the next few years of your life working on if you're fortunate enough to succeed?’” | | THE LATEST NUMBERS |
| – “Massachusetts reports 3,243 coronavirus cases over the weekend, nearly 500,000 booster shots given,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “The 3,243 infection tally was similar to last weekend’s three-day total of 3,173 cases. The daily average over the weekend was 1,081 cases, compared to the daily average of 1,058 infections last weekend.” | | VAX-ACHUSETTS |
| – “Baker: Suspensions of unvaccinated Massachusetts workers ‘scattered’ throughout executive departments,” by Erin Tiernan, Boston Herald: “[Gov. Charlie] Baker on Monday said he and his administration are ‘still working our way through some of the folks who sought exemptions and we’re trying to be very careful and deliberate about that.’” – “Worcester’s vaccine mandate began Monday with 93% of city side employees complying, officials said,” by Michael Bonner, MassLive: “As a vaccine mandate for all city of Worcester employees began on Monday, City Manager Edward Augustus Jr. said 93% of the city side workforce, which doesn’t include the school district, are compliant with the order.” – “Nearly 1,000 UMass Memorial Health employees still unvaccinated against COVID; At least one dose needed by Dec. 1 or they’ll lose their jobs, company says,” by Michael Bonner, MassLive. | | FROM THE HUB |
| – “Boston begins to remove tents on Methadone Mile,” by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: “The rubber hit the road in the government’s Mass and Cass plans, with the city taking away 16 tents and moving 17 people toward beds and the ‘community resource’ court nearby beginning to hear cases. ” – More from GBH News’ Tori Bedford: “Three defendants were held in individual cells at the Suffolk County Jail after being detained Monday morning. One of three defendants — all of whom were described in court proceedings as experiencing substance use disorder — one, Phillip Curtis Houston, 41, from Boston, was allowed treatment in a medical facility in Quincy. The two others, Patrick Michael Kennefick of West Roxbury, 37, and Maxwell Kolodka of Gardner, 33, were denied access to a formal detox facility and were ordered to spend the night in a jail cell.” | | PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES |
| – “MBTA removes The Ride software provider, citing poor service for riders with disabilities,” by Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe: “The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority has stopped using Routematch, an Uber-owned software provider for The Ride paratransit system, ending a deal that was meant to improve transportation service for people with disabilities. ” | | THE LOCAL ANGLE |
| – “Fall River Mayor Paul Coogan says wife is expected to recover after serious bicycle crash,” by Jo C. Goode, Herald News: “Judi St. Hilaire, the wife of Mayor Paul Coogan who suffered severe injuries after being hit by a vehicle during a 60-mile group bike ride in Mattapoisett on Sunday, is expected to recover, said her husband Monday morning.” – “As cable companies lose customers, public access TV channels are paying a price,” by Lillian Eden, MetroWest Daily News: “If you’re one of many people in the United States who has decided to do away with cable in the last few years — or never had it to begin with — you’re not alone. But the exodus is cutting in to the revenue that makes certain services possible. Specifically, Public, Education and Government channels, or PEG channels.” | | MEANWHILE IN RHODE ISLAND |
| – “Labor Secretary Walsh says job training in Rhode Island could be scaled nationally,” by Alexa Gagosz, Boston Globe: “Bringing back jobs to American shores and investing in workforce development programs will be critical for the labor force and to relieve the current stress on the supply chain, Labor Secretary Martin J. Walsh told The Boston Globe Monday. … Walsh was taken on a whirlwind trip through Rhode Island, including a tour of the Warwick campus of the New England Institute of Technology in the morning with members of the Rhode Island delegation.” | | MEANWHILE IN MAINE |
| – “Baker calls Maine ballot fight ‘a big deal’,” by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: “Gov. Charlie Baker indicated he will be closely watching what happens in Maine on Tuesday, where voters will decide the fate of a ballot question that could block construction of a transmission line being built with money from Massachusetts electricity ratepayers to bring carbon-free hydro-electricity into New England. … The Baker administration is counting on the hydro-electricity to help achieve the governor’s zero net emissions target by 2050.” | | MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE |
| – “Keeping Up with the Browns,” by Dave Wedge, Boston Magazine: “Before we parted ways, I blurted out the question that had been on my mind all day: Will you ever run for office again? In response, Scott smiled broadly and told me he is only 62. Then he admitted what everyone has long suspected: ‘I have another run in me,’ he said, adding, ‘just not right now. ’” CONGRATS – to Gina Christo of Rivera Consulting and Evelyn Aparicio of MBA Consulting on their weekend engagement. Christo and Aparicio met on the 2016 Ted Strickland for Senate race and had a GOTV-themed engagement to celebrate what brought them together. Pics. HAPPY BIRTHDAY – to Jeffrey A. Hoffman, Sofia Vilar of J Strategies and Amy Finkelstein. Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | |
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