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Showing posts with label NORWAY. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Mild Omicron could still be bad

 



 
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BY JOANNE KENEN

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With help from Myah Ward

Members of the public line up for Covid-19 vaccinations and booster jabs at St Thomas' Hospital in London.

Members of the public line up for Covid-19 vaccinations and booster jabs at St Thomas' Hospital in London. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

NOT SO TENDER AND MILD — The early indications suggest that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus typically causes disease that is “mild.” But even if that turns out to be true, “mild” doesn’t mean “no big deal.”

Mild Covid-19 can still cause a whole lot of illness, a whole lot of economic disruption, a whole lot of strain on health care systems around the world. In the U.S., the big Omicron wave could hit in January when we could also be wrestling with a travel-propelled post-Christmas Delta surge. Plus maybe the flu.

“I’m very worried,” said Marcus Plescia, the chief medical officer at the American Society of State and Territorial Health Officials.

Obviously, a case of mild Covid is preferable to coming down with the Vaccine-Evading Killer Bug From Hell that we worried about when we first learned of mutation-riddled Omicrom over Thanksgiving. But because Omicron is so contagious, there could be many, many cases — an exponential outbreak.

“This is going to take off. The numbers of people who get sick will be substantial,” Plescia said. And even if only a very small proportion of them end up with severe disease, that still adds up to a lot of very sick people.

For instance, if the fatality rate for Omicron turned out to be only one-fourth of that for “original” Covid, but Omicron infected four times as many people, then the same number of lives would be lost.

“It’s the math,” said Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist at NYU.

And “mild” to an epidemiologist doesn’t mean the same thing that “mild” indicates to you and me. Mild to us means not feeling so bad. Mild to the public health professional just means you aren’t in the hospital.

“It can knock you off your feet and debilitate you for a few days and we’d still call it mild,” Plescia said.

Megan Ranney, an emergency physician at Brown, told Nightly that mild can mean anything from the sniffles to being so feverish and achy that you have to miss school and work — at a time when kids have already missed quite enough school and workplaces are short-staffed. She’s still wearing a mask in public settings.

“Even if I don’t get super-sick, thanks to the vaccines,” she emailed me last night, “I can’t afford to take 10 days off of work.”

Just as important, the whole “Omicron is mild” theory is tentative. It’s unclear how “mild” the variant’s disease will be in various populations, Gounder said — the vaxxed, the double-vaxxed, the boosted, the unvaccinated, or people with recent prior Covid infections, not-so-recent prior covid infections, no past infections.

It’s also way too early to have any idea about the long-Covid risks of Omicron. As Ranney noted, the science isn’t settled on the risk of long Covid in Delta breakthroughs, and that variant has been around for several months now.

With Omicron rising, the public health world really wants people who are still unvaccinated to get themselves — and their age-eligible kids — immunized. Concern about Omicron has spurred more vaccinated people to get boosters, but for the unvaccinated, the variant actually creates a tough messaging challenge. The public health messengers are saying, “The extremely contagious Omicron is coming!! Get your shot!” But the unvaccinated people are hearing, “Oh but it’s mild.”

Like so much with this pandemic, it’s all in the ear of the beholder.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author on Twitter at @JoanneKenen.

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ON THE ECONOMY

Children draw on top of a

Children draw on top of a "cancelled check" prop during a rally in front of the U.S. Capitol. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

BIRTH AND TAXES  The final monthly child tax credit payment of 2021 goes out Wednesday to 35 million families. Now it’s up to Democrats to pass President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill by Dec. 31 if they don’t want the benefits to lapse in January — or even become the final payment, period, writes Nightly’s Myah Ward.

The American Rescue Plan, passed in March, increased the tax credit from $2,000 per child to as much as $3,600, depending on the age of child. The monthly payments began in July, with deposits of $300 for children under 6 and $250 for kids 6 to 17. Families will get the rest of the money when they file their 2021 tax returns, as will other parents who didn’t opt to receive monthly cash.

Democrats are hopeful that if anything can unify their party as monthslong, grueling negotiations have forced them right up against the year-end deadline, it’s a historic antipoverty effort for children, POLITICO’s Congress team reported this week.

Roughly 450 economists signed a letter to Congress this fall in support of extending the fully refundable child tax credit. In the letter, the economists, including several Nobel Prize winners, cited a growing body of research that indicates the expanded CTC “can dramatically improve the lives of millions of children” while also “promoting our country’s long-term economic prosperity” by addressing child poverty.

“It’s hard to get economists to agree on things, but this is one of those cases where the economic research is so strong and telling such a consistent story,” Jacob Goldin, an economist and law professor at Stanford University who signed the letter, told Nightly. “They’re such a good long-term investment, and to do anything that would jeopardize that investment, doesn’t make any sense at all.”

In October, CTC payments reached 61.1 million children and kept 3.6 million from poverty, according to Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy, which releases monthly numbers showing how many children the CTC has kept from poverty.

November’s numbers are expected to be even higher when the center releases the data later this week, Megan Curran, policy director at the center, told Nightly.

Families’ most common use of CTC payments was for purchasing food, according to national data from researchers at Washington University in St. Louis, using Census data. Food tops the list in every U.S. state, except for Mississippi, where food and school essentials are neck and neck.

U.S. Census data shows significant drops in food insecurity and that families spent CTC checks on school costs and child care when children returned to classrooms this fall. Mastercard data paints the same picture, showing that CTC money drove back-to-school spending in late August.

Republicans have called the expanded credit “welfare,” expressing concerns the extra cash keeps otherwise working parents at home. But six months in, Curran said, there is no evidence CTC payments have reduced employment. A national survey from the Center for Law and Social Policy shows that some families say CTC has helped them work more hours outside of the home.

“The fact that a single policy can reduce child poverty by 3 to 3.5 million children in a single month is not something that we see in terms of policy impacts for kids in child poverty in this country,” Curran said.

Democrats’ biggest barricade to passing their social safety net bill, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), is telling colleagues that the CTC is the biggest inflation driver in the bill, Axios reported Monday.

The argument is that inflation is hurting the poor, and by stopping CTC payments, people would spend less and therefore reduce inflationary pressures. But the argument is thin, Goldin said, adding that there are other ways to reduce inflationary pressures without cutting resources to families in need.

“The weight of the evidence is that the factors driving inflation are primarily short-term factors,” Goldin said. “And the idea that we would cut short this long-term, important investment out of a misguided effort to deal with those short-term inflationary pressures would be about as big a mistake as we can make.”

 

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ON THE HILL

VOTING OR BBB? Senate Democrats are desperately trying to avoid ending the year stalled on their two top priorities: elections reform and their expansive bill to address climate and the social safety net.

At the center of it all sits Manchin.

During Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s leadership meeting on Monday evening, Democratic senators hotly debated how to handle their two biggest unfinished tasks, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett write. Some Democrats say they should kick both issues until next year. Others argue the party’s leverage over Manchin won’t improve over time and want action now. And interviews today revealed a party wrestling with how to clinch its top priorities.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said he spent the weekend talking to Manchin and other Democrats about prioritizing legislation on ballot access, which he called a “moral question” that his party needs to confront.

“Voting rights should be the very next thing we do,” Warnock told reporters. “We’ve got to get Medicaid expansion, we’ve got to get child care, we’ve got to get relief to farmers. All of those things matter. But the point I’m making in this moment is: we have to have a democratic framework to continue to push for those things.”

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Judge scraps Trump lawsuit to shield tax returns from Congress: A federal judge has rejected former President Donald Trump’s bid to block congressional Democrats from obtaining his tax returns . Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee to federal District Court in D.C., said Trump was “wrong on the law” and that Congress is due “great deference” in its inquiries. “Even the special solicitude accorded former Presidents does not alter the outcome,” McFadden wrote in a 45-page ruling. “The Court will therefore dismiss this case.”

— Senate passes $2.5T debt limit increase, sending to House: The Senate passed a measure tonight to raise the debt limit to nearly $31 trillion as Democrats race to clear the increase before the United States risks an economically devastating default. The chamber voted 50-49 to adopt the legislation. Across the Capitol, House Democrats are ready to clear the measure for President Joe Biden’s signature as soon as tonight, saving the Treasury Department from fully exhausting its ability to pay interest on the nation's $29 trillion in loans — an economic crisis that could hit as soon as Wednesday.

— Ethics board: Cuomo must give back money from $5.1M book deal: The New York state Joint Commission on Public Ethics will require former Gov. Andrew Cuomo to forfeit the money he made from his $5.1 million book deal in 2020. The move comes a month after the commission revoked its authorization allowing Cuomo to profit from his memoir, “American Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic.” The book was published in October 2020.

— Report: Socialism attacks hurt Dems with Latino voters: A new post-mortem on the 2020 election results reveals that GOP attacks claiming Democrats embrace socialism helped fuel Donald Trump’s gains with Latino voters last year . More than 40 percent of Latino voters across the country expressed concern that Democrats are embracing socialism and leftist policies, according to a survey included in a report released today by Equis, a Democratic research firm. Among those who voted for Trump, more than 70 percent were concerned. And Latino voters said they are more concerned with Democrats moving to the left than with Republicans embracing fascist and anti-democratic politics.

— “We owe them action”: Biden honors Sandy Hook victims on 9th anniversary: Biden addressed the families of the victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting today , marking the tragedy’s nine-year anniversary by calling it “an unconscionable act of violence.” Biden, who was President Barack Obama’s vice president at the time of the shooting, led the Obama administration’s effort to enact tougher gun control laws in Sandy Hook’s wake. That effort was ultimately unsuccessful when legislation to impose tougher background checks on gun sales — a bill that had been significantly pared back amid fierce opposition — failed on the Senate floor.

— D.C. suing the Oath Keepers, Proud Boys for damage caused on Jan. 6: The attorney general of the District of Columbia is suing the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and 31 members of the far-right groups for participating in the mob that breached the Capitol on Jan. 6. It’s the first government-backed legal action against the groups whose members allegedly stormed the Capitol. Members of Congress and the Capitol Police have already filed similar suits in their personal capacities.

— Biden taps Thompson for full term as top housing regulator: Biden will nominate Sandra Thompson, currently the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to a full term at the regulator, the White House announced today . If confirmed, Thompson would be the country’s top housing regulator, with oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled companies that stand behind about half of the roughly $11 trillion residential mortgage market.

AROUND THE WORLD

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Stow Health Vaccination center in London, England.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Stow Health Vaccination center in London. | Jeremy Selwyn - WPA Pool/Getty Images

BORIS SCRAPES OUT A WIN — Boris Johnson suffered the biggest parliamentary rebellion of his premiership and had to rely on opposition support to pass plans for tighter coronavirus restrictionsEsther Webber writes.

Some 98 Conservative MPs voted against the U.K. leader’s policy that will see a Covid pass — comprising either proof of vaccination or a negative test — required for entry to venues including nightclubs. The rebellion — which came as the government tries to contain the spread of the Omicron Covid variant — effectively wipes out the 80-seat majority he won in 2019.

The measure passed thanks to the support of the opposition Labor Party, by 369 votes to 126. But the sheer scale of the rebellion reflects the mounting pressure the prime minister is facing from his own party over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News in the aftermath of the vote that the result reflects “the shattered authority of Boris Johnson.”

Conservative MP Geoffrey Clifton-Brown said a leadership challenge to Johnson next year has now “got to be on the cards.” The senior Tory told Sky News: “He’s got to realize that and he’s got to change.”

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

89 percent

The reduction of risk of hospitalization or death with Pfizer’s antiviral Covid-19 pill in high-risk patients who’d been experiencing symptoms for three days or fewer, according to final results from a trial of 2,246 adults the company released today. The results tracked with interim findings the company reported last month, which prompted it to petition the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization of the pill, called Paxlovid.

PARTING WORDS

OSLO GOES DRY — Norway will ban the serving of alcohol in bars and restaurants, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said , as part of new Covid-19 restrictions intended to stem the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant, Thibaul Spirlet writes.

There’s “no doubt the new variant changes the rules,” Gahr Støre told a news conference Monday, announcing the country’s fourth round of measures in two weeks. “That’s why we need to act fast and we need to act again.”

The government also announced stricter rules for schools and the closure of gyms and swimming pools to some users as well as speeding up its vaccination campaign.

“For many this will feel like a lockdown, if not of society then of their lives and of their livelihoods,” the PM added.

Norway has reported the largest outbreak of Omicron in continental Europe, with 958 cases confirmed, according to the daily bulletin of the EU’s disease control agency on Monday.

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Thursday, October 14, 2021

RSN: Bess Levin | Picture This: Jared Kushner Brandishing a Dagger and Two Swords

 


 

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Jared Kushner. (photo: Mandel Ngan/GQ)
Bess Levin | Picture This: Jared Kushner Brandishing a Dagger and Two Swords
Bess Levin, Vanity Fair
Levin writes: "Remember Jamal Khashoggi? The U.S. resident and Saudi dissident said to be kidnapped and dismembered via bone saw, reportedly on the order of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a grisly murder Donald Trump let the guy get away with even after Saudi Arabia admitted the killing was premeditated and the CIA separately concluded that MBS directed the whole thing?"

The Saudi royal family gifted the former first son-in-law thousands of dollars worth of sharp objects.

Remember Jamal Khashoggi? The U.S. resident and Saudi dissident said to be kidnapped and dismembered via bone saw, reportedly on the order of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a grisly murder Donald Trump let the guy get away with even after Saudi Arabia admitted the killing was premeditated and the CIA separately concluded that MBS directed the whole thing? And that Trump bragged to Bob Woodward that he’d “saved [the crown prince’s] ass,” adding, “I was able to get Congress to leave him alone”? And that, according to The New York Times, it was former first son-in-law Jared Kushner who urged Trump to “stand by” MBS, arguing that the outrage—about a man being dismembered—would simply blow over? According to a new report, it appears young Kushner was handsomely compensated for his loyalty!

In a Times story detailing the many gifts the Trump administration received from foreign governments, and an inspector general’s investigation into a missing $5,800 bottle of Japanese whiskey given to Mike Pompeo (which, per the Times, Pompeo said he never received), a 22-karat gold coin given to another State Department official, and allegations that “Mr. Trump’s political appointees walked off with gift bags worth thousands of dollars that were meant for foreign leaders at the Group of 7 summit planned for Camp David in 2020,” comes this fun detail:

In addition, the Trump administration never disclosed that Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and a top White House adviser, received two swords and a dagger from the Saudis, although he paid $47,920 for them along with three other gifts in February, after he left office.

Obviously, this raises more questions than it answers. Because the gifts were paid for, and Kushner presumably retained possession of them, what special display case does he keep them in? Does he show them off to visitors, saying, “These are from my buddy MBS, you know, the guy who had a man chopped into tiny pieces”? And maybe most importantly, how many times a week do you think he takes the swords and dagger out to play with them, and how many times has Ivanka had to take him to the emergency room for stitches despite having told him on numerous occasions, “Jared, these are not toys”? Inquiring minds would like to know.


READ MORE


Using a Bow and Arrow a Danish Citizen Kills 5 in NorwayThe police working in Kongsberg, Norway, on Thursday, one day after a man killed several people in the town. (photo: Terje Bendiksby/NTB/AP)

Using a Bow and Arrow a Danish Citizen Kills 5 in Norway
Jon Henley, Guardian UK
Henley writes: "A 37-year-old Danish citizen has been arrested after five people were killed and two others injured in an attack using a bow and arrows in the Norwegian town of Kongsberg, police said."

ALSO SEE: Norway Bow-and-Arrow Attack That Killed Five People
Appears to Be 'Terrorist Act,' Police Say


Police say suspect in his 30s lived in the town of Kongsberg, where the attacks took place


A 37-year-old Danish citizen has been arrested after five people were killed and two others injured in an attack using a bow and arrows in the Norwegian town of Kongsberg, police said.

The suspect lived in the town and was transported to the nearby town of Drammen on Wednesday night, the police said in a statement issued early on Thursday.

Police were interrogating the suspect and he was talking, his defence lawyer said. “He is cooperating and is giving detailed statements regarding this event,” his lawyer, Fredrik Neumann, told public broadcaster NRK.

Neumann said his client was “deeply affected” and would be remanded in custody later on Thursday. He declined to comment further beyond saying the suspect’s mother was Danish, but it was not known whether he had ever lived there.

Øyvind Aas, the police chief in Kongsberg, about 70km south-west of the capital, Oslo, told a press conference earlier on Wednesday night that the alleged attacker had been arrested and “according to our information, is the only person implicated”.

Aas said there had been “a confrontation” between officers and the assailant, but he did not elaborate. Two people were in intensive care, including an off-duty police officer.

Aas declined to comment on press reports that a police officer had been shot in the back. He said the attacks happened over “a large area” of the town and several crime scenes were involved.

The acting prime minister, Erna Solberg, described reports of the attack as “horrifying” and said it was too early to speculate on the man’s motive.

“I understand that many people are afraid, but it’s important to emphasise that the police are now in control,” she told a news conference.

The prime minister-designate, Jonas Gahr Støre, who is expected to take office on Thursday, called the assault “a cruel and brutal act” in comments to Norwegian news agency NTB.

The alleged attacker’s motive was not yet clear, Aas said, but police were not ruling out terrorism. “One person has performed these actions alone,” he said. “It is natural to consider whether it is an act of terrorism. But the man has not been questioned and it is too early to come to any conclusion.”

NRK said police in Kongsberg, a municipality of about 28,000 people, received reports at 6.13pm local time that a man was walking around the town centre firing a bow and arrow.

A woman who witnessed some of the attack, Hansine, told TV2 she had heard a disturbance, then saw a woman taking cover and “a man standing on the corner with arrows in a quiver on his shoulder and a bow in his hand”.

“Afterwards, I saw people running for their lives. One of them was a woman holding a child by the hand,” she said.

A “large number” of police, as well as helicopters, dogs and armed response teams secured the area soon afterwards, Aas said, and the suspect was arrested about 30 minutes later after a brief confrontation with officers.

The shooting appears to have started in or near a Coop store in the city centre where there were several casualties, Norwegian media reported, citing regional government officials who said details were “still very confused”.

A Coop spokesperson, Harald Kristiansen, told NRK there had been “a serious incident in our store” but no employees were among the injured. “We are providing assistance to our colleagues and helping police with their investigation,” he said.

“A lot of resources were sent from several places, including Oslo police district, the bomb squad, national police and emergency response teams,” Aas told journalists. “There is still a lot of police activity across the area. They are securing the various crime scenes … and have many witnesses to interview.”

A woman, who lived near the Coop store said she had heard alarms as she was walking home. “I saw a group of police officers, including one who held several arrows in his hand,” the woman, Marit Hoefle, told Aftenposten newspaper.

Kari Anne Sand, Kongsberg’s mayor, told VG newspaper the attack was “a tragedy for all those involved. I have no words”. Sand said a crisis team had been installed in a hotel to support those affected. “We are doing all we can,” she added. “Right now it is a chaotic situation and there are a lot of rumours.”

Shortly after the attack Norway’s national police directorate said it had ordered officers nationwide to carry firearms. Norwegian police are normally unarmed but officers have access to guns and rifles when needed.

“This is an extra precaution. The police have no indication so far that there is a change in the national threat level,” the directorate said in a statement.

READ MORE


Trump Says Republicans Won't Vote if the GOP Doesn't Repeat His Election LiesDonald Trump. (photo: Getty Images)

Trump Says Republicans Won't Vote if the GOP Doesn't Repeat His Election Lies
Igor Bobic, HuffPost
Bobic writes: "Donald Trump warned that Republican voters will stay home in the 2022 midterm election and the 2024 presidential election unless the GOP fully embraces the lie that Trump beat President Joe Biden in 2020."

Donald Trump warned that Republican voters will stay home in the 2022 midterm election and the 2024 presidential election unless the GOP fully embraces the lie that Trump beat President Joe Biden in 2020.

“If we don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020...Republicans will not be voting in ’22 or ’24,” Trump said in a statement on Wednesday. “It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do.”

The twice-impeached former president has routinely spouted debunked claims of election fraud in the months since leaving office, even after the violent Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Most elected Republicans have simply chosen to ignore him, dodging questions about the chaos Trump incited on Capitol Hill.

But Trump’s attempts to steer the entire party apparatus into questioning the integrity of U.S. election systems could cost Republicans at the ballot box. In Georgia, for example, Trump’s lies about fraud suppressed voter turnout among Republican voters and helped cost his party Georga’s two U.S. Senate seats, as well as GOP control of the Senate, according to Georgia’s Republican secretary of state.

Trump has already made substantial headway in endorsing candidates across the country who are willing to embrace his rhetoric about election fraud. A Trump-imposed litmus test on the validity of the 2020 election would solidify his grip on the party as he toys with the idea of running for president again. It would also create headaches for Republicans seeking to keep media attention on the Biden administration.

Already, some top Republican lawmakers are bending the knee. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, the No. 2 House GOP leader, for example, refused over the weekend to say the 2020 election result was legitimate.

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who is helping lead the Jan. 6 House select committee investigating the Capitol insurrection, criticized Scalise afterward. The Wyoming lawmaker is one of the last few remaining elected Republicans willing to speak out against Trump.

“Millions of Americans have been sold a fraud that the election was stolen. Republicans have a duty to tell the American people that this is not true,” Cheney tweeted. “Perpetuating the Big Lie is an attack on the core of our constitutional republic.”

The Democratic National Committee similarly called on GOP leaders in the House and Senate ― including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to rebut Trump’s lies about the election.

“[T]his is what happens when Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy bend over backwards to indulge his dangerous lies, failed leadership, and complete incompetence,” DNC spokesperson Ammar Moussa said in a statement. “Republicans can’t have it both ways — they can’t kiss Donald Trump’s ring and then also refuse to answer for his most egregious lies that led to the violent January 6 assault on the Capitol and continue to undermine our democracy.”

READ MORE


What Redistricting Looks Like in Every StateA sign calling for ending gerrymandering at a Fair Maps rally in Washington, DC, 2019. (photo: Sarah L. Voisin/WP/Getty Images)


What Redistricting Looks Like in Every State
Five Thirty Eight
Excerpt: "Four states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s: Oregon, Maine, Nebraska and, most recently, Indiana."

An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterms and beyond.

Four states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s: OregonMaineNebraska and, most recently, Indiana. The new maps in Maine, Nebraska and Indiana are only slightly different from the old ones, but Oregon Democrats were able to use their control of the redistricting process to draw a significantly more favorable map for the party. As a result, Democrats have gained two seats nationally from the redistricting process so far, but with Republicans in charge of redrawing many more congressional districts overall, that advantage is likely to be short-lived.

A few other states also appear to be close to finalizing their congressional maps. Colorado’s new independent commission has settled on a map to submit to the state Supreme Court; the map would add a competitive, slightly GOP-leaning district with the seat Colorado gained in reapportionment. And the Arkansas legislature just approved a map to send to the governor. (Both plans, though, still require final sign-off before they become official.) In addition, a map that would essentially lock in 24 Republican seats and 13 Democratic seats — leaving just one competitive district — has passed the state Senate in Texas. Though the map is heavily biased toward Republicans and Democrats have complained it does not create enough majority-minority districts, some version of it is likely to soon become law in the Lone Star State.

On the flip side, the Iowa state Senate voted to reject the first proposed map drawn by the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, sending it back to the drawing board. Iowa is one of a handful of states that have nonpartisan advisory redistricting commissions but where the ultimate redistricting authority still lies with politicians. Indeed, one of the biggest questions of this redistricting cycle is whether those politicians will ignore their commissions and draw their own maps. Similar advisory commissions in Maryland and New York have released proposed maps as well, but they are also expected to get the thumbs down.

Visit FiveThirtyEight for current tracker listings!


READ MORE


The Global Supply Chain Nightmare Is About to Get WorseContainer vessels are anchored outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on Wednesday as they wait to unload their cargo. (photo: Carolyn Cole/LA Times)

The Global Supply Chain Nightmare Is About to Get Worse
Matt Egan, CNN
Egan writes: "Computer chip shortages. Epic port congestion. And a serious lack of truck drivers. The world's delicate supply chains are under extreme stress."

Computer chip shortages. Epic port congestion. And a serious lack of truck drivers. The world's delicate supply chains are under extreme stress.

The supply chain nightmare is jacking up prices for consumers and slowing the global economic recovery. Unfortunately, Moody's Analytics warns supply chain disruptions "will get worse before they get better."

"As the global economic recovery continues to gather steam, what is increasingly apparent is how it will be stymied by supply-chain disruptions that are now showing up at every corner," Moody's wrote in a Monday report.

Indeed, the IMF downgraded its 2021 US growth forecast on Tuesday by one percentage point, the most for any G7 economy. The IMF cited supply chain disruptions and weakening consumption — which itself has been partially driven by supply chain bottlenecks such as a lack of new cars amid the computer chip shortage.

"Border controls and mobility restrictions, unavailability of a global vaccine pass, and pent-up demand from being stuck at home have combined for a perfect storm where global production will be hampered because deliveries are not made in time, costs and prices will rise and GDP growth worldwide will not be as robust as a result," Moody's wrote in the report.

Moody's said the "weakest link" may be the shortage of truck drivers — an issue that has contributed to congestion at ports and caused gas stations in the United Kingdom to run dry. Unfortunately, Moody's warned there are "dark clouds ahead" because several factors make overcoming the supply constraints particularly challenging.

First, the firm pointed to differences in how countries are fighting Covid, with China aiming for zero cases while the United States is "more willing to live with Covid-19 as an endemic disease."

"This presents a serious challenge to harmonizing the rules and regulations by which transport workers move in and out of ports and hubs around the world," the analysts wrote.

Secondly, Moody's cited the lack of a "concerted global effort to ensure the smooth operation" of the worldwide logistics and transportation network.

Others are much more optimistic on the supply chain outlook.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that these supply chain hiccups will fade quickly.

"This will not be an issue next year at all," Dimon said during a conference held by the Institute of International Finance, CNBC reported. "This is the worst part of it. I think great market systems will adjust for it like companies have."

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Beirut Port Blast: Gunfire Erupts at Protest Against Judge Leading ProbeThe Lebanese army evacuated people from the Tayouneh-Badaro area as the gunfire erupted. (photo: Reuters)

Beirut Port Blast: Gunfire Erupts at Protest Against Judge Leading Probe
BBC News
Excerpt: "Heavy gunfire erupted as supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal movements demanded Judge Tarek Bitar's removal."

Five people have been shot dead at a protest in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, against the judge investigating last year's devastating port explosion.

Heavy gunfire erupted as supporters of the Hezbollah and Amal movements demanded Judge Tarek Bitar's removal.

They said snipers on rooftops attacked them to drag the country into strife.

Huge tension surrounds the probe into the port blast, with Hezbollah accusing the judge of unfairly singling out allied former government ministers.

What began as a protest against Judge Bitar outside the Palace of Justice, with chanting and marching, escalated significantly, reports the BBC's Anna Foster in Beirut.

Heavy, rolling gunfire erupted in the streets as the crowd passed through a roundabout in the central Tayouneh-Badaro area.

Our correspondent says there were very loud explosions as the Lebanese army moved into position and tried to work out where the shots were coming from. But, she adds, there was such a level of confusion that nobody knew for sure who was firing at whom.

Hospital and military sources said the dead included two men who were shot in the head and the chest, as well as a woman who was hit by a stray bullet while inside her home.

Bullets also landed near a local school, forcing students to duck for cover under their desks.

Hezbollah and Amal said in a joint statement that the protesters were targeted by "snipers positioned on the roofs of buildings".

"This attack by armed and organised groups aims to drag the country into a deliberate strife, the responsibility of which must be borne by the instigators and the parties that hide behind the blood of the victims and martyrs of the port in order to achieve malicious political gains," they added.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on everyone to "calm down and not be drawn into sedition for any reason whatsoever".

The army said it had deployed troops to restore calm and search for the assailants, and warned that they would "shoot at any gunman on the roads and at anyone who shoots from any direction".

Earlier on Thursday, a court dismissed a legal complaint brought by two of the former ministers whom Judge Bitar has sought to question in connection with the port explosion.

Relatives of the victims and activists had condemned the complaint, which caused the investigation to be suspended for the second time in three weeks.

No-one has been held accountable for the August 2020 disaster, in which killed 219 people were killed and 7,000 others were wounded.

A fire triggered the detonation of 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, a combustible chemical widely used as agricultural fertiliser, that had been stored unsafely in a port warehouse for almost six years.

Senior officials were aware of the material's existence and the danger it posed but failed to secure, remove or destroy it.

Victims' families have expressed their support for Judge Bitar and alleged that the country's political leadership is trying to shield itself from scrutiny.


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Feral Hogs Spotted in Canada National Park for First TimeThe pigs were introduced to the Canadian Prairies in the 1990s by farmers, but have proved impossible to control once they escape the confines of a farm. (photo: Rebecca Santana/AP)


Feral Hogs Spotted in Canada National Park for First Time
Leyland Cecco, Guardian UK
Cecco writes: "Feral hogs have been spotted in a Canadian national park for the first time, raising fears that the wild pigs - which in recent years have rampaged across North America - will cause damage to sensitive ecosystems."

Wild pigs seen in Alberta’s Elk Island national park, raising fears they will cause damage to sensitive ecosystems

Feral hogs have been spotted in a Canadian national park for the first time, raising fears that the wild pigs – which in recent years have rampaged across North America – will cause damage to sensitive ecosystems.

Parks Canada has confirmed that wild pigs – a hybrid of domestic pigs and European wild boar – have been spotted in Alberta’s Elk Island national park.

“Public sightings and video sightings provided by landowners confirm that there is at least one sounder [a sow and piglets] in the region that is known to periodically come into the park,” a Parks Canada spokesperson, Janelle Verbruggen, told the Canadian Press.

Elk Island, a fenced-in park 40km (25 miles) east of Edmonton, is home to one of the country’s largest wild bison herds.

The pigs – which can weigh more than 300lb and move in groups called “sounders” – are voracious eaters of roots, bulbs, tubers, bird eggs and small amphibians. They destroy wetlands and contaminate water sources.

“Wild pigs are the worst invasive wild mammal on the planet,” said Ryan Brook, head of the University of Saskatchewan’s Canadian Wild Pig Research Project. “They’re a global menace.”

In Elk Island, where bison herds coexist with elk and deer, Brook said the hogs could upend the delicate balance of the park. Both the grasses the ungulates graze on and the wetlands used by bison, could be destroyed.

“They just rip through the ground, pulling up insect larvae and roots. They just tear everything apart so that it has a harder time growing back. They get into wetlands and they wallow around and they contaminate the water. They just do tremendous destruction,” he said.

The US Department of Agriculture estimates feral hogs cause more than $1.5bn in damage nationwide every year.

Verbruggen said the Alberta government is working with Parks Canada to prevent the hogs from establishing a permanent presence in the area.

The pigs were introduced to Canada’s Prairies in the 1990s by farmers, but have proved impossible to control once they escape the confines of a farm.

Hogs are “extremely smart and elusive”, according to the the Canadian Wild Pig Research Project.

Ryan Brook, who heads up the project at the University of Saskatchewan, told the Canadian Press that while Elk Island is the first to have feral pigs, he suspects Prince Albert national park in Saskatchewan will probably be next.

Experts say trapping is the best method to deal with the hogs – but an entire sounder must be trapped at once, or else the pigs will startle easily and disperse quickly.

While hunting has become an increasingly popular option in the United States – and one that went viral on social media after one farmer asked how he should handle “30-50 feral hogs” suddenly appearing on his property – experts say firearms spook the animals and often make the problem worse.

“While we fully support hunters and hunting, we also acknowledge that nowhere on Earth has hunting ever successfully controlled wild pig populations,” wrote Brook.


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