POLITICO NIGHTLY: The Great Resignation goes to work

 

BY RENUKA RAYASAM Presented by A “Now Hiring” sign posted at a 7-Eleven store in Los Angeles. | Mario Tama/Getty Images IT’S NOT JUST QUITTING TIME — Headlines about the Great Resignation have conjured images of people leaving jobs en masse, destroying printers “Office Space” style on their way out the door with government checks that they use to vacation in Mexico. It’s true that a record number of people have quit their job this year: About 4 million people have done so every month since April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But it’s a fantasy that these Americans have given up on work in 2021. More than 6 million people a month are being hired right now, too. “The quits are people who are quitting their job to take another job,” Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank and a former Labor Department economist in the Obama administration, told Nightly. Back in February 2020, before we knew we were about to be hit with business and school closures, the labor force participation rate — the proportion of people working and looking for work — was 63.3 percent, according to the BLS. By April 2020, after tens of millions of Americans were fired or quit, it plummeted to 60.2 percent. During the summer, as shutdown orders lifted and businesses reopened, the rate crept back up, reaching 61.7 percent in Aug. 2020. And that’s where it’s more or less been since then: November 2021’s rate was 61.8 percent. That missing 1.6 percent is a lot of people — about 5 million. Many of them are workers, largely women, who left their jobs back at the very start of the pandemic because they were fired or because they didn’t want to get Covid or because they had to care for a child or other family member. And they have yet to come back. But they’re also not the people who are quitting right now. It’s hard to know what, if anything, will get this group back to work. Employers weren’t flooded with new resumes when enhanced unemployment benefits ended, nor when schools reopened. Cheaper child care options or paid leave policies could convince more people to start looking for work, Shierholz said. Women’s employment began to catch up in March of this year, but dropped after that even though a worker shortage helped people negotiate better benefits like paid leave and remote work, Heritage Foundation economist Rachel Greszler told POLITICO’s labor reporter Eleanor Mueller. And some people are never coming back. In addition to retirees, about 200,000 people between the ages of 18 and 64 have died from Covid. Immigration is also lower now than it was before the pandemic, according to a Brookings analysis of the labor market. Employers — and customers — may have to get used to an overall smaller workforce, Eleanor said. The Great Resignation isn’t about white-collar burnout or lazy Americans. It’s about workers, mostly those who work in restaurants, hotels and the rest of the hospitality sector, leaving their jobs for better or higher-paying ones. Employers are having to work harder to entice staff. The industry’s wages have risen 22 percent since March. If we’re living in “Office Space,” the Great Resigners aren’t the three guys who destroyed their printer. They’re more like Jennifer Aniston’s Joanna, a server who quits her job at Chotchkie’s to work in another restaurant because it has less flair and better uniforms. Shierholz doesn’t believe these lower-paying jobs will see continued strong wage growth. Eventually the pandemic will end and things will start to level off. But Eleanor told Nightly that she does sense a permanent change in labor markets. Kellogg workers just ended a nearly three-month strike that saw some consumers boycotting the company’s products. She said she plans to spend the next year reporting on this pandemic-driven shift in worker power. For this year at least, she said, “workers are calling the shots.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @RenuRayasam. A programming note: Nightly won’t publish from Friday, Dec. 24 to Friday, Dec. 31. But don’t fret: We’ll be back and better than ever on Monday, Jan. 3.   A message from Mastercard: Holiday cheer is in the air and shoppers are returning to stores in force, including millions of small businesses across America. Mastercard SpendingPulse data shows that total retail sales are up nearly 30% compared to last year. By empowering small businesses with digital payment solutions, data insights and the tools to operate more efficiently, Mastercard is committed to helping them during this holiday season, and thrive in the future.   WHAT'D I MISS? — White House extends student loan payment freeze: The Biden administration announced today it would extend the pause on federal student loan payments through May 1 . A statement from Biden announcing the extension pointed directly to the pandemic and the economy as reasons for the pause. “[W]e know that millions of student loan borrowers are still coping with the impacts of the pandemic and need some more time before resuming payments. This is an issue Vice President Harris has been closely focused on, and one we both care deeply about,” the statement read. — FDA authorizes Pfizer’s Covid-19 pill: The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer’s antiviral Covid-19 pill today for individuals 12 and older who test positive and are at high risk of developing a severe case of the virus. The announcement marks a significant development in the pandemic response, allowing Americans who contract Covid-19 to take a pill at home to prevent hospitalization and death. — Newsom, unions commit to keeping ‘our classrooms open’: Gov. Gavin Newsom today pledged to keep California schools open in a statement he issued with the state’s influential teachers unions the day after Biden said K-12 classrooms must not close. Their promise comes as the Omicron variant sweeps the U.S., prompting fresh anxieties among parents that schools might start closing again. California, home to more than 12 percent of the nation’s students, kept its classrooms closed long after they opened in other states as teachers unions pushed to prolong distance learning.   POLITICO TECH AT CES 2022 - We are bringing a special edition of the POLITICO Tech newsletter to CES 2022. Written by Alexandra Levine and John Hendel, the newsletter will take you inside the most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered together in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the Summit.     — Democrats prevail in New Jersey redistricting with map that could sacrifice Malinowski: New Jersey Democrats prevailed today in the state’s congressional redistricting process, convincing a tiebreaker to side with their proposed map over the one submitted by Republicans . Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously vulnerable Democratic incumbents. — Cruz says he’s well-positioned for 2024: Sen. Ted Cruz today argued he is particularly well positioned to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, citing his second-place finish behind then-candidate Donald Trump in the party’s 2016 primary. The remarks from Cruz (R-Texas) came in an interview with The Truth Gazette, a conservative news service operated by 15-year-old Brilyn Hollyhand. Asked by Hollyhand whether he would consider launching another bid for the White House, Cruz responded: “Absolutely. In a heartbeat.”       AROUND THE WORLD WHO SOUNDS 2022 NOTE OF HOPE — The global pandemic should come to an end next year , according to officials at the World Health Organization. “2022 must be the end of the Covid-19 pandemic,” said WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, speaking today at the organization’s last planned briefing of the year on the coronavirus, Helen Collis writes. Tedros said he believed the pandemic will end next year because, two years into the situation, “we know the virus very well and we have all the tools [to fight it].” He said WHO projections show that vaccine supplies should be sufficient to vaccinate the entire global adult population and to give boosters to high-risk populations by the first quarter of 2022.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     NIGHTLY NUMBER $3.8 million The amount spent in the first year of operations of special counsel John Durham’s inquiry into the origins of the investigation into ties between Russia and the 2016 Trump presidential campaign . That includes roughly more than $2.3 million between April 1 and Sept. 30. Of that, nearly $1.9 million was directly related to the team’s investigation and approximately $471,000 was spent by other parts of the Justice Department in connection to Durham’s work. PARTING WORDS Roger Stone, a former adviser and confidante to former President Donald Trump, gets into his vehicle in front of the Thomas P. O'Neill Jr. Federal Building after his deposition before the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 Attack in Washington. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images FOR THOSE LAST MINUTE CHRISTMAS SHOPPERS — Roger Stone, a longtime associate of Donald Trump, is auctioning off a copy of a 1990s magazine cover he says is signed by the former president as part of a larger fundraising campaign to pay for his legal defenses and medical bills, Alex Thompson writes. “To Roger YOU ARE THE GREATEST!,” reads a Trump note in his distinct scrawl on the cover of a now-defunct trade publication: Real Estate New York. If the bid exceeds $20,000 dollars, the bidder gets the physical version of the magazine along with “one of only one” digital copy, which Stone marketed as an NFT, or a non-fungible token. NFT’s, which are essentially non-interchangeable digital tokens of a visual item, have shaken up the art world this past year with many being sold for millions. Former first lady Melania Trump recently announced that she too was entering the industry. In an email, Stone said he believed Trump signed the magazine in 1999 and that it was “indeed real.” While Real Estate New York was a magazine, POLITICO was unable to confirm when or if Trump graced the cover. As of mid-day today, there were zero bids for Stone’s item. The NFT is part of a larger auction this past week for the Stone family sponsored by Stone’s friend Pete Santilli, a right-wing internet talk show host. They auctioned off two copies of a Stone-signed 1968 Richard Nixon pamphlet, which went for $400 and $300 respectively, along with a “rare Trump/Melania” poster depicting them as Uncle Sam and Lady Liberty ($550).   A message from Mastercard: What do you do when your dreams don’t go according to plan? That’s what many small business owners who depended on foot traffic wondered last year when the pandemic suddenly forced them to close their doors and change their business models. Small businesses are the backbone of our economy, serving as the lifeline through which goods, services and livelihoods flow. And, when the pandemic hit, Mastercard solutions, insights and tools helped entrepreneurs evolve to succeed in the new digital economy. Now, as shoppers return to small businesses this holiday season, Mastercard is helping entrepreneurs prepare for the future.     Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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