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Thursday, December 2, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The certainly uncertain future of Roe

 



 
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BY RENUKA RAYASAM

Presented by the Connected Commerce Council

Demonstrators gather in front of the U.S. Supreme Court as the justices hear arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health.

Demonstrators gather in front of the U.S. Supreme Court as the justices hear arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

A 50-YEAR ARGUMENT — There are a handful of Supreme Court moments that are history making. This morning’s oral arguments on Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban seems likely to join them.

A majority of justices seemed to signal they were willing to overturn Roe v. Wade, along with nearly five decades of court predecent on abortion rights. In 1973’s Roe and 1992’s Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the court had ruled that a fetus is viable at 24 weeks and said that abortion restrictions before then cannot place an undue burden on a pregnant patient. If the court rules otherwise, in a decision likely to come next summer, in the case known as Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, it could have consequences beyond just the future of abortion rights in the U.S., University of Texas law professor Stephen Vladeck told Nightly.

“The revealing exchange was when Justice Brett Kavanaugh ticked off all of these cases, where the implication was that these are cases that progressives think are good overrulings of precedent, almost as a rhetorical device,” Vladeck said.

Nightly reached out to Vladeck, a constitutional law scholar at the University of Texas School of Law, to talk about what we learned from today’s oral arguments about how the justices might rule. This conversation has been edited.

What do you think a majority opinion could look like?

The most important thing that I didn’t hear today was a lot of support for the idea that there is some intermediate position between Casey and an undue burden test, for pre-viability restrictions, and getting rid of Casey altogether. A compromise would be moving the viability line and having the undue burden test apply to state laws up until that point. Justice John Roberts tried a couple of times to float such a possibility, but I didn’t hear a lot of takers from his right.

I do think today’s justices see precedent and stare decisis simply as something they have to account for but not independent justification for a holding.

What did we learn today about the court’s concern about being seen as overly political?

This is a different court than we have seen in our lifetimes. This is a court that is not remotely worried about the political branches. I don’t think that’s wrong. But it’s an interesting reflection on where we are. Historically one of the constraints on the court handing down decisions that provoke massive reactions has been the possibility that there would be a reaction.

What we heard today is the court is not especially worried about the political branches at the moment and not worried about being perceived as overreaching by as much as half of the population.

How would overturning Roe affect other decisions that the court has said apply across the U.S.?

Justice Kavanaugh spent a lot of time today extolling the virtues of what he called “scrupulously neutral constitutional rules” that leave matters to the states.

After the eradication of slavery, one of the real achievements of the post-Civil War amendments was actually to hold states to uniform federal constitutional standards. We seem to be on the precipice of real retreat from that principle.

Is there a scenario in which a future court reinstates Roe?

That further perpetuates a narrative that the court is a little more than a political institution. Even if the sort of post-Roe status quo is restored, the damage to the court’s legitimacy isn’t.

It has been less time since Roe than since the last time the majority of the justices have been appointed by Democratic presidents. Roe was decided in 1973. The last day there was a majority of justices appointed by Democratic presidents was May 14, 1969. I don’t know that is something that we should look forward to any time soon.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @RenuRayasam.

 

A message from the Connected Commerce Council:

An estimated 11 million small businesses (37%) would have closed without access to digital tools. Why is Congress proposing changes that would dismantle small businesses’ digital safety net? Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Omicron variant detected in California: The individual who contracted the variant was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms after traveling to South Africa and returning home Nov. 22, the CDC said in a press statement. The individual tested positive Nov. 29. Health authorities in California have reached out to all close contacts of the individual in question, who is in self-quarantine, and all of them have tested negative.

— Republicans feud over prospect of vaccine shutdown: Several Senate Republicans are panning their colleagues’ strategy of forcing a shutdown fight over President Joe Biden’s vaccine mandates, hoping they back off before the midnight Friday deadline. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and a clutch of other Republicans are floating the idea of blocking a quick government spending vote until Democrats and Biden agree to bar funds for the mandates in the funding bill.

Rep. Peter DeFazio participates in a House Transportation Subcommittee hearing.

Rep. Peter DeFazio participates in a House Transportation Subcommittee hearing. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

— Peter DeFazio will retire from Congress in latest blow to Democrats: The Oregon firebrand who leads the House’s transportation committee will step down after 36 years in Congress, spelling more bad news for Democrats in 2022 and taking with him a massive amount of institutional and technical knowledge on infrastructure. The move comes on the heels of a frustrating few years, in which DeFazio’s dreams of an ambitious, environmentally focused overhaul of the nation’s highway and transit program were sidelined for a major infrastructure bill that went only as far as Republicans in the Senate would agree to go.

— McCarthy tries to keep order within House GOP as Dems debate Boebert punishment: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is trying to quietly extinguish various internal fires as an Islamophobia controversy consumes his GOP conference. The California Republican has sought to handle internal strife privately in a bid to avoid alienating any of his members as he looks to both retake the majority and win the speaker’s gavel next Congress. Rather than putting fellow Republicans on blast, McCarthy has low-key lobbied individuals — and the conference as a whole — to stay on message.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

— Stacey Abrams announces long-anticipated Georgia rematch: Democrat Stacey Abrams launched a bid for Georgia governor today, kicking off one of the most anticipated campaigns of the 2022 midterms . Abrams is seeking a rematch with Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who narrowly defeated her in 2018 in an open-seat race. Her launch video does not mention Kemp by name.

— Michigan teen charged in Oxford High School shooting: A 15-year-old boy was charged with murder and terrorism for a shooting that killed four fellow students and injured others at a Michigan high school , authorities said today, revealing that his parents were summoned just a few hours before the bloodshed. No motive was offered by Oakland County authorities, a day after violence at Oxford High School, roughly 30 miles north of Detroit. But prosecutor Karen McDonald said the shooting was premeditated, based on a “mountain of digital evidence” collected by police.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

MEHR RESTRICTIONS IN GERMANY — The outgoing German government and the leaders of the country’s 16 states are planning to tighten pandemic rules, according to a draft document seen by POLITICO, Laurenz Gehrke writes.

According to the plan, which is set to be adopted Thursday, only those fully vaccinated and those who have recovered from Covid-19 will have access to venues such as theaters, cinemas and restaurants, which may ask guests to show a negative test if they see fit. Moreover, private gatherings that include unvaccinated people or people who haven’t recently recovered from Covid-19 can no longer exceed a maximum of two individuals from a different household.

Germany continues to grapple with its fourth wave of coronavirus cases that has already overwhelmed hospital intensive care units in some regions and forced patients to be transferred out for treatment. Today, health authorities reported 67,186 new infections and 446 deaths from Covid-19.

Scientists have urged stricter restrictions for weeks, but decision-making in Berlin has been hampered because Germany is between governments. That has left lame-duck Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose conservatives lost a September general election, stuck in an awkward “cohabitation” with her current finance minister and prospective successor, Olaf Scholz, who is expected to be confirmed in office next week as the head of a center-left coalition.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

$5.1 million

The amount of money Labor Secretary Marty Walsh has in his campaign account, left over from his Boston mayoral reelection campaign, which he dropped out of to join the Biden administration. Walsh is weighing whether to return home to Massachusetts and run for governor next year, according to two sources with knowledge of his deliberations, after Republican Gov. Charlie Baker announced he won’t seek reelection next year.

PARTING WORDS

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a meeting of the National Space Council meeting at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a meeting of the National Space Council meeting at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

NEW INTERSTELLAR RULES OF THE ROAD? Vice President Kamala Harris said today that Russia’s “irresponsible act” last month of blowing up one of its satellites demands a more robust global effort to adopt rules of behavior in orbit to protect national security and defend growing commerce, Bryan Bender writes.

“By blasting debris across space, this irresponsible act endangered the satellites of other nations, as well as astronauts in the International Space Station,” Harris said in convening the inaugural meeting of the National Space Council under her leadership.

“We must demand responsibility from all space-faring nations,” she added. “We must expand rules and norms on safety and security, on transparency and cooperation, to include military, commercial and civil space activity.”

Calls have grown for enhancing the security of space systems following the Russian action, which created thousands of pieces of debris that pose new hazards in an increasingly congested low-Earth orbit.

 

A message from the Connected Commerce Council:

Digitally enabled small businesses saw 50% more revenue during the pandemic than businesses that did not use digital tools. Now, Congress is considering legislation that could hurt the digital economy – and put small businesses at risk. Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/

 


 

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