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Saturday, December 4, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Biden’s Omicron dilemma

 


 
POLITICO Nightly logo

BY JOANNE KENEN

Presented by the Connected Commerce Council

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the November jobs report in the State Dining Room of the White House.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the November jobs report in the State Dining Room of the White House. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

TRUTH AND CONSEQUENCES  The basic tenets of public health communication are to plan for the worst (although it’s OK to hope for the best) and to always tell the truth — including clarity about what you don’t know.

That’s true now amid the uncertainty of Omicron. It was true two years ago, when Covid-19 first emerged. And it was true a century ago during the 1918 flu pandemic; in fact, that’s the main takeaway from John Barry’s definitive book, “The Great Influenza.”

“Whether a politician saw an advantage and knowingly did something at best unproductive or whether he or she acted out of incompetence or fear, the human factor, the political leadership factor, is the weakness in any plan, in every plan,” he wrote at the end of 460-plus pages.

“Those in authority must retain the public’s trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one,” he concluded.

But when the worst doesn’t ensue, it can create a “Boy Who Cries Wolf” kind of phenomenon, making at least some segment of the population less likely to heed the warnings next time. (Shore-dwellers who dismiss hurricane evacuation warnings being Exhibit A.)

And in our own societal moment of extreme partisanship, suspicion and distrust, what some of us may see as a “Thank God it wasn’t so bad” moment, others see as yet another reason to lose confidence in expertise, in government, in science itself. They perceive themselves not as having been warned, but as having been lied to.

So with Omicron’s emergence in the U.S., how can the Biden administration practice those Golden Rules of pandemic communication without sowing even more division and distrust?

“That’s a problem — and that’s a good question,” Barry told me this week.

The 1918 flu (known as the “Spanish” flu even though it probably began in rural Kansas) coincided with the U.S. mobilization for World War I. The mass movement of troops transported the virus across the country and across the globe. The lethal new version of the influenza virus would kill even more people than trench warfare and mustard gas did.

The coronavirus emerged in China, at the early stage of a U.S. presidential campaign. Scientists confronting a virus called “novel” for a reason didn’t quite know what it would do at first.

As they gained insight they didn’t always communicate crisply or consistently. For months, we coated the world with bleach and hand sanitizer when we should have been focusing on ventilation.

Unlike its predecessor, the Biden administration never sugar-coated the danger, but it too had communication missteps, particularly around school openings and boosters.

We have more tools against the coronavirus now: vaccines, new drugs, greater knowledge of the enemy. And science should have many more answers about Omicron within weeks — particularly about how well the vaccines will protect against it. In the meantime, public health communication should be built on what Barry called an infrastructure of uncertainty.

“Explain from the beginning what you don’t know,” he told Nightly. “Create an infrastructure of what you don’t know.”

If Omicron does turn out to be the worst case, or at least a very bad case, Barry wonders if it will mean the Covid deniers can no longer deny. Rallying the country around a war and underplaying the 1918 virus, as national leaders did then, was a devastatingly poor choice. But we can at least comprehend what they were thinking, even if they were appallingly wrong. The current politicization of vaccines, of masks, of the illness itself “continues to astound me,” Barry said.

Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association, is a little more confident than Barry that the public can come to understand the nature of changing forecasts and science’s moments of uncertainty.

“At the end of the day — most people are rational,” he said. “Tell them what you know. Tell them the information changed.

“Some will believe you. Some won’t. But people over time remember that you told them the truth.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author on Twitter at @JoanneKenen.

 

A message from the Connected Commerce Council:

An estimated 11 million small businesses (37%) would have closed without access to digital tools. Why is Congress proposing changes that would dismantle small businesses’ digital safety net? Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Virginia GOP completes sweep of elections with state House win: A three-judge panel overseeing a recount in a close Virginia Beach state House race upheld the Republican candidate’s victory today, a decision that also reaffirms the GOP’s takeover of the chamber and completes the party’s sweep of last month’s elections. Republicans also claimed the statewide offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general in the Nov. 2 election. Those wins were a dramatic turnaround in a state where the GOP had not won a statewide race since 2009.

— Appeals court mulls suit against Trump over rape denial: A federal appeals court panel debated today whether former President Donald Trump strayed beyond his presidential duties in his aggressive response to a New York writer’s claim that he raped her in a department store dressing room several decades ago. The central issue is whether Trump’s responses to E. Jean Carroll were so extreme that he abrogated the immunity that typically applies to work-related statements by federal employees.

A Now Hiring sign hangs at a Tire Kingdom store in Miami.

A Now Hiring sign hangs at a Tire Kingdom store in Miami. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

— U.S. employers added a sluggish 210,000 jobs in November: America’s employers slowed the pace of their hiring in November, adding 210,000 jobs, the fewest in nearly a year. Today’s report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2 percent from 4.6 percent. That is a historically low level though still above the pre-pandemic jobless rate of 3.5 percent.

— Eastman takes the Fifth with Jan. 6 committee: John Eastman, the attorney who helped Trump pressure then-Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election, has asserted his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, according to a letter he delivered to the Jan. 6 committee explaining his decision not to testify. “Dr. Eastman hereby asserts his Fifth Amendment right not to be a witness against himself in response to your subpoena,” his attorney, Charles Burnham, wrote in a letter to Chair Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) dated Dec. 1.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

— Suspect’s parents charged in Michigan school shooting: A prosecutor in Michigan filed involuntary manslaughter charges today against the parents of a boy who is accused of killing four students at Oxford High School , after saying earlier that their actions went “far beyond negligence.” Jennifer and James Crumbley were charged with four counts of involuntary manslaughter. Under Michigan law, an involuntary manslaughter charge can be pursued if prosecutors believe someone contributed to a situation where harm or death was high. If convicted, they could face up to 15 years in prison.

— Top National Guard officer tests positive for Covid: Gen. Dan Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau, tested positive for Covid-19 this week and is now isolating while working remotely, a bureau spokesperson said today. “All other members of the National Guard Bureau staff are continuing with their duties under the existing Covid protocols, and all continue to be tested, as required,” the spokesperson added in a statement.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

WAITING FOR BRUSSELS — Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen lambasted her Republican colleagues for blocking the confirmation of Biden’s EU ambassador nomineeDavid M. Herszenhorn writes.

In a fiery floor speech, Shaheen said the Republicans were crippling U.S. foreign policy and playing into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin by blocking the nomination of Mark Gitenstein, Biden’s pick for the EU post, along with more than 50 others diplomatic nominations.

Gitenstein, a close friend of the president and longtime aide to Biden when he served in the Senate, is a lawyer and was previously U.S. ambassador to Romania during the Obama administration. Shaheen complained that Republicans had no justification for blocking Gitenstein’s confirmation given his qualifications.

Some Republican senators have said they are delaying confirmation of Biden’s nominees in part to convey their unhappiness that Biden has not been tougher in opposing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany. But Shaheen, noting her own personal opposition to Nord Stream 2, said the Republicans were actually undermining U.S. foreign policy, including potential efforts to convince the new German government to block regulatory approval needed for the pipeline to begin operating.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

3

The number of Omicron cases discovered in Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan announced today, marking the first cases of the new variant in the greater Washington area.

PUNCHLINES

D.C.’S REINDEER GAMES — The holidays are upon the nation’s capital, and Matt Wuerker is here to spread cheer with his latest Weekend Wrap of new political satire and cartoons , on topics including the advance of the Omicron variant, the backlash against MTG and Lauren Boebert, and the abortion arguments at the Supreme Court.

Matt Wuerker in the Punchlines' Weekend Wrap

PARTING WORDS

‘THINGS WE WOULD NOT WANT TO DEAL WITH’ — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said today the ugly infighting between GOP members following anti-Muslim remarks by a firebrand freshman are headaches that distract from Republicans’ efforts to retake the majority, Olivia Beavers and Nicholas Wu write in Congress Minutes.

The California Republican, publicly addressing the internal drama for the first time during his weekly press conference, was asked about why he hasn’t been more forceful in condemning Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) for her Islamophobic comments directed at Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). McCarthy broadly argued that everyone is welcome in their party and that Boebert has sought to make amends.

“It’s things we would not want to deal with,” McCarthy said, adding that the “American people want to focus on stopping inflation, gas prices, and others. … This party is for anyone and everyone who craves freedom and supports religious liberty.”

McCarthy said not only did he call Boebert after her “jihad squad” and other remarks went viral in a video, but that Boebert also apologized publicly — in which she specifically tailored her apology to the broader Muslim community — and to Omar herself privately. “When it came forward, we talked. She apologized publicly. She apologized personally. I contacted Steny Hoyer,” he added.

 

A message from the Connected Commerce Council:

Digitally enabled small businesses saw 50% more revenue during the pandemic than businesses that did not use digital tools. Now, Congress is considering legislation that could hurt the digital economy – and put small businesses at risk. Learn more: https://connectedcouncil.org/

 


 

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