POLITICO NIGHTLY: Dems on the verge of a trial separation

 

BY ELANA SCHOR With help from Renuka Rayasam Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) steps away from the lectern after talking to reporters at the U.S. Capitol. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO — It’s the arranged marriage that promises to ruin Democrats’ year. But nearly three months ago, the Senate majority leader described the match in glowing terms. Centrists and liberals “need each other,” Chuck Schumer told our reporters back in August. “The moderates couldn't pass a bipartisan bill without the more progressive wing of our caucus,” Schumer said, referring to the $550 billion infrastructure bill that’s idling in the House after its Senate passage. “And the progressives couldn’t get a big, bold bill without the moderates,” Schumer added. That “bold bill” is the roughly $1.75 trillion social spending framework that could get a House vote as soon as this week. Occasionally shorthanded as the “two-track strategy,” what Schumer described was the bet that Democratic leaders have repeatedly raised in order to advance their and the president’s agenda: Get progressives to back an infrastructure bill shaped with GOP input (i.e. not as liberal as they’d like) and, in exchange, get centrists to back a party-line social spending bill shaped with no GOP input (i.e. too liberal for their tastes). This strategy likely would have worked a lot better had both bills been ready for action at the same time. But as it stands, the infrastructure measure is mired in the House awaiting an elusive consensus on the social spending measure. And the longer that both bills sit in the House, the more those centrist and liberal wings forget why they got engaged in the first place. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) today bluntly told the House that “it’s time to pass” the infrastructure bill. Days after they balked at exactly that vote, progressives now sound ready to heed his instructions — even as the social spending bill they wanted to wait for is no closer to quick passage than it was last week. Before today, progressives, as much as Schumer, were insistent on sticking to the two-track strategy. Both party leaders and the left seemed to have decided that the only way to lock in centrist votes for their social spending vision was to hold up the infrastructure bill at the altar in the House, awaiting its promised legislative spouse. But the nuptials may have finally been called off, as Democratic confidence that weeks of delay on infrastructure would help pass the social spending framework looks increasingly misplaced. Manchin referred to the bipartisan Senate-passed measure as a “hostage” today. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), looking at a home-state gubernatorial race where his party’s nominee is floundering, is getting increasingly vocal in his criticism of the holdup. And while that duo are as centrist as two Democrats might come, progressives are sounding more eager to pass infrastructure as they get more evidence that they’ve pushed the rest of their party about as far as possible on social spending. It’s entirely possible that both bills will make it to lawful bliss on Biden’s desk – though less and less likely that they’ll stay connected, given that House passage of the social spending package will presage a much longer Senate consideration. From the start, Democrats never quite agreed on timing for these bills even as they set and missed repeated deadlines. Now we’re seeing their time — as well as their political capital — run short. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at eschor@politico.com or on Twitter at @eschor.   JOIN TUESDAY FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AIR TRAVEL: As delegates descend on Glasgow for the COP26 global climate summit, reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector will play a critical role in the progress of fighting climate change. Join POLITICO for a deep-dive conversation that will explore the increased use of sustainable aviation fuel, better performance aircraft, and other breakthroughs in to cut greenhouse gas emissions and meet broader sustainability goals. REGISTER HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Kavanaugh, Barrett air skepticism of Texas abortion law: The Supreme Court wrestled today with the most significant abortion cases it has heard in nearly three decades , mulling the fate of a Texas law that has sharply restricted abortions in the state by opening health care workers and others to the threat of private lawsuits for facilitating the termination of a pregnancy. Two appointees of President Donald Trump — Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — raised the hopes of abortion rights advocates with their questions in today’s arguments. Both aired concerns that Texas’ abortion ban was designed to evade federal law and constitutional review. — Biden underscores commitment to climate action in Glasgow: Biden joined world leaders today in pledging to address climate change, addressing a conference an ocean away from Washington, where his agenda and ability to deliver on those promises remained the subject of ongoing talks. In a speech to the United Nations climate change summit in Glasgow, Biden likened the global experience battling Covid-19 to the need to combat rising temperatures and the extreme weather events that accompany them. — Pregnant people were shut out of Covid vaccine trials — with disastrous results: The decision to exclude pregnant people from the first wave of Covid-19 vaccine trials created a data gap that inadvertently fueled vaccine hesitancy — in some cases, with deadly consequences. With a lack of concrete data on the vaccines’ safety in pregnant and lactating people when they first became available, trusted sources like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists hedged on recommending the shots for those groups, instead advising patients to consult with their doctors. — Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine: New commercial satellite photos taken today confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring. The new images taken by Maxar Technologies and shared with POLITICO show a buildup of armored units, tanks and self-propelled artillery along with ground troops near the Russian town of Yelnya close to the border of Belarus. The units, which began moving in late September from other areas of Russia where they are normally based, including the elite 1st Guards Tank Army. — On election eve, Trump touts ties with Youngkin: Trump sought to tether himself to Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin on the eve of Virginia’s highly anticipated gubernatorial election, encouraging his supporters to show up to vote in what polls predict will be a tight race. “The Fake News media, together with some of the perverts doing ads ad nauseam on primarily Fox (Fox shouldn’t take those ads!), are trying to create an impression that Glenn Youngkin and I are at odds and don't like each other,” Trump said in a statement today. AROUND THE NATION Boston mayoral candidate City Councilwoman at-large Michelle Wu talks with a campaign worker. ONE IF BY DORCHESTER, TWO IF BY SOUTH END — Boston will elect one of two women — Michelle Wu, a progressive who would be the city’s first Asian American mayor, and Annissa Essaibi George, a moderate by liberal Boston standards, who would be the city’s first Arab American mayor — Tuesday in a mayoral race that has demonstrated how the city’s changing neighborhoods are shifting political power in the city. For the first time, Boston residents will elect a woman of color as mayor. Until March, when city council president Kim Janey took over for now-Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, the city had been led by white men for nearly 200 years. Nightly’s Renuka Rayasam chatted over Slack today with Massachusetts Playbook author Lisa Kashinsky today about what to look for in the election. This conversation has been edited. What does this moment tell us about Boston politics, beyond the historic nature of the candidacies? The September preliminary election results cemented this race as a classic progressive-versus-moderate clash that will test how liberal this liberal bastion really is. Progressives have been winning more seats on the Boston City Council in recent years (a trend that really accelerated with Rep. Ayanna Pressley, followed by Wu). But now they’re poised to take the mayor’s office. Essaibi George, whose politics align more closely with two-term former mayor Walsh, has been the underdog throughout the general election. Wu has a roughly 30-point lead in most polls, and surveys show majority support for some of her most progressive policies, including bringing back rent control that was abolished in Massachusetts nearly three decades ago. What is driving the popularity of progressive politics in Boston? Boston’s demographic shifts over the past couple of decades have led us to this point. More liberal-skewing young professionals are moving in and families in the city’s more traditional — and more traditionally conservative — Irish American and Italian American neighborhoods have been heading for the suburbs. And voters in more liberal neighborhoods have been increasingly turning out to the polls. Will the election tell us something about Democratic politics nationally? Wu, a disciple of Sen. Elizabeth Warren who’s proposed a city Green New Deal, offers one of the best chances for a progressive win to help change the narrative emerging from these off-year races that the future of the Democratic Party is more moderate.   BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.     AROUND THE WORLD Q’S ABOUT THE QUEUES — The COP26 U.N. climate talks today gave delegates a welcome of queues, cold and confusion. With security heightened as more than 100 world leaders gathered to address the summit, thousands of diplomats, journalists and activists were left standing in long lines to get into the venue, delaying some negotiating meetings, Karl Mathiesen writes. U.N. climate talks veterans said the queues reminded them of the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen conference, where poor logistics and politics colluded to poison the atmosphere. “This has an effect on the mood. Some are starting to talk about the conference that shall not be named,” said a negotiator from Europe. Adding to the sense of disorder, a helpline set up for disabled delegates was not responding to messages. Many delegates — including some leaders — are staying in Edinburgh after affordable accommodations in Glasgow ran out. “Why on earth was this venue selected if they knew it could not handle the crowd?” said an adviser to Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who is commuting from the Scottish capital each day. NIGHTLY NUMBER 9,000 The number of city workers New York placed on leave without pay today as its coronavirus vaccine mandate for the public workforce kicked in . The requirement ordered by Mayor Bill de Blasio — one of the most aggressive in the nation — has pushed the vaccination rate among all city workers to 91 percent. PARTING WORDS “What people have been attempting to figure out is, if this community can hold on to the ideas that we espoused after the summer of hate. We are not doing such a good job with that.” — NIKUYAH WALKER, CHARLOTTESVILLE’S FIRST BLACK FEMALE MAYOR, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH RENU, COMING TUESDAY IN POLITICO MAGAZINE   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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