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Thursday, November 4, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Covid didn’t vote

 



 
POLITICO Nightly logo

BY LAUREN MORELLO WITH JOANNE KENEN

With help from Tyler Weyant

People stand under a tent at a COVID-19 testing station in New York City.

People stand under a tent at a COVID-19 testing station in New York City. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

REPLY HAZY — A conversation between POLITICO’s former health editor Joanne Kenen and deputy health care editor Lauren Morello:

So Lauren, Virginia and New Jersey told us that voters don’t like Covid. Does Covid care?

Not at all, Joanne. I’m as tired of Covid as anyone, but the virus will keep doing its thing whether or not we acknowledge its presence or act to limit the threat. Many scientists think the virus will become endemic — that even after the pandemic ends, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will still circulate at some level. So we have to find a way to live with it.

Both of us have been worriers — one of the burdens of being a health reporter is we understood early on how bad this could get, although it’s been worse than even most of us worriers expected. But it’s really hard to figure out where things are now, particularly with the holidays coming. Overall cases and deaths are dropping — but we’ve been here before.

Yep. Holidays are a wild card — so many people travel for Thanksgiving, and then there’s Christmas, Hanukkah, school winter breaks. We saw cases surge last year because of all that mixing over the holidays. I think we’ll see some kind of bump this year, too, but I’m hoping it won’t be as bad because vaccines are widely available now. As of last night, everyone down to 5 years old is eligible.

How big a turning point is the vaccination eligibility for 5-11? A lot of parents have been so eager for this moment — but others, including some who are vaccinated themselves, are nervous. They want to wait until there’s more data.

The hesitancy among parents follows a familiar pattern: Vaccine hesitancy peaks before a group is eligible for the shot, then decreases over time. I think we’ll see that here — but the decline may be slower than with teens or adults. Many parents have absorbed the idea that Covid is less of a threat to kids. But as the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel made clear Tuesday, that’s all relative. An analysis by CDC staff estimates that Covid has caused far more deaths per year in the pre-teen kids than other familiar childhood illnesses like chickenpox, rotavirus and rubella did before we had vaccines for them.

The bottom line is that individual kids will benefit — and every little bit of vaccination helps the country’s chances of beating down this virus. Twenty-eight million kids are now able to get the vaccine.

So if all 28 million got vaccinated — which of course won't happen — it would make schools a lot safer and less stressful, and kids wouldn’t be spreading the virus to older people as much, either. But even with a lower number of kids getting vaccinated, it should be another way of making the virus more manageable, right? Also, I saw someone on Twitter talking about this, I forgot who but someone in public health — slumber parties could come back! (Though I think I’d require rapid tests along with the sleeping bags.) Luckily my kids are way, way, way beyond that stage. Slumber parties were exhausting.

Definitely. We need to use all the tools we have — especially vaccines, and at least for now, indoor masks. But then — bring on the pillow fights.

Let’s go back to that point you made about the coronavirus being endemic. That’s a scary word to people. It conjures up a permanent pandemic and all the bad stuff we’ve been living with, physically, economically, emotionally. But endemic means it’s here to stay. It doesn’t mean it’s peak pandemic now and forever, right? It doesn’t mean no slumber parties ever ever ever?

Nope. It means the virus will still be here, still infecting people, but at lower levels. There are a lot of questions still about what that looks like. If the virus behaves like measles, some countries might be able to vaccinate it away while other countries still get outbreaks. If the vaccines keep protecting us over the long term, infections might become milder. For most people, they’d be more of a nuisance than a danger.

But for now, even as things seem to be looking better, we’ll still have outbreaks. Colorado’s having one right now. And to control outbreaks, we’ll need to get better at testing, at surveillance, at springing into action to prevent further spread. But what about drugs? We expect the FDA to consider Merck’s new drug molnupiravir — I’m never going to learn to spell that without looking it up. And if that one works, we could have other drugs soon, as good or better.

Should we tell Nightly readers I just had to fix your spelling? One O, one U. Molnupiravir. Say that five times fast. The name comes from Mjolnir, Thor’s hammer. It’s a pill designed to be taken at home, twice a day for five days, started within five days of symptoms. In trials, it cut the risk of severe illness and death in half. It looks really, really good, and it could be authorized as early as December, which would give us another layer of protection.

We’re going to need drugs to dig our way out of this. Some people will never get vaccinated, but they’ll catch the virus. A small slice of vaccinated people will get significant breakthrough infections. And this coronavirus still might have pandemic potential — just like we worry about a pandemic from some of the nastier flu viruses. The frustrating thing is that we’ll really only figure this out with time. That’s one of the worst parts about Covid still — the uncertainty.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at lmorello@politico.com and jkenen@jhu.com, or on Twitter at @lmorello_dc and @joannekenen.

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Pentagon predicts 5x increase in China’s nuclear weapons over next 10 years: A new Pentagon estimate says China will likely have “at least” 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030 , a massive expansion in the size of Beijing’s stockpile. The U.S. estimated that the country’s atomic arsenal consisted of about 200 warheads just last year. The new assessment of China’s nuclear threat is highlighted in the annual China Military Power report released today, and comes amid fresh warnings of Beijing’s intentions toward Taiwan and new tests of nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles.

— Supreme Court appears likely to void New York’s gun-permit law: The Supreme Court appears inclined to wipe out a series of gun-control measures that require firearm owners to show a particular, unusual need to get a permit to carry a gun outside the home. During arguments today on New York state’s strict gun laws, the court’s conservative majority signaled that it is likely to rule that the constitutional right to keep and bear arms precludes states from insisting that individuals show “proper cause” before being licensed to carry a firearm for self-defense.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

— Fed to begin pulling plug on massive aid to economy: The Federal Reserve said today it will begin to slow its massive bond purchases later this month , the first step in removing its extraordinary pandemic-era support for the economy. The long-awaited move signals both optimism about the pace of job growth and wariness about price surges that have pushed inflation up to its highest level in decades. The central bank has been buying $120 billion a month in U.S. government debt and mortgage-backed securities, a process designed to supercharge its efforts to keep borrowing costs low for households and businesses.

— Voting machine company sues One America News over 2020 election claims: The voting machine company Smartmatic filed a lawsuit today against One America News Network, accusing the far-right cable channel of libeling and slandering the firm during coverage of the 2020 election. Smartmatic, along with competitor Dominion Voting Systems, became the object of intense fixation — and a number of conspiracy theories — by former President Donald Trump and his allies, who falsely alleged that the companies’ products were used to rig the presidential election for then-candidate Biden.

 

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AROUND THE NATION

SCHOOLED — Though it appears issues surrounding schools were a factor in Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the Virginia governor’s race, the results could also prove influential in how school boards across the country act and are filled. To learn more, Nightly’s Tyler Weyant chatted over Slack with education editor Delece Smith-Barrow.

Let’s start with the issue we heard a ton about in Virginia: parental involvement in schools. From a practical standpoint in K-12 right now, how involved are parents in setting curricula right now? And do you see possible changes after its apparent resonance in Virginia?

School districts generally establish curricula, but parents can certainly influence how curricula is implemented. Parents can petition their school board about changes, and local parent-teacher associations can plan events that impact learning, such as a fundraiser to raise money for a new school club. And maybe that club wants to focus on social justice. There can be a thin line between curriculum and extracurricular activities.

I think if enough powerful parents advocate for or against a certain class or subject, school districts take notice.

As for Virginia, I think many parents have loudly spoken out about a fear of curriculum that delves into the history of systemic racism, and many have incorrectly called it critical race theory. Glenn Youngkin is seen as a leader of sorts for those parents who are nervous about how history is being taught, which books may be assigned for homework.

I don’t think the basic mechanics of how curriculum is decided will change, though. We’ve long seen powerful, vocal parents sway how school districts and individual schools operate.

Incorrectly used or not, “critical race theory” seems like a phrase we are going to hear in more races around the country. How are schools talking about it at the local level?

Critical race theory is a legal framework that’s usually taught at the graduate level. It’s been co-opted and talked about as something taught in K-12 schools, though there isn’t any concrete proof that it is. “Critical race theory” has become a catch-all term.

A number of lawmakers around the country, as well as parents and education advocates, are determined to eliminate or tamp down discussions about systemic racism that they believe will make white students feel ashamed of their race and heritage. We’re also seeing school board races, which usually fly under the radar, become more high stakes as parents run to stop what they call critical race theory from being taught in schools.

What they’re talking about is a very divisive issue at the national, state and local level. It just depends on how you think history should be taught, how much slavery should be discussed, how the Civil War should be explained, etc.

How did the height of Covid — the shutdown of schools and the introduction of hybrid learning — change how parents think about their local school boards?

Some parents are also running to prevent stricter health protocols for students, such as mask mandates.

Because of Covid, I think more voters are seeing education and health as intertwined. They’ve always been intertwined, because schools have long regulated that you need certain vaccines to attend. But most of us have not had the opportunity to closely watch how a vaccine goes from being tested, then getting emergency authorization, then full authorization, until now.

Covid has made parents hyper aware of what it means to have their children or their children’s teachers vaccinated, and it’s made all of us think about how a school building is more than just a place to learn. It’s a place where people hug, push each other on the swing, crowd around a tablet to play games. As enriching as schools are, they’re also places for germs to spread. And if you’re there for six-plus hours a day, you can’t not focus on the health implications of those environments.

AROUND THE WORLD

NEVER TEXT — A press leak of a text message sent by French President Emmanuel Macron to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is an “unprecedented new low” in the relationship between the two countries , France’s ambassador in Canberra, Jean-Pierre Thébault, said today.

The move will impact “how to proceed and also in terms of truth and trust,” Thébault said in an indignant speech to Australia’s National Press Club, Pierre-Paul Bermingham writes.

“You don’t behave like this on personal exchanges of leaders,” he added. “Doing so also sends a very worrying signal for all heads of state: ‘Beware, in Australia there will be leaks. And what you say in confidence to your partners will be eventually used and weaponized against you one day.’”

The unusual leak of direct correspondence between two world leaders came on Tuesday, as both countries continue to feud over the cancellation of an Australian order of 12 submarines from French defense contractor Naval Group, with Paris still furious over what it says was a lack of forewarning.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

44 months

The longest sentence sought yet by federal prosecutors in a case stemming from the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol , for Scott Fairlamb, a former MMA fighter who was filmed punching a police officer in the head after breaching the building.

PARTING WORDS

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy speaks during an election night event at Grand Arcade at the Pavilion in Asbury Park.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy speaks during an election night event at Grand Arcade at the Pavilion in Asbury Park. | Mark Makela/Getty Images

PANIC ON THE PARKWAY — New Jersey Democrats took solace today when the Associated Press declared Gov. Phil Murphy the winner of the election Tuesday over former Assemblymember Jack Ciattarelli.

But, privately, the party has been riven with shock, confusion and behind-the-scenes maneuvering. Democrats hadn’t detected a red undercurrent that propelled little-known legislative candidates to victory over previously well-entrenched Democrats and put Ciattarelli within striking distance of the governor. Their internal polling was dead wrong, Matt Friedman writes.

Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester), the state’s second most powerful elected official, appeared poised to lose reelection to a virtually-unknown and basically unfunded Republican, Ed Durr. Democratic state senators and their allies furiously worked the phones today to position themselves to replace Sweeney, who’s been in charge of the Senate for a record 12 years.

Sweeney’s likely defeat was a source of joy to Republicans as well as progressive Democrats, as he often allied with former Republican Gov. Chris Christie and was a key partner in enacting cuts to public worker benefits.

Joanne Kenen is the Commonwealth Fund journalist-in-residence at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.


 

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