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Friday, November 19, 2021

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Polling the governor’s race, one year out

 



 
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BY LISA KASHINSKY

JUMP BALL — Gov. Charlie Baker leads state Attorney General Maura Healey by a small margin in a hypothetical 2022 governor’s race match-up, according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB poll.

Baker edges Healey 33 percent to 27 percent among the 750 respondents surveyed between Nov. 9 and 16. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.

Nearly a third of voters are undecided, giving Healey an opening in what would be an uphill battle against a two-term Republican governor who continues to poll better with Democrats than his own party. Republicans gave Baker a 41 percent approval rating in the survey, independents gave him 48 percent and Democrats gave him 65 percent.

Many in Democratic circles believe Healey has the best shot against Baker if he runs in 2022 (she did beat him in a basketball game back in 2014). This poll supports that theory. Baker leads state Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz 35-16; former state Sen. Ben Downing 35-11; and Harvard professor Danielle Allen 33-12. But if Baker steps aside, Healey leads Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito 32-18 in that hypothetical matchup.

WILL SHE OR WON’T SHE — The pollsters say their results show Healey is "wise to take a wait and see approach." But some Democratic donors and activists are growing impatient.

Some are eager for Healey to get in the fight against Baker. Others say her indecision is hurting the Democrats already in the race, who are having trouble securing commitments from some endorsers and donors who are, in turn, waiting on the AG’s decision and fearing she’s waiting on the governor.

"It's hard [to build a campaign] if you have these two big gorillas sitting in the middle of the road staring each other down," a Democratic donor already aligned with a candidate told me.

Healey’s fence-sitting also freezes the 2022 attorney general race. Former Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Quentin Palfrey and labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan have expressed interest — if Healey’s out. Other potential statewide candidates are also watching for an opening.

Healey’s making calls to electeds and activistskeeping up public appearances, grabbing headlines and sitting on nearly $3.3 million. But her fundraising doesn’t appear to be ramping up. And one of her more prominent former aides, Mike Firestone, just joined Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s administration.

Steve Grossman, the former state treasurer and DNC chair, told me he understands "why people like to have closure and certainty." But he said Healey, a well-connected two-term incumbent, "is in a position to make her own timetable."

She can’t wait too much longer. The Democratic caucuses, where candidates lock up delegates for the party’s convention, start in early February.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTSToday's Playbook is brought to you by the Patriots shutting out the Falcons.

TODAY — Assistant House Speaker Katherine Clark presides over the House's Build Back Better Act debate starting at 8 a.m.

THIS WEEKEND — Rep. Lori Trahan talks infrastructure funding and other Congress goings-on at 8:30 a.m. Sunday on WBZ’s “Keller at Large.” Secretary of State Bill Galvin is this week’s guest on WCVB’s “On the Record” at 11 a.m. Sunday. LG candidate state Rep. Tami Gouveia hosts a virtual conversation with former Texas congressional hopeful Julie Oliver at 7 p.m. Sunday.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for the Playbook? Get in touch: lkashinsky@politico.com.

 

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THE LATEST NUMBERS

– “Massachusetts coronavirus cases surge 3,196, hospitalizations continue rising,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald.

– “Significant increase in Massachusetts school COVID cases, with 3,257 students and 558 staffers positive in past week,” by Melissa Hanson, MassLive.

– “Town-by-town COVID-19 data in Massachusetts,” by Ryan Huddle and Peter Bailey-Wells, Boston Globe.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

– "Baker criticizes lawmakers for failing to pass pandemic stimulus bill: ‘I can’t tell you how frustrated I am,'" by Matt Stout, Boston Globe: “‘The Legislature made a commitment to get it done before they went home for the holiday season and I can’t tell you how frustrated I am,’ [Gov. Charlie] Baker told reporters. ‘Not just for me but for all the mayors and small businesses and folks who are looking for an opportunity to do something other than what they were doing before, and getting the skills that would be required to do that.’ Aides to Senator Michael J. Rodrigues and Representative Aaron Michlewitz — the lead negotiators on the bill for their respective chambers — either declined to address Baker’s remarks or did not respond to requests for comment.”

– IT'S NOT JUST BAKER: Lawmakers took heat from all sides after failing to reach a deal on the nearly $4 billion American Rescue Plan Act and surplus-fund spending bill before formal sessions ended for the year. GOP gubernatorial hopeful Geoff Diehl, a former state representative, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ben Downing , a former state senator, both joined Baker in lambasting the Legislature’s inaction. Diehl called for lawmakers to suspend an internal rule and extend formal sessions for a month.

– “RIP TCI: Massachusetts ditching regional effort to curb emissions amid crumbling support,” by Nik DeCosta-Klipa, Boston.com: “Amid evaporating support from neighboring states and a windfall of federal funds for climate initiatives, Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration is throwing in the towel on its regional plan to cut down greenhouse gas emissions, known as the Transportation and Climate Initiative. In a statement Thursday afternoon, Baker press secretary Terry MacCormack noted that the administration had always said Massachusetts would only move forward with TCI if multiple states were also committed. ‘As that does not exist, the transportation climate initiative is no longer the best solution for the Commonwealth’s transportation and environmental needs,’ MacCormack said.”

– “Two years after Massachusetts approved menthol ban, some lawmakers seek reversal,” by Madeleine Pearce, BU Statehouse Program/Berkshire Eagle: “State Sen. Ryan Fattman, R-Sutton, and state Rep. Alan Silvia, D-Fall River, have filed legislation to reallow the sale of menthol cigarettes, leaving e-cigarettes or vaping products banned. State Sen. Patrick O’Connor, R-Weymouth, and state Reps. Daniel Cahill, D-Lynn, and Daniel Ryan, D-Boston, filed a separate proposal to allow sales of any tobacco product that the Food and Drug Administration designates as ‘modified risk,’ a label for products expected to ‘reduce harm or the risk of tobacco-related disease,’ according to the FDA.”

VAX-ACHUSETTS

– "Mass. residents 18 and older now eligible to receive COVID-19 booster six months after getting their last vaccine," by Travis Andersen, Martin Finucane and Ryan Huddle, Boston Globe: "All Massachusetts residents 18 and older are now eligible to receive a COVID-19 booster shot if they are six months removed from their second Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or two months from the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, state officials said Thursday. With COVID-19 cases on the rise in Massachusetts and across New England, officials said residents can receive booster shots from more than 1,000 locations statewide. Governor Charlie Baker said pharmacies have indicated they can handle the anticipated surge in demand for the additional vaccine dose."

– “Mass. State Trooper Who Refused COVID Vaccine Hands in Her Badge,” by Abbey Niezgoda, NBC10 Boston: “Samantha Cila's beliefs about the COVID-19 vaccine cost the 29-year-old her dream job of being a state trooper. She was relieved of her duties Thursday after she refused to get the shot, defying the state's mandate. Cila's mother, Cheryl, told NBC10 Boston that her daughter would not get the vaccine because of religious reasons. She applied for an exemption, but it was denied.”

WHAT CITY HALL IS READING

– "Wu taps Segun Idowu as Boston’s chief of economic development," by Jeremy C. Fox, Boston Globe: "Mayor Michelle Wu has appointed Segun Idowu, president of the Black Economic Council of Massachusetts, to be her chief of economic development, officials said Thursday night, as Wu continued building out her cabinet. ... Idowu made the announcement at the council’s annual meeting, saying he was stepping down from the council Dec. 31 and taking the post Jan. 3, according to video of the event posted on Twitter."

– “Mass and Cass-area businesses, residents worry over Wu ‘pausing’ of tent enforcement,” by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: “Call it Schrodinger’s cat’s pause. Mayor Michelle Wu isn’t saying whether or not the ‘pausing’ of tent-removal efforts on Mass and Cass is alive or dead, spurring fear among locals that any progress made over the past few weeks is going to slip right away. … [Wu] said she’s working with her top advisers ‘to figure out the most urgent steps that the city can take,’ though she added that ‘it is not safe for people to be in tents on the street.’”

– “Dorchester bus riders celebrate expanded fare-free service, but Wu’s proposal still awaits a vote,” by Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe: “Bus riders awaiting the 23 at the Ashmont MBTA station in Dorchester on Thursday morning were thrilled that the bus will likely soon be free for them, part of an early effort to fulfill a campaign promise by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, who was sworn in this week.”

– “Boston Public Schools’ enrollment drops below 50,000 students for the first time,” by James Vaznis, Boston Globe: “Enrollment in the Boston Public Schools this year dropped below 50,000 students for the first time, a worrisome marker that continues a lengthy period of declining enrollment for the state’s largest school district, according to a Globe analysis of state data released Thursday. Overall, 48,654 students are attending 122 schools in the district, a decrease of more than 2,000 students from the last school year…”

TODAY'S SPECIAL (ELECTION)

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Rep. Ayanna Pressley has endorsed Boston City Councilor Lydia Edwards in her state Senate bid. “Our communities are facing overlapping crises of public health, economic inequality and racial injustice. At the heart of each of these issues is housing, and Lydia has been a champion for housing justice throughout her career,” Pressley said in a statement.

– Edwards also won Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s endorsement. It’s Wu’s first political move since taking office on Tuesday, a significance not lost on the former City Council colleagues. It's "the validation that a lot of people need to see because she’s the first woman [elected] to lead this city and to be her first endorsement, to move your political will, might, in my direction is — I’m speechless,” Edwards, who endorsed Wu in her mayoral bid, said.

– More from the Boston Herald’s Sean Philip Cotter“Asked whether the residents of Boston — who just elected her mayor by a sizable margin — should worry that Wu is spending the better part of an hour out politicking just two days into taking office, the newly minted mayor insisted that she was in fact doing her job.”

– FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Revere Mayor Brian Arrigo has endorsed School Committee member Anthony D’Ambrosio in the state Senate race against Edwards. “Anthony D’Ambrosio has a unique blend of experience and ideas that will benefit each and every resident of this district,” Arrigo said in a statement.

BALLOT BATTLES

– FIRST LOOK: The UMass Amherst/WCVB poll also offers an early look at the sentiments surrounding some of the proposed 2022 ballot questions:

– On requiring voter identification at polls: 55 percent would vote yes, 34 percent would vote no, 11 percent are undecided.

– On classifying app-based drivers as independent contractors: 44 percent would vote yes, 21 percent would vote no, 35 percent are undecided.

– On ending the state’s ban on “happy hour” promotions: 46 percent would vote yes, 25 percent would vote no, 29 percent are undecided.

FEELING '22

– "Gov. Baker's approval rating rises slightly alongside economic optimism, UMass Amherst/WCVB poll finds," by WCVB: "Fifty-six percent of those polled by UMass Amherst and WCVB said they approve of the job Baker is doing. That's up from 52% in March, but the increase is within the poll's 4.3% margin of error. Baker's approval rating in August 2020 was 78%."

– “Shrewsbury Republican to challenge McGovern,” by Brian Steele, Daily Hampshire Gazette: “A Republican candidate seeking to unseat Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern in 2022 has promised to serve just six years, and he is positioning himself as a moderate alternative to right-wing members of Congress who would prefer to gut social service programs and crack down on legal immigration. Jeffrey Sossa-Paquette pledged that, if elected, he would serve only three terms, then give up the seat. The goal, he said, is to avoid becoming a ‘career politician’ while making room for a new generation of leaders.”

HEALEY WATCH

– “Healey co-leading investigation into the impact of Instagram on young people,” by Anissa Gardizy, Boston Globe: “Attorney General Maura Healey said Thursday that she is co-leading a nationwide investigation into Meta, the parent company of Instagram, for promoting the photo-sharing app to children and young adults while knowing it caused harm to their physical and mental health.”

 “AG Healey submits blistering report on Mass General Brigham expansion,” by Jessica Bartlett, Boston Business Journal: “Attorney General Maura Healey released an extraordinary report late Wednesday saying that a planned expansion at Mass General Brigham will ultimately increase health care spending statewide, contrary to the claims of the state's largest health care system.”

WARREN REPORT

– “Warren calls for investigation into planned Trump SPAC deal,” by Mychael Schnell, The Hill: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Wednesday called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to open an investigation into the planned deal between former President Trump’s new media and technology company and a Special Purpose Acquisition Company, or SPAC.”

– “Elizabeth Warren is touting how Senate Democrats would make big corporations like Amazon pay under their tax plans,” by Juliana Kaplan, Insider.

DAY IN COURT

– “High court sides with DOC on prison COVID rules,” by Shira Schoenberg, CommonWealth Magazine: “The Supreme Judicial Court ruled Thursday that the Department of Correction has not been ‘deliberately indifferent’ to inmates’ health during the COVID pandemic, because it took precautions and, most significantly, offered COVID vaccines to all inmates. Attorneys for prisoners had argued that the department should have done more to release prisoners because of the health risks posed by COVID-19.”

IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN

– “A ‘momentous day’ for Vineyard Wind,” by George Brennan, MV Times: “Against the backdrop of Nantucket Sound and a steady wind that would surely keep a field of turbines spinning, political leaders and representatives of Vineyard Wind gathered at Covell’s Beach in Centerville to celebrate the nation’s first commercial-scale offshore wind project. Federal and state leaders broke ground at the site in Barnstable, which is where Vineyard 1’s export cables will make landfall. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland was joined inside a large tent by Gov. Charlie Baker, Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, House Speaker Ron Mariano, state Sen. Julian Cyr, D-Truro, and state Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Kathleen Theoharides.”

MARIJUANA IN MASSACHUSETTS

– “Western Massachusetts’ 1st minority-owned dispensary opens in Northampton, a bittersweet event after losing its visionary to cancer in May,” by Will Katcher, MassLive: “Western Massachusetts’ first dispensary licensed by the state under a special program boosting minority-owned businesses officially opened its Northampton doors in a ribbon-cutting ceremony Thursday morning."

– “Little Steven gives Holyoke dispensary an exclusive on his pre-rolls,” by Brian Steele, Daily Hampshire Gazette: “HOLYOKE — Legendary rock musician Steven Van Zandt, an advocate for full marijuana legalization, toured the Canna Provisions dispensary on Thursday to promote his new line of cannabis pre-rolls, grown by a western Massachusetts cultivator who was once busted by federal agents.”

THE LOCAL ANGLE

– “Most teachers are women. But male educators take a ‘glass elevator’ to leadership positions,” by Stephanie Ebbert, Boston Globe: “Ever notice that school systems are typically led by male superintendents while the teaching staff predominantly consists of women? A new report confirms that disparity, finding that women represent 76 percent of teachers in Massachusetts’ largest public schools but only 39 percent of the superintendents.”

– “CVS to close 900 stores over three years,” by Alexa Gagosz, Boston Globe: “The closures are set to begin in spring 2022, but the company did not say which stores in which state would be affected. … Approximately 8,600 people are employed by CVS in Rhode Island and 12,800 in Massachusetts.”

– "Federal prosecutors fire back at Jasiel Correia II's request to stay home for the holidays," by Jo C. Goode, Herald News: "A day after attorneys for former mayor Jasiel Correia II filed a motion asking a federal judge to keep him out of prison until after Christmas, federal prosecutors fired back on Thursday with their own motion opposing the request."

TRANSITIONS – Progressive Mass has a new staff team starting Nov. 29 with Jonathan Cohn as policy director and Nazia Ashraful and Melanie O’Malley as co-directors of outreach and operations.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY – to WaPo’s Matt Viser, Sean Rourke and Evan Falchuk.

HAPPY BIRTHWEEKEND – to Rep. Jim McGovern, state Rep. Jack Patrick Lewis, BECMA's Samuel M. Gebru; Rebecca Hart Holder, executive director of Reproductive Equity Now; Matt BarronErika Scibelli and Valerie Frias, who celebrate Saturday; and to state Rep. David Muradian, Matt Martinelli, Michael Lipson and Timothy Cronin, who celebrate Sunday.

NEW HORSE RACE ALERT: AN EXPENSIVE DEBATE OVER GIG WORKERS' RIGHTS — Host Jennifer Smith brings you both sides of the debate over the proposed 2022 ballot question to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors with Conor Yunits of the Massachusetts Coalition for Independent Work and labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan, who's supporting the Coalition to Protect Workers’ Rights. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and Sound Cloud.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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