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10 August 21
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This is the sixth time since 1988 that the IPCC has rung the alarm—but this one is different.
n the future, when historians are doing their work, many of them in underwater archives, they are going to be mystified by the role played by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Golly, they will say through their respiration devices, why didn’t anyone listen to these people? On Monday, the IPCC issued yet another report on the climate crisis, and the only way it could have been more direct about the imminent threat to human habitation is if you tied the report around a brick and threw it through a window at Exxon HQ. From the Guardian:
Within the next two decades, temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the ambition of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and bringing widespread devastation and extreme weather. Only rapid and drastic reductions in greenhouse gases in this decade can prevent such climate breakdown, with every fraction of a degree of further heating likely to compound the accelerating effects, according to the International Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on climate science.
This is the sixth time since 1988 that the IPCC has rung the alarm, and this time it’s hitting a gong the size of Wyoming with the hammer of doom.
António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned: “[This report] is a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.” He called for an end to new coal plants and to new fossil fuel exploration and development, and for governments, investors and businesses to pour all their efforts into a low-carbon future. “This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet,” he said.
Joe Manchin just caught a chill and doesn’t know why.
After a ship sinks, there always comes a point where the Coast Guard announces that its efforts have changed from “rescue” to “recovery.” I have a feeling from this report that we are at that kind of moment right now. So much of the damage appears irreversible that it’s time to make plans on how we’re going to live in a radically transformed biosphere.
Even if the world manages to limit warming to 1.5C, some long-term impacts of warming already in train are likely to be inevitable and irreversible. These include sea level rises, the melting of Arctic ice, and the warming and acidification of the oceans. Drastic reductions in emissions can stave off worse climate change, according to IPCC scientists, but will not return the world to the more moderate weather patterns of the past. Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, and a lead author for the IPCC, said: “We are already experiencing climate change, including more frequent and extreme weather events, and for many of these impacts there is no going back.”
All of this was avoidable, of course, if we didn’t fundamentally believe that the climate crisis was essentially a political debate. The parallels to the pandemic are frighteningly exact: the scientific community is gradually acclimating itself (and us) to the fact that COVID is not going to be eradicated, but that, rather, it will be one of those diseases that is a part of being alive in this world, or whatever’s left of it. Welcome to Happy Fun Monday.
A healthcare worker and a patient. (photo: ABC News)
The lack of data around breakthrough infections is giving many Americans a false sense of security
he Delta variant was first identified in the United States in April and by May it was well onto its exponential growth curve, doubling every 10-12 days, as the basis for Covid infections, now reaching over 96% prevalence. Ironically, on 1 May, the CDC announced it would stop monitoring post-vaccination breakthrough infections unless they led to hospitalizations or deaths. This decision can be seen as exceptionally ill-advised and has led to a country flying blind in its attempt to confront its fourth wave of infections – one that has rapidly led to well over 100,000 new cases per day and more than 60,000 hospitalizations, both higher than the US first and second pandemic waves. It is unfathomable that we do not know how many of these are occurring in people who were vaccinated.
Most people who get Covid infections after being fully vaccinated have mild to moderate symptoms, and generally have been thought to avoid hospitalizations. But that sense of confidence about vaccine protection was built upon the pre-Delta data when the CDC was monitoring breakthroughs. Still being reported by CDC, from their latest website data, and a constant refrain from public health officials, is that “99.99% of people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 have not had a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization or death.” That could not be further from the truth. In the July Provincetown Delta outbreaks that the CDC reported on the risk of fully vaccinated requiring hospitalization was 1%, not .01%, and that may not be a reliable estimate for the incidence of such infections occurring throughout the country.
Without tracking, we have no idea of the proportion of people fully vaccinated who are getting ill, hospitalized, or dying. There is no question the frequency of requiring hospitalization is increasing, as reflected by data from some counties that are tracking breakthroughs on their own and reporting that 10 to 20% of admissions are in vaccinated individuals. But we have no denominator.
Why is this so critically important? For one, the false sense of security transmitted by CDC’s lack of data in the Delta wave likely fosters complacency and lack of protective measures such as masks and distancing. The mission of the CDC to prevent such illness, and the first step is to collect the relevant data. It would be very simple to know the vaccination status of every American with a breakthrough infection admitted to the hospital with Covid-19, along with key demographics such as age, time from vaccination, which vaccine, and co-existing medical conditions. The PCR diagnostic test for each patient has an accompanying cycle threshold (Ct) value, which is an indicator of viral load, and would be important to track. Moreover, the sample of the virus could undergo genomic sequencing to determine whether there has been further evolution of the virus and blood samples for neutralizing antibody levels that could be obtained in as many patients as possible. Contact tracing of these individuals would help determine the true rate of transmission from other vaccines, something that is pure conjecture. Such systematic collection of data would be the foundation for understanding who is at risk for breakthrough infections, determining the current level of effectiveness of vaccines and whether, when, and in whom, booster shots should be recommended. It is remarkable that none of this is getting done for hospitalized patients, who represent an undetermined fraction of the people who are getting quite ill, some requiring monoclonal antibody infusions to pre-empt getting admitted.
This is not by any means the first breakdown of the CDC in managing and communicating about the pandemic. But with billions of dollars allocated to CDC earlier this year for improved Covid-19 surveillance, this represents a blatant failure that is putting millions of vaccinated Americans at unnecessary risk for breakthrough infections and leaving us without a navigational system for the US Delta wave.
Donald Trump. (photo: Andrew Harrer/Getty Images)
Since the 2020 election, the former president and the Republican Party have refunded more than $77 million after donors unwittingly opted in to recurring payments
ne of former president Trump’s biggest campaign expenses this year has been refunding donors who were duped into making multiple increasing donations. Trump and the Republican Party have returned $12.8 million to donors in the first half of 2021, according to newly released federal records.
The New York Times reported that the refunds account for approximately 20 percent of Trump’s total fundraising so far this year. The refunds are the result of shady campaign tactics where donors unwittingly agreed to make recurring donations thanks to a pre-checked box on the donation form that set up weekly or monthly automatic payments. Another pre-checked box signed donors up for a “money bomb,” which doubled their contribution. Both boxes were accompanied by tiny text that was worded in a confusing way, making it more likely donors left them checked without understanding what they were agreeing to.
Trump resorted to these tactics, known as “dark pattern design,” that are set up to intentionally deceive the user starting in September 2020, when it was becoming clear he was falling behind then-candidate Joe Biden.
The 2021 refunds only add to the total number of reimbursements the campaign and party have had to give back. In the last two months of 2020, Trump and the Republican National Committee gave back $64.3 million to online donors.
In response, Trump spokesperson Jason Miller told the Times, “Our campaign was built by the hardworking men and women of America, and cherishing their investments was paramount to anything else we did.”
While dark pattern design is relatively common, the way Trump and the Republicans used it was exceptional, experts have said. Biden’s campaign also issued donor refunds, but according to the Times, it was much less common. While the Biden campaign’s refund rate was 2.2 percent, Trump’s was nearly five times higher at 10.7 percent, federal records indicate.
“I’ve never seen anyone do what the Trump campaign just did,” Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, told Business Insider of the tactics. He went on to describe it as “a complete rip-off.”
“They knew exactly what they were doing,” he said. “They knew they were tricking people into signing up for what they thought was one contribution when they were really signing up for multiple contributions. Then when they got caught, they sent the money back. It’s like if a bank robber got caught and said, ‘Oh, well, I gave the money back.'”
A portrait of Katie Logan, who alleges she was sexually assaulted by a People of Praise high school teacher in Minnesota two months after she graduated in 2001. (photo: Tim Gruber/WP)
Minneapolis-area school run by the Christian group People of Praise mishandled a student’s allegation of sexual abuse against a teacher, the school board president acknowledged in a recent email to teachers and parents.
People of Praise began investigating reports of abuse within the close-knit community last year. The Aug. 6 email also acknowledged an ongoing investigation into similar reports involving the same teacher.
Katie Logan told The Washington Post she was molested by Dave Beskar two weeks after her graduation from Trinity School at River Ridge in 2001, when she was 17. She also told The Post about her report to police in December 2020.
At the time of the alleged incident, Beskar was a 35-year-old teacher and girls’ basketball coach who lived in a People of Praise home for celibate men. Logan reported the alleged incident to a school official in 2006, but Beskar remained on staff until 2011, when he became the headmaster of two new charter schools in Arizona.
Beskar returned to the Minneapolis area to become headmaster of another Christian school in 2015. He resigned last month from Chesterton Academy of the Twin Cities, according to a school official, after The Post published Logan’s account in June.
That month, Trinity Schools received the “additional reports of sexual misconduct” by Beskar, according to the email from Jon Balsbaugh, president of the Trinity board of trustees, which operates three schools in Eagan, Minn., South Bend, Ind., and Falls Church, Va. He wrote that he could not provide details because of privacy concerns.
In the email, Balsbaugh does not identify Logan as the victim but describes a report of sexual misconduct reported by an “alumna” that occurred shortly after the student’s graduation in 2001.
“Trinity School as an organization did not respond to and handle earlier reports regarding Mr. Beskar the way that we would handle such reports today or that we want such matters to be handled,” Balsbaugh said in the email. “We wish we could go back in time and handle things differently.”
In a separate email to The Post on Monday, Balsbaugh said that if the school received an allegation of abuse today, law enforcement and child protective services would be contacted. He also said the accused would typically be put on administrative leave while the report is investigated.
“We are creating more robust policies and procedures for receiving, investigating, and addressing reports of sexual misconduct and other forms of abuse,” he said.
Beskar did not respond to requests for comment on the email. He told police that he had no physical or sexual contact with Logan.
The broader People of Praise inquiry began last year, following the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, who has roots in People of Praise and who served on the board of Trinity Schools after Beskar left.
Barrett’s rising national profile led about three dozen people raised in People of Praise to come together in a private Facebook group and share stories of sexual and physical abuse. One of the Facebook group’s founders, Sarah Kuehl, went public with her own account last fall, leading People of Praise to hire law firms to investigate her claim and other abuse allegations.
Craig Lent, chairman of the religious group’s board of governors, went to Logan’s home in July, she said, to apologize to her and her parents, longtime People of Praise members, and to deliver a report by the Lathrop GPM law firm into her allegation. The report by the firm said it found credible Logan’s account that Beskar came to her house to use the family computer and later pressed up against her and put his finger in her vagina. The report, which was obtained by The Post, also says that Beskar did not respond to a request for an interview.
The report echoed the investigation by police in Eden Prairie, Minn., after Logan filed a 2020 complaint. Police recommended charging Beskar with a felony of criminal sexual conduct in the third degree, records show. The statute of limitations in 2001 and the way the law was written at that time precluded charges being filed, a spokesman for the county attorney’s office told The Post.
Kuehl and some other members of the private Facebook group said they are concerned that People of Praise leaders are singling out the former teacher and failing to acknowledge a broader climate that emphasizes traditional gender roles and discourages “gossip” among community members, protecting abusers.
“The problem is not just one person, or one school or one branch,” Kuehl said.
Members of the “PoP Survivors” Facebook group created a website to offer information and support to other victims of abuse. The group is urging People of Praise to acknowledge a “systematic failure” to protect children, to add more women to leadership positions and to do outreach to former community members and Trinity students.
Lent declined to comment on the recent email and ongoing investigation.
Balsbaugh wrote in the email that “the final responsibility for protecting students and restoring trust rests with me,” but he did not detail his role in Logan’s case.
Logan said that in 2006 she called the school’s highest-ranking woman, Dean of Girls Penny Arndt, and told her about the alleged incident with Beskar. Arndt told police she relayed that account to the president of the Trinity Schools board at the time, Kerry Koller. She said she didn’t know what, if any, action Koller took. He died last year.
Arndt reported the allegation to Balsbaugh after he became the school’s headmaster in 2009 “so that it didn’t fall by the wayside because Dave was still there,” according to an audio recording of her police interview.
Balsbaugh told police that he did not learn of Logan’s complaint until Beskar had left the school in 2011. He also told police he thought Logan was 18 at the time of the “inappropriate advances” and that therefore no crime had occurred.
oberta Kaplan resigned Monday as chair of Time’s Up, an organization established to fight workplace sexual misconduct, after an investigation found she was involved in New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's effort to discredit a woman who accused him of sexual harassment, according to the 
hen the loudspeaker announced that the day’s last boat across Colombia’s Gulf of Urabá would begin boarding, a desperate scrum of Haitians rushed forward, jostling for spaces on the rickety craft.
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