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Friday, August 27, 2021

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The next Afghan civil war just started

 



 
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BY RENUKA RAYASAM

Presented by

AT&T

With help from Tyler Weyant

AFTER THE KABUL ATTACK — When Bruce Hoffman heard about the attack on Kabul’s airport this morning, he pretty quickly saw the ISIS-K coordinated suicide bombings for what it was: the clearest sign yet that even after the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan, the Taliban faces major threats to its grip on power in the country.

“The Taliban is overwhelmed,” said Hoffman, a senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations who has spent four decades studying terrorist groups. “They are very effective at bullying and victimizing civilians, but they are incompetent at battling groups that look like themselves.”

The Taliban overwhelmed Afghan military forces and captured Kabul with shocking speed. But now the Taliban must figure out how to dispatch rival terror groups like the Islamic State Khorasan that have rushed into Afghanistan’s power vacuum.

Smoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul.

Smoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul. | Wali Sabawoon/AP Photo

“You have the beginnings of a massive relocation of radical Islamists to Afghanistan,” Jason Blazakis, a former State Department official and terrorism expert at The Soufan Center, a nonprofit focused on global security, told Nightly.

This is not entirely new, of course. About 18 of the 72 State Department designated terrorist groups operate out of Afghanistan and Pakistan, Blazakis said.

But between 8,000 and 10,000 foreign terrorist fighters have recently flooded into Afghanistan, according to a United Nations report released in June. Most of these fighters are Taliban-affiliated, but there are also those who support al Qaeda or ISIS.

The Taliban works closely with al Qaeda and the Haqqani network, a militant group that has taken over security in the Afghan capital. Together they face a bitter rival in ISIS, an al Qaeda offshoot that sees its predecessor as not hardline enough.

Blazakis said he wouldn’t be surprised if more ISIS fighters come to Afghanistan, as they did in Iraq in the 2010s. The Taliban doesn’t have the finances or infrastructure to completely quash ISIS on its own.

With the revival of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, along with multiple domestic and foreign threats — including from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — swamping U.S. intelligence agencies, the United States could soon face renewed attacks on American soil, Hoffman believes. He mentioned the threat of a bomb in a New York subway station or other crowded place.

But Blazakis argues that the United States is far more prepared to handle terrorists now than it was before Sept. 11, 2001. For two decades, terrorism experts have been warning about the next big attack, said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. It never materialized.

Since Sept. 11, jihadists have killed 107 people inside the United States, nearly half of them in Orlando’s Pulse nightclub attack carried out by a lone operator.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. A note for next week: Nightly won’t be publishing from Monday, Aug. 30-Monday, Sept. 6. We’ll be back and better than ever Tuesday, Sept. 7. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at rrayasam@politico.com and on Twitter at @RenuRayasam.

 

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AFGHANISTAN

THE DARKEST DAY  An already perilous withdrawal of U.S. personnel and allies from Afghanistan turned into something much darker today, as the kind of catastrophe President Joe Biden had been warning about took place outside Kabul’s main airport, Natasha Korecki and Tina Sfondeles write.

A series of terrorist attacks left at least 13 U.S. service people dead and 15 wounded — the deadliest U.S. casualty event in Afghanistan since 2011. It was the most devastating moment in Biden’s young presidency.

In its wake, U.S. officials remained steadfast that they would conclude the evacuation mission from the 20-year war.

For those in the White House, today was one of the most emotionally trying and frenetic days since taking office. As the first reports came in about explosions around Kabul, officials were confronted with a deluge of information, prompting senior officials to remind staffers to ferret out facts from the speculation and chatter. During one staff meeting, sniffles could be heard as various staffers fought back tears when they learned of the U.S. deaths, according to a person close to the situation. One White House official described the pace of the day’s events as overwhelming.

President Joe Biden speaking on Afghanistan

‘We will hunt you down and make you pay’: Biden today vowed to make terrorists “pay” for the deadly attacks. “To those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes America harm, know this: We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay,” Biden said during an evening news conference. “I will defend our interests and our people with every measure at my command.”

U.S. officials provided Taliban with names of Americans, Afghan allies to evacuate: U.S. officials in Kabul gave the Taliban a list of names of American citizens, green card holders and Afghan allies to grant entry into the militant-controlled outer perimeter of the city’s airport, a choice that's prompted outrage behind the scenes from lawmakers and military officials. The move, detailed to POLITICO by three U.S. and congressional officials , was designed to expedite the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from Afghanistan as chaos erupted in Afghanistan’s capital city last week after the Taliban seized control of the country. It also came as the Biden administration has been relying on the Taliban for security outside the airport.

 

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ASK THE AUDIENCE

Nightly asks you: Did you, or someone you know, initially decide not to get vaccinated but then got the shot? If so, what happened to change your mind (or theirs)? Send your response using our form, and we’ll include select answers in Friday’s edition.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— 7 Capitol Police officers sue Trump, others over Capitol riot: Seven Capitol Police officers who defended Congress during the Jan. 6 attack are suing former President Donald Trump, pro-Trump militias and other associates, claiming they conspired to violently overturn the results of the 2020 election. The suit, filed this morning in U.S. District Court in Washington by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, contends that Trump and his allies violated the Ku Klux Klan Act and D.C. law by scheming to block Congress from certifying Biden’s win.

— Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd speaks out on fatal shooting of Ashli Babbitt: Byrd, the U.S. Capitol Police Officer who fatally shot Babbitt during the Jan. 6 insurrection, defended his actions and revealed his identity for the first time in an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt that aired this evening. “I know that day I saved countless lives,” Byrd told the network. “I know members of Congress, as well as my fellow officers and staff, were in jeopardy and in serious danger. And that’s my job.”

— Kamala Harris’ campaign rally for Newsom canceled after Afghanistan attacks: Vice President Kamala Harris skipped a planned Bay Area rally for Gavin Newsom during his recall fight. Harris, returning from a weeklong trip in Southeast Asia, will head back to Washington, her spokesperson tweeted this afternoon. A campaign spokesperson for the Democratic governor confirmed that Harris will not join Newsom for the Friday car rally, which is now canceled.

— Biden reschedules meeting with Israeli prime minister: Biden’s bilateral meeting with the Israeli prime minister has been postponed, the White House said today, after the deadly attacks at the Kabul airport that killed and wounded multiple U.S. troops. The White House rescheduled the meeting with Naftali Bennett, the newly elected prime minister, for Friday.

— GOP bans on school masks draw federal civil rights challenges: Disability rights advocates are taking on Republican governors who block school mask requirements, launching a slew of federal civil rights lawsuits that could serve as a blueprint for the Biden administration as it weighs legal options to fight the policies. The legal challenges — filed separately in recent weeks against Texas, Florida and South Carolina — argue that those states’ bans on universal masking in schools run afoul of federal anti-discrimination laws meant to protect children with disabilities.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

28,000

The number of Americans who have died from gun violence this year, according to a letter sent to Biden by four advocacy groups . With Biden’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives lacking any viable path to confirmation, gun violence survivors and activists are pushing the president to create a White House office of gun violence headed by a Cabinet-level aide.

 

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PARTING WORDS

Hawaii Gov. David Ige speaks to reporters in Honolulu.

Hawaii Gov. David Ige speaks to reporters in Honolulu. | Audrey McAvoy/AP Photo

SOMEONE FOUND THE BRADY BUNCH IDOL — Nightly’s Tyler Weyant, unfortunately not in Honolulu, writes:

Your social media timelines have likely been riddled with scenic views of Hawaiian resort beaches recently, thanks to the incessant online chatter about HBO’s White Lotus. After months of constant concerns about Covid, Hawaii may seem like the perfect place to get away as summer draws to a close.

But David Ige, the state’s Democratic governor, sent a message this week to those thinking of visiting: Thanks, but come back some other time.

According to the head of the Hawaii Tourism Authority, John De Fries, don’t even think about planning a last-minute Honolulu Halloween: He suggests tourists should not come until at least the end of October.

Visitor numbers are already dipping past their usual seasonal decline , said Carl Bonham, a University of Hawaii economics professor: “The governor’s statements followed many news reports in early August about Hawaii’s rising case counts and strained hospitals. So visitors were already having to choose whether to keep their reservations and risk some disruption to their trip due to new restrictions and of course the risk of catching the virus,” Bonham told Nightly.

University of Hawaii graphic on visitor entry in Hawaii

University of Hawaii graph on visitor entry in Hawaii | University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization Analytics

The early indications of declining tourism have some local officials worried about the fallout from Ige’s remarks. Foremost among them: Democratic state House Speaker Scott Saiki.

Starting in June, daily arrivals to the islands started nearing their pre-Covid levels, Saiki said in an interview with Nightly. Residents did not respond with the aloha spirit, however. They weren’t prepared for the sudden increase in visitors, eliciting a backlash to things like traffic jams and overcrowded beaches. “I just hope that the governor’s announcement was not directed at that issue, because what he proposed doesn’t solve the underlying issue of overtourism versus management of resources in Hawaii,” Saiki said.

Saiki’s proposed solution: A vaccine passport system, similar to the one New York uses. Ige said Wednesday he hoped to have some sort of passport system running by Labor Day , though the governor has no immediate plans to mandate them for entrance into businesses.

Even without a passport system, the governor’s message should have been different, Saiki said. “The governor should have said, ‘We welcome vaccinated tourists to Hawaii. If you are not vaccinated, then please don’t travel here.’”

 

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