POLITICO NIGHTLY: The battle to lead Europe hits D.C.

 

BY RYAN HEATH Presented by With help from Renuka Rayasam WIND OF CHANGE — Angela Merkel arrives in Washington as the undisputed political queen of Europe. In the last decade of her 16 years as German chancellor she outpaced France, survived Brexit, acted as a liberal bulwark against an unpredictable American president, and sent a former protege — Ursula von der Leyen — to Brussels to run the EU executive. Merkel was also brilliant at crushing domestic rivals. So good in fact, there’s no one that can fill the void she will leave at the end of her term in September. But French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to seize Merkel’s European crown, despite low approval ratings at home, by promoting himself as the ultimate save-the-planet leader. Protesters urging increased and expedited Covid-19 vaccine access for the global community unfurl a banner featuring German Chancellor Angela Merkel in front of the White House. | Win McNamee/Getty Images As Merkel flew out to Washington today for a farewell tour of photo ops and honorary degrees, Macron spent France’s national holiday — Bastille Day — playing an altogether more revolutionary game. Macron is counting on a climate revolution, via a mega-package of EU legislation that is set to change how Europeans fly, drive, eat and heat their homes. Macron will be in charge of finalizing the plans — which include a climate levy pushed by France on imports from countries that don’t match or exceed the EU’s climate targets — in the heat of his 2022 reelection campaign, when France takes over the EU presidency next year. Berlin is skeptical of the levy. Macron wants to use it to turn the EU into a green super-power : a sign of the “strategic autonomy” from Washington and Beijing he cherishes. The Biden administration has few easy options for how to respond. — Keep France in check by keeping Germany close: the price of that strategy has so far included giving Berlin a free pass on the nearly complete Nord Stream II pipeline from Russia to Germany (the administration waived sanctions on the company building the pipeline over strenuous Congressional objections). — Go all out to decimate the climate levy proposal: that would likely involve more tariffs against European allies (on top of existing steel and aluminum tariffs), and it would tear apart Biden’s carefully constructed G-7 unity on getting to net zero emissions. — Avoid the levy altogether: by converting Biden’s climate promises into binding targets that meet the EU’s standards, backed by cash from Congress. That’s extremely unlikely before the 2022 mid-terms, and afterwards it may be impossible if Republicans regain control of the House. Washington’s best hope may be to leave others to act as bad cop. There’s no shortage of volunteers, ranging from Germany to China’s President Xi Jinping, who told the Europeans not to resort to trade barriers to reduce emissions. Domestically, it’s easy to see Marine Le Pen — level-pegging with Macron in POLITICO’s poll of polls — arguing Macron is making life’s little luxuries unaffordable for French workers. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already testing out her good cop routine, telling reporters on Tuesday in Brussels: “countries that have ambitious programs with respect to climate change, have a very legitimate interest in ensuring that they address carbon leakage.” Macron’s big gamble could also fail because of public backlash. That happened the last time he pushed a green tax: in 2018 a national gas tax sparked violent protests and an anti-establishment movement — the Yellow Vests. Regardless of who replaces Merkel in Berlin: they’ll be offering the kind of boring stability Macron can only dream of. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author directly at rheath@politico.com or @politicoryan. A message from AstraZeneca: Through COVAX, we are working with partners GAVI (the Vaccine Alliance), WHO (World Health Organization), CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations) and SII (Serum Institute of India) to ensure people around the world have access to safe, effective COVID-19 vaccines, wherever they live and regardless of income level. Learn more here.   NIGHTLY INTERVIEW BETO TAKES ON VOTING RIGHTS — On Monday, as Texas Democrats boarded planes to Washington, D.C., to stop a GOP election reform bill, Beto O’Rourke helped them raise money for their travels from El Paso. This morning, Nightly's Renuka Rayasam visited O’Rourke in his home to talk to him about the Texas voting rights fight. From his living room, surrounded by a giant Ring light, a portrait of Abraham Lincoln, a picture of ASARCO smelter workers, a wall of books and with his dog in tow, O’Rourke talked to Renu about why Washington should pay attention to the state lawmakers as they roam the halls of Congress. This interview has been edited. Texas Republicans have argued that these election reform bills are pretty benign and the changes modest. Why are you against them? Texas is already the hardest state in which to vote. This bill proposes to end measures that have increased access to the ballot box like 24-hour voting and drive-through voting. They started with something similar in the regular session. As they got closer to the final vote, they started to add in provisions within the last 48 hours before the session ended, that would allow Texas to overturn elections and that would create a prohibition on Sunday morning voting. If past is prologue, there’s a very good chance that the bills as introduced in the special session get worse, just as they did in the regular session. Have you talked to people around the state about the on-the-ground impact of these measures? With Powered by People, we traveled around the state, for three weeks, to about two dozen different cities. We were in Rains County, which is the fourth smallest county of the 254 counties in Texas, in Emory. And 125 to 150 people came out to have this conversation on voting rights, including a number of Republicans, including the chairwoman of the Rains County Republican Party. She said, ‘Hey, Beto, I need an ID to get on an airplane. I need an ID to open a checking account. I need an ID to go to a casino, why shouldn’t I have an ID to vote?’ As I’m starting to explain, this woman in the audience raises her hand. She said, ‘Look, I have multiple sclerosis. I have cancer. It is very, very hard for me to get around. I cannot drive and I’m not eligible for a Texas driver’s license. I can’t easily get a ride to an agency that would issue a valid form of voter ID. Even if I were to be able to get that transportation, my out-of-pocket costs would be $120. In essence, this is a form of a poll tax.’ I talked to Republican state Rep. Lyle Larson a few days ago and he said he was worried that the bill would backfire on the party because higher turnout helps Republicans in Texas. What do you make of that? The best argument to make in this case is one for democracy and not for Democrats or Republicans. If we remain fixed on that, then you don’t get bogged down in the partisan advantage for either side. What so concerns me is that the president diagnosed the problem, he specifically mentioned Texas, and then at the end, he said something along the lines of what perhaps Lyle was getting at. He said, ‘Well, we just need to organize, we need to come together, we need to register more.’ You cannot out-organize, out-register this attack on democracy. It requires a real solution. That must come in the form of the For The People Act. That will require changing the rules of the Senate to allow a simple majority to pass voting rights related legislation. Sure, but ending the filibuster doesn’t look likely. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said he would keep calling special sessions until this bill passes. What then? If the president and the Senate fail, then at some point, we face the inevitable, which is that Texas will pass further voting restrictions. I don’t know that you’ll still have a democracy in Texas. The insurance policy, and I hate to even think in these terms, is to continue to register voters in Texas. Our organization, in addition to the fight for voting rights, has been very focused on registering voters. Last year, we registered a little over 196,000 voters in Texas. Over the next 16 months, I’m hoping that we can register more than double that number. Even in our neighborhood, I’ve been knocking on our neighbors’ doors, asking folks if they’re registered. I’ve met some really interesting people and folks are surprised. They’re, ‘What are you doing at my door on a Saturday morning?’   SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Health costs of gun violence exceed $1 billion a year, GAO says: Treating firearm-related injuries in the U.S. costs more than $1 billion annually, with public health programs like Medicaid picking up most of the tab , according to new Government Accountability Office estimates shared with POLITICO. The assessment was requested by House and Senate Democrats last year and comes as the Biden administration is encouraging cities to spend unused Covid relief funds to address gun violence. — Biden directs evacuation flights for Afghan interpreters to begin late July: Afghan interpreters and other nationals who helped the U.S. military during the 20-year conflict will be able to leave beginning in late July, the White House announced today. Afghan nationals in the pipeline for special immigrant visas and their families will wait in one or more locations outside of Afghanistan while the State Department finishes processing their paperwork to enter the United States, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.       — Olivia Rodrigo joins Biden vaccine push to make young people “happy and healthy”: Rodrigo sings on her debut album that she cannot parallel park, but the singer was at the White House today for a different kind of drive — partnering with the White House to get more young people vaccinated against Covid-19. The “good 4 u” singer briefly addressed the media at this afternoon’s press briefing, part of a White House visit where she met with Biden and the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci. — Psaki: Biden unmoved on marijuana legalization despite Schumer legislation: The president still opposes marijuana legalization, Psaki said today, putting him at odds with Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill as it advances legislation to end the federal prohibition on pot. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled draft legislation today that would legalize marijuana as well as expunge non-violent criminal records related to marijuana. Schumer’s proposal, cosponsored by Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) would allow states to decide whether or not to legalize the drug. — Official: U.S. still wants to revive nuclear deal, despite Iran kidnap allegations: Biden’s effort to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal was already in a precarious position. Allegations this week that Tehran planned to kidnap a U.S. citizen are not helping. As word spread of the suspected plot, detailed in a federal indictment, a U.S. official familiar with the issue said the Biden administration will keep pursuing the nuclear agreement’s revival, despite a seeming stall in the negotiations with Tehran. NIGHTLY NUMBER $521 million The funding gap incurred by deploying thousands of troops to guard the Capitol complex following the Jan. 6 insurrection. Emergency funding to reimburse the National Guard for its mission to protect lawmakers and plug other holes in the Pentagon budget are in limbo as Democrats and Republicans argue over a multi-billion dollar package to beef up security at the Capitol.   SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.     PARTING WORDS THEY HEART NY — Gov. Andrew Cuomo lavished praise on Democratic mayoral nominee Eric Adams during a joint appearance in Brooklyn today — and so did Eric Adams. The glad-handing — expected between like-minded Democrats following an election — comes as Cuomo is in a battle for his political future and Adams is still basking in his primary win, fresh from a meeting this week at the White House, Téa Kvetenadze, Anna Gronewold and David Giambusso write. While the governor gushed over Adams during a joint press conference on gun violence, the Democratic nominee was decidedly more cautious in returning the compliments. Adams agreed the two, both moderate Democrats who have been targets of the left, are longstanding “progressives,” united on public safety and criminal justice. But Adams focused more on his own record than that of a governor whose compounding scandals have imperiled his political future. “Eric Adams ... is going to be the next mayor of the city of New York, and I am very, very excited about that,” Cuomo said. “He is going to be extraordinary. I believe that.” Adams appeared to think so, too, and kept the attention on himself. “I am the face of the Democratic party,” he said during his turn at the podium. “I am the original progressive voice in this city.” A message from AstraZeneca: The COVAX initiative is an unprecedented effort to ensure fair and equitable global COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Through COVAX, many more shipments of the COVID-19 vaccine, including our own product, are planned over the coming weeks and months to low- and middle-income countries as the fight against the virus continues. We have always understood vaccination as a global, no-profit, equity-focused undertaking and were the first pharmaceutical company to join COVAX in June 2020. Through COVAX and other global initiatives, we have supplied more than half a billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to 170 countries; 300 million of which have gone to low-income regions. Learn more here.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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